Section VI Of Probability

THOUGH there be no such thing as Chance in the world; our ignorance of the real cause of any event has the same influence on the understanding, and begets² a like species of belief or opinion.

There is certainly a probability, which arises from a superiority of chances on any side; and according as this superiority increases, and surpasses the opposite chances, the probability receives a proportionable increase, and begets still a higher degree of belief or assent³ to that side, in which we discover the superiority. If a dye were marked with one figure or number of spots on four sides, and with another figure or number of spots on the two remaining sides, it would be more probable, that the former would turn up than the latter; though, if it had a thousand sides marked in the same manner, and only one side different, the probability would be much higher, and our belief or expectation of the event more steady and secure. This process of the thought or reasoning may seem trivial and obvious; but to those who consider it more narrowly, it may, perhaps, afford matter for curious speculation⁴.

It seems evident, that, when the mind looks forward to discover the event, which may result from the throw of such a dye, it considers the turning up of each particular side as alike probable; and this is the very nature of chance, to render all the particular events, comprehended in it, entirely⁵ equal. But finding a greater number of sides concur⁶ in the one event than in the other, the mind is carried more frequently to that event, and meets it oftener, in revolving⁷ the various possibilities or chances, on which the ultimate result depends. This concurrence⁸ of several views in one particular event begets immediately, by an inexplicable⁹ contrivance of nature, the sentiment of belief, and gives that event the advantage over its antagonist¹⁰, which is supported by a smaller number of views, and recurs¹¹ less frequently to the mind. If we allow, that belief is nothing but a firmer and stronger conception of an object than what attends the mere¹² fictions of the imagination, this operation may, perhaps, in some measure, be accounted for. The concurrence of these several views or glimpses imprints¹³ the idea more strongly on the imagination; gives it superior force and vigour¹⁴; renders its influence on the passions and affections more sensible; and in a word, begets that reliance or security, which constitutes the nature of belief and opinion.

The case is the same with the probability of causes, as with that of chance. There are some causes, which are entirely uniform and constant in producing a particular effect; and no instance has ever yet been found of any failure or irregularity in their operation. Fire has always burned, and water suffocated¹⁵ every human creature: the production of motion by impulse and gravity is an universal law, which has hitherto admitted of no exception. But there are other causes, which have been found more irregular and uncertain; nor has rhubarb always proved a purge¹⁶, or opium¹⁷ a soporific to every one, who has taken these medicines. It is true, when any cause fails of producing its usual effect, philosophers ascribe not this to any irregularity in nature; but suppose, that some secret causes, in the particular structure of parts, have prevented the operation. Our reasonings, however, and conclusions concerning the event are the same as if this principle had no place. Being determined¹⁸ by custom to transfer the past to the future, in all our inferences; where the past has been entirely regular and uniform, we expect the event with the greatest assurance, and leave no room for any contrary supposition. But where different effects have been found to follow from causes, which are to appearance exactly similar, all these various effects must occur to the mind in transferring the past to the future, and enter into our consideration, when we determine the probability of the event. Though we give the preference to that which has been found most usual, and believe that this effect will exist, we must not overlook the other effects, but must assign to each of them a particular weight and authority, in proportion as we have found it to be more or less frequent. It is more probable, in almost every country of Europe, that there will be frost sometime in January, than that the weather will continue open through out that whole month; though this probability varies according to the different climates, and approaches to a certainty in the more northern kingdoms. Here then it seems evident, that, when we transfer the past to the future, in order to determine the effect, which will result from any cause, we transfer all the different events, in the same proportion as they have appeared in the past, and conceive one to have existed a hundred times, for instance, another ten times, and another once. As a great number of views do here concur in one event, they fortify¹⁹ and confirm it to the imagination, beget¹ that sentiment which we call belief, and give its object the preference above the contrary event, which is not supported by an equal number of experiments, and recurs not so frequently to the thought in transferring the past to the future. Let any one try to account for this operation of the mind upon any of the received systems of philosophy, and he will be sensible of the difficulty. For my part, I shall think it sufficient, if the present hints excite the curiosity of philosophers, and make them sensible how defective²⁰ all common theories are in treating of such curious and such sublime²¹ subjects.

1 beget   

v.引起；产生

参考例句：

• Dragons beget dragons,phoenixes beget phoenixes.龙生龙，凤生凤。
• Economic tensions beget political ones.经济紧张导致政治紧张。

2 begets   

v.为…之生父( beget的第三人称单数 )；产生，引起

参考例句：

• It begets at least seven standard type offspring from such matings. 这类交配中生下至少七个标准型后代。 来自辞典例句
• Violence begets violence until the innocent perish with the guilty. 暴力招致暴力直到这因罪行而无缘无故的毁灭。 来自电影对白

3 assent   

v.批准，认可；n.批准，认可

参考例句：

• I cannot assent to what you ask.我不能应允你的要求。
• The new bill passed by Parliament has received Royal Assent.议会所通过的新方案已获国王批准。

4 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

5 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

6 concur   

v.同意，意见一致，互助，同时发生

参考例句：

• Wealth and happiness do not always concur.财富与幸福并非总是并存的。
• I concur with the speaker in condemning what has been done.我同意发言者对所做的事加以谴责。

7 revolving   

adj.旋转的，轮转式的；循环的v.（使）旋转( revolve的现在分词 )；细想

参考例句：

• The theatre has a revolving stage. 剧院有一个旋转舞台。
• The company became a revolving-door workplace. 这家公司成了工作的中转站。

8 concurrence   

n.同意；并发

参考例句：

• There is a concurrence of opinion between them.他们的想法一致。
• The concurrence of their disappearances had to be more than coincidental.他们同时失踪肯定不仅仅是巧合。

9 inexplicable   

adj.无法解释的，难理解的

参考例句：

• It is now inexplicable how that development was misinterpreted.当时对这一事态发展的错误理解究竟是怎么产生的，现在已经无法说清楚了。
• There are many things which are inexplicable by science.有很多事科学还无法解释。

10 antagonist   

n.敌人，对抗者，对手

参考例句：

• His antagonist in the debate was quicker than he.在辩论中他的对手比他反应快。
• The thing is to know the nature of your antagonist.要紧的是要了解你的对手的特性。

11 recurs   

再发生，复发( recur的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• This theme recurs several times throughout the book. 这一主题在整部书里出现了好几次。
• Leap year recurs every four years. 每四年闰年一次。

12 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

13 imprints   

n.压印( imprint的名词复数 )；痕迹；持久影响

参考例句：

• With each step he took, his boots left muddy imprints on the floor. 她父亲的毡靴一移动，就在地板上压了几个泥圈圈。 来自汉英文学 - 中国现代小说
• In Freudian theory, the imprints are memories, albeit unconscious ones. 在佛洛伊德理论中，这些痕迹就是记忆，只不过它们是无意识的。 来自互联网

14 vigour   

（=vigor）n.智力，体力，精力

参考例句：

• She is full of vigour and enthusiasm.她有热情，有朝气。
• At 40,he was in his prime and full of vigour.他40岁时正年富力强。

15 suffocated   

（使某人）窒息而死( suffocate的过去式和过去分词 )； （将某人）闷死； 让人感觉闷热； 憋气

参考例句：

• Many dogs have suffocated in hot cars. 许多狗在热烘烘的汽车里给闷死了。
• I nearly suffocated when the pipe of my breathing apparatus came adrift. 呼吸器上的管子脱落时，我差点给憋死。

16 purge   

n.整肃，清除，泻药，净化；vt.净化，清除，摆脱；vi.清除，通便，腹泻，变得清洁

参考例句：

• The new president carried out a purge of disloyal army officers.新总统对不忠诚的军官进行了清洗。
• The mayoral candidate has promised to purge the police department.市长候选人答应清洗警察部门。

17 opium   

n.鸦片；adj.鸦片的

参考例句：

• That man gave her a dose of opium.那男人给了她一剂鸦片。
• Opium is classed under the head of narcotic.鸦片是归入麻醉剂一类的东西。

18 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

19 fortify   

v.强化防御，为…设防；加强，强化

参考例句：

• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。
• This treaty forbade the United States to fortify the canal.此条约禁止美国对运河设防。

20 defective   

adj.有毛病的，有问题的，有瑕疵的

参考例句：

• The firm had received bad publicity over a defective product. 该公司因为一件次品而受到媒体攻击。
• If the goods prove defective, the customer has the right to compensation. 如果货品证明有缺陷， 顾客有权索赔。

21 sublime   

adj.崇高的，伟大的；极度的，不顾后果的

参考例句：

• We should take some time to enjoy the sublime beauty of nature.我们应该花些时间去欣赏大自然的壮丽景象。
• Olympic games play as an important arena to exhibit the sublime idea.奥运会，就是展示此崇高理念的重要舞台。