“EVERY SWORD THAT IS DRAWN1 AGAINST GERMANY NOW IS A SWORD DRAWN FOR PEACE”
Europe is at war!
The monstrous2 vanity that was begotten3 by the easy victories of '70 and '71 has challenged the world, and Germany prepares to reap the harvest Bismarck sowed. That trampling4, drilling foolery in the heart of Europe, that has arrested civilisation5 and darkened the hopes of mankind for forty years. German Imperialism6, German militarism, has struck its inevitable7 blow. The victory of Germany will mean the permanent enthronement of the War God over all human affairs. The defeat of Germany may open the way to disarmament and peace throughout the earth.
To those who love peace there can be no other hope in the present conflict than the defeat, the utter discrediting8 of the German legend, the ending for good and all of the blood and iron superstition9, of Krupp, flag-wagging Teutonic Kiplingism, and all that criminal, sham10 efficiency that centres in Berlin. 17Never was war so righteous as war against Germany now. Never has any State in the world so clamoured for punishment.
But be it remembered that Europe’s quarrel is with the German State, not with the German people; with a system, and not with a race. The older tradition of Germany is a pacific and civilising tradition. The temperament11 of the mass of German people is kindly12, sane13 and amiable14. Disaster to the German Army, if it is unaccompanied by any such memorable15 wrong as dismemberment or intolerable indignity16, will mean the restoration of the greatest people in Europe to the fellowship of Western nations. The r?le of England in this huge struggle is plain as daylight. We have to fight. If only on account of the Luxemburg outrage17 we have to fight. If we do not fight, England will cease to be a country to be proud of; it will be a dirt-bath to escape from. But it is inconceivable that we should not fight. And having fought, then in the hour of victory it will be for us to save the liberated18 Germans from vindictive19 treatment, to secure for this great people their right, as one united German-speaking State, to a place in the sun.
First we have to save ourselves and Europe, and then we have to stand between German on the one hand and the Cossack and revenge on the other.
For my own part, I do not doubt that Germany and Austria are doomed20 to defeat in this war. It 18may not be catastrophic defeat, though even that is possible, but it is defeat. There is no destiny in the stars and every sign is false if this is not so.
They have provoked an overwhelming combination of enemies. They have under-rated France. They are hampered21 by a bad social and military tradition. The German is not naturally a good soldier; he is orderly and obedient, but he is not nimble nor quick-witted; since his sole considerable military achievement, his not very lengthy22 march to Paris in 1870 and '71, the conditions of modern warfare23 have been almost completely revolutionised and in a direction that subordinates the massed fighting of unintelligent men to the rapid initiative of individualised soldiers. And, on the other hand, since those years of disaster, the Frenchman has learnt the lesson of humility24; he is prepared now sombrely for a sombre struggle; his is the gravity that precedes astonishing victories. In the air, in the open field, with guns and machines, it is doubtful if anyone fully25 realises the superiority of his quality to the German. This sudden attack may take him aback for a week or so, though I doubt even that, but in the end I think he will hold his own; even without us he will hold his own, and with us then I venture to prophesy26 that within three months from now his Tricolour will be over the Rhine. And even suppose his line gets broken by the first rush. Even then I do not see how the Germans are to get to 19Paris or anywhere near Paris. I do not see how against the strength of the modern defensive27 and the stinging power of an intelligent enemy in retreat, of which we had a little foretaste in South Africa, the exploit of Sedan can be repeated. A retiring German army, on the other hand, will be far less formidable than a retiring French army, because it has less “devil” in it, because it is made up of men taught to obey in masses, because its intelligence is concentrated in its aristocratic officers, because it is dismayed when it breaks ranks. The German army is everything the Conscriptionists dreamt of making our people; it is, in fact, an army about twenty years behind the requirements of contemporary conditions.
On the Eastern frontier the issue is more doubtful because of the uncertainty28 of Russian things. The peculiar29 military strength of Russia, a strength it was not able to display in Manchuria, lies in its vast resources of mounted men. A set invasion of Prussia may be a matter of many weeks, but the raiding possibilities in Eastern Germany are enormous. It is difficult to guess how far the Russian attack will be guided by intelligence, and how far Russia will blunder, but Russia will have to blunder very disastrously30 indeed before she can be put upon the defensive. A Russian raid is far more likely to threaten Berlin than a German to reach Paris.
Meanwhile there is the struggle on the sea. In 20that I am prepared for some rude shocks. The Germans have devoted31 an amount of energy to the creation of an aggressive navy that would have been spent more wisely in consolidating32 their European position. It is probably a thoroughly33 good navy, and ship for ship the equal of our own. But the same lack of invention, the same relative uncreativeness that has kept the German behind the Frenchman in things aerial has made him, regardless of his shallow seas, follow our lead in naval34 matters, and if we have erred35, and I believe we have erred, in overrating the importance of the big battleship, the German has at least very obligingly fallen in with our error. The safest, most effective, place for the German fleet at the present time is the Baltic Sea. On this side of the Kiel Canal, unless I overrate the powers of the water-plane, there is no safe harbour for it. If it goes into port anywhere that port can be ruined, and the bottled-up ships can be destroyed at leisure by aerial bombs. So that if they are on this side of the Kiel Canal they must keep the sea and fight, if we let them, before their coal runs short. Battle in the open sea in this case is their only chance. They will fight against odds36, and with every prospect37 of a smashing, albeit38 we shall certainly have to pay for that victory in ships and men. In the Baltic we shall not be able to get at them without 21the participation39 of Denmark, and they may have a considerable use against Russia. But in the end even there mine and aeroplane and destroyer should do their work.
So I reckon that Germany will be held east and west, and that she will get her fleet practically destroyed. We ought also to be able to sweep her shipping40 off the seas, and lower her flag for ever in Africa and Asia and the Pacific. All the probabilities, it seems to me, point to that. There is no reason why Italy should not stick to her present neutrality, and there is considerable inducement close at hand for both Denmark and Japan to join in, directly they are convinced of the failure of the first big rush on the part of Germany. All these issues will be more or less definitely decided41 within the next two or three months. By that time I believe German Imperialism will be shattered, and it may be possible to anticipate the end of the armaments phase of European history. France, Italy, England, and all the smaller Powers of Europe are now pacific countries; Russia, after this huge war, will be too exhausted42 for further adventure; a shattered Germany will be a revolutionary Germany, as sick of uniforms and the Imperialist idea as France was in 1871, as disillusioned43 about predominance as Bulgaria is to-day. The way will be open at last for all these Western Powers to organise44 22peace. That is why I, with my declared horror of war, have not signed any of these “stop-the-war” appeals and declarations that have appeared in the last few days. Every sword that is drawn against Germany now is a sword drawn for peace.
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1 drawn | |
v.拖,拉,拔出;adj.憔悴的,紧张的 | |
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2 monstrous | |
adj.巨大的;恐怖的;可耻的,丢脸的 | |
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3 begotten | |
v.为…之生父( beget的过去分词 );产生,引起 | |
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4 trampling | |
踩( trample的现在分词 ); 践踏; 无视; 侵犯 | |
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5 civilisation | |
n.文明,文化,开化,教化 | |
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6 imperialism | |
n.帝国主义,帝国主义政策 | |
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7 inevitable | |
adj.不可避免的,必然发生的 | |
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8 discrediting | |
使不相信( discredit的现在分词 ); 使怀疑; 败坏…的名声; 拒绝相信 | |
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9 superstition | |
n.迷信,迷信行为 | |
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10 sham | |
n./adj.假冒(的),虚伪(的) | |
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11 temperament | |
n.气质,性格,性情 | |
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12 kindly | |
adj.和蔼的,温和的,爽快的;adv.温和地,亲切地 | |
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13 sane | |
adj.心智健全的,神志清醒的,明智的,稳健的 | |
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14 amiable | |
adj.和蔼可亲的,友善的,亲切的 | |
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15 memorable | |
adj.值得回忆的,难忘的,特别的,显著的 | |
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16 indignity | |
n.侮辱,伤害尊严,轻蔑 | |
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17 outrage | |
n.暴行,侮辱,愤怒;vt.凌辱,激怒 | |
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18 liberated | |
a.无拘束的,放纵的 | |
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19 vindictive | |
adj.有报仇心的,怀恨的,惩罚的 | |
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20 doomed | |
命定的 | |
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21 hampered | |
妨碍,束缚,限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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22 lengthy | |
adj.漫长的,冗长的 | |
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23 warfare | |
n.战争(状态);斗争;冲突 | |
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24 humility | |
n.谦逊,谦恭 | |
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25 fully | |
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地 | |
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26 prophesy | |
v.预言;预示 | |
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27 defensive | |
adj.防御的;防卫的;防守的 | |
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28 uncertainty | |
n.易变,靠不住,不确知,不确定的事物 | |
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29 peculiar | |
adj.古怪的,异常的;特殊的,特有的 | |
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30 disastrously | |
ad.灾难性地 | |
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31 devoted | |
adj.忠诚的,忠实的,热心的,献身于...的 | |
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32 consolidating | |
v.(使)巩固, (使)加强( consolidate的现在分词 );(使)合并 | |
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33 thoroughly | |
adv.完全地,彻底地,十足地 | |
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34 naval | |
adj.海军的,军舰的,船的 | |
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35 erred | |
犯错误,做错事( err的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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36 odds | |
n.让步,机率,可能性,比率;胜败优劣之别 | |
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37 prospect | |
n.前景,前途;景色,视野 | |
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38 albeit | |
conj.即使;纵使;虽然 | |
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39 participation | |
n.参与,参加,分享 | |
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40 shipping | |
n.船运(发货,运输,乘船) | |
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41 decided | |
adj.决定了的,坚决的;明显的,明确的 | |
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42 exhausted | |
adj.极其疲惫的,精疲力尽的 | |
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43 disillusioned | |
a.不再抱幻想的,大失所望的,幻想破灭的 | |
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44 organise | |
vt.组织,安排,筹办 | |
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