XIII ARMING FOR PEACE OR WAR

The map of Europe is certain to undergo some very decided¹ changes within the next decade, very possibly in less time. Social and economic conditions, let alone the paramount² political ambitions of the individual rulers, must bring about a decided alteration³ in state boundaries in Central Europe. This will be accomplished⁴ either with or without war--with bloodshed most likely. History and human propensities⁵ have shown the inability to settle any vital points by peaceful arbitration⁶ and the more one comes in contact with the forces, obvious and otherwise, directing human affairs, the more one learns the rather disheartening fact that the millennium⁷ is as far off as ever. The prophecies of the old Biblical prophets about wars and rumors⁸ of wars are as pertinent⁹ to-day as before the advent¹⁰ of Christ. The methods may have changed since the conception of the Christian¹¹ religion but the results will be attained¹² now as ever by the right of a mighty¹³ sword arm.

The most virile¹⁴ and aggressive power in the center of Europe is Germany proper--this term of Germany, including the whole of the Teutonic races, such as the German-speaking portion of Austria, Hungary (for your true Hungarian is a keen admirer of strength and force), Holland, Switzerland and in all probability the Norsemen and Viking branches of the Teutonic clan¹⁵, meaning Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Social and commercial aims and aspirations¹⁶ in Sweden, Norway and Denmark, independent as they are and probably always will be, still show a decided trend to Central Germanic cohesion¹⁷. The whole of Europe is roughly divided into three dominant¹⁸ races--the Teutonic, the Latin and the Slavish. The Teutonic has Anglo-Saxon, Germanic and Norse subdivisions. The Latin, Gallic, has the French, Italian and Spanish nations; and the Slavonic comprises the Slavs and Romanic races with their innumerable subdivisions such as Moscovite, Chech, Pole, Croat, Serb, Bulgar, Bojar, etc. These three groups are distinctly different in habits, thoughts, manners and ambitions. Through race and religion they are also deeply antagonistic¹⁹ by reason of its higher commercial development (I do not say education, and art, music or literature, for there your Latin or Slav excels), the Teutonic races have outstripped²⁰ the other two. Commercialism means consolidation²¹ and concentration and since the Napoleonic wars the Germanic races--at the beginning slowly but within the last twenty-five years rapidly--have drawn²² together at an astonishing pace. In countries such as Belgium, Holland, Denmark and Switzerland, each possessing their own petty machinery²³ of expensive government; existent only through the mutual²⁴ jealousies²⁵ of their bigger neighbors, there has grown up a decidedly incorporating spirit. Notwithstanding the natural disinclination of the ruling factions²⁷ of that country, the general mass of the people are by no means averse²⁸ to become members of a vast central European empire, the unswerving ambition of the house of the Hohenzollerns.

Since the days when the Counts of Nuremburg became electors of Brandenburg, from the grosse Kurfurst, Frederick the Great, to the present Emperor, the house of Hohenzollern has shown itself to be the most virile dynasty in modern history. Not always clever, they possessed²⁹ the rare faculty³⁰ of finding, developing and using men having the necessary ability to execute their current policies.

In thoroughly³¹ feudal³² and aristocratic countries such as comprise Central Europe, especially Germany, decided, unswerving aims are necessary. If these policies are conducted in a clear, level-headed manner, judiciously³³ developing the wealth and culture of the general masses, the stability of such a government or throne is well-nigh unshakable.

It has often been spoken and written that in countries such as Germany and Austria, Socialism, to quote but one of the numerous "isms," has undermined existing governmental powers. To a close student, these assertions are absolutely wrong. Teutonic Germanic races have ever been given to deeply analytical³⁴, philosophical³⁵ studies, criticising and dissecting³⁶, the policies of their rulers. But underlying³⁷, you will find a deeply practical sense and appreciation³⁸ of material benefits. The German Socialist³⁹ is in fact a practical dreamer, quite in contrast to his mercurial⁴⁰, effervescent Latin prototype. The rulers of Germany have learned the lesson that the stability of a throne rests in the welfare of her people and everyone must admit that they have succeeded in this respect better than any other dynasty known to history. Germany without doubt is the most uniformly prosperous and civilized⁴¹ country in the world. And therein lies the danger, as no sane⁴² and prosperous business can afford to stand still. Neither can a solvent⁴³ virile nation such as Germany, mark time. For this reason: Two things must happen in the near future. Germany must expand peacefully in Europe, to the northeast and west; or there will be war. The reasons for this I gave in the chapter on "The Isolation⁴⁴ of France."

And that the chances of peaceful and really sensible adjustment are thoroughly discounted among German men of affairs, must be pretty obvious to the careful reader. An intensely practical and saving people such as the Germans would not spend billions in money, a vast amount of time and labor⁴⁵, in perfecting and keeping up a fighting machine without being thoroughly convinced of the necessity of this investment. Strong, wealthy and powerful as Germany is to-day, the strain is tremendous and for this reason alone existing political and geographical⁴⁶ conditions in Europe must undergo a decided change.

These changes are bound to occur but it is hard to set a correct time. It may be to-morrow; it certainly will not be more than a decade hence. The death of the Emperor Francis Joseph will precipitate⁴⁷ it at once--and he is old and feeble.

Secondly⁴⁸, the Church. The mainstay of the Catholic Church rests with the Austrian monarchy⁵⁰ and with the death of the old Emperor, it would--in fact have to--look to some other country and ruler for protection. There is no Catholic ruler in a Catholic country to-day able to support and protect the dignity of the Church. The German Emperor is a Protestant monarch⁴⁹, but he is first and last a Christian, and thanks to his usual keen and far-sighted policy, backed up by strong spiritual convictions, religious dissensions are almost unknown in his empire. The Catholic religion enjoys in no country, save the United States, more real freedom from persecution⁵¹ than it does in Germany. And the Emperor's personal standing²⁶ with the Vatican is excellent. I need only remind the reader of his perennial⁵² visits to the King of Italy when he never fails to visit the Vatican, paying his respects as the ruler of twenty-seven millions of Catholics, if you please, to the keeper of Peter's keys.

In my work, I have met eminent⁵³ dignitaries and princes of the Catholic Church who voiced pretty freely--that is for churchmen--their confidences, willingness of their support to the Emperor's general policies.
THE BUFFER⁵⁴ STATE OF THE NORTH

As Germany has provided herself with a buffer state and ally in Southern Europe, meaning Turkey, so she has cleverly succeeded in creating a similar condition in the extreme north of Europe. Sweden and Norway, at no time friendly to the Moscovite--you need only recall the days of Charles XII--have within the last few years developed a strong martial⁵⁵ feeling against Russian aggression⁵⁶. Both countries are intensely patriotic⁵⁷ and independent and would not on any account tolerate incorporation⁵⁸. Germany does not want Norway and Sweden, and Scandinavia knows that. They also know that Russia, having a free hand, does want them. Hence they are looking towards Germany to keep a national independence. With German help, Sweden and Norway could maintain, transport and place three-quarters of a million of first-class fighting men in the field and that at strategical and crucial points of the Russian Empire.

The personal domination of the house of Hohenzollern even outside political matters is tremendous, by virtue⁵⁹ of great wealth and marriages,--the Emperor's sons having married the most wealthy princesses in Europe--besides the privately⁶⁰ invested fortunes of the Emperor, giving him a tremendous influence in commercial affairs. Wilhelm holds the thunderbolt that will shake the world.

THE END

1 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

2 paramount   

a.最重要的，最高权力的

参考例句：

• My paramount object is to save the Union and destroy slavery.我的最高目标是拯救美国，摧毁奴隶制度。
• Nitrogen is of paramount importance to life on earth.氮对地球上的生命至关重要。

3 alteration   

n.变更，改变；蚀变

参考例句：

• The shirt needs alteration.这件衬衣需要改一改。
• He easily perceived there was an alteration in my countenance.他立刻看出我的脸色和往常有些不同。

4 accomplished   

adj.有才艺的；有造诣的；达到了的

参考例句：

• Thanks to your help,we accomplished the task ahead of schedule.亏得你们帮忙,我们才提前完成了任务。
• Removal of excess heat is accomplished by means of a radiator.通过散热器完成多余热量的排出。

5 propensities   

n.倾向，习性( propensity的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This paper regarded AFT as a criterion to estimate slagging propensities. 文中以灰熔点作为判断煤灰结渣倾向的标准。 来自互联网
• Our results demonstrate that different types of authoritarian regime face different propensities to develop toward democracy. 本文研究结果显示，不同的威权主义政体所面对的民主发展倾向是不同的。 来自互联网

6 arbitration   

n.调停，仲裁

参考例句：

• The wage disagreement is under arbitration.工资纠纷正在仲裁中。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding.双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

7 millennium   

n.一千年，千禧年；太平盛世

参考例句：

• The whole world was counting down to the new millennium.全世界都在倒计时迎接新千年的到来。
• We waited as the clock ticked away the last few seconds of the old millennium.我们静候着时钟滴答走过千年的最后几秒钟。

8 rumors   

n.传闻( rumor的名词复数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷v.传闻( rumor的第三人称单数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷

参考例句：

• Rumors have it that the school was burned down. 有谣言说学校给烧掉了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Rumors of a revolt were afloat. 叛变的谣言四起。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 pertinent   

adj.恰当的；贴切的；中肯的；有关的；相干的

参考例句：

• The expert made some pertinent comments on the scheme.那专家对规划提出了一些中肯的意见。
• These should guide him to pertinent questions for further study.这些将有助于他进一步研究有关问题。

10 advent   

n.(重要事件等的)到来，来临

参考例句：

• Swallows come by groups at the advent of spring. 春天来临时燕子成群飞来。
• The advent of the Euro will redefine Europe.欧元的出现将重新定义欧洲。

11 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

12 attained   

（通常经过努力）实现( attain的过去式和过去分词 )； 达到； 获得； 达到（某年龄、水平、状况）

参考例句：

• She has attained the degree of Master of Arts. 她已获得文学硕士学位。
• Lu Hsun attained a high position in the republic of letters. 鲁迅在文坛上获得崇高的地位。

13 mighty   

adj.强有力的；巨大的

参考例句：

• A mighty force was about to break loose.一股巨大的力量即将迸发而出。
• The mighty iceberg came into view.巨大的冰山出现在眼前。

14 virile   

adj.男性的；有男性生殖力的；有男子气概的；强有力的

参考例句：

• She loved the virile young swimmer.她爱上了那个有男子气概的年轻游泳运动员。
• He wanted his sons to become strong,virile,and athletic like himself.他希望他的儿子们能长得像他一样强壮、阳刚而又健美。

15 clan   

n.氏族，部落，宗族，家族，宗派

参考例句：

• She ranks as my junior in the clan.她的辈分比我小。
• The Chinese Christians,therefore,practically excommunicate themselves from their own clan.所以，中国的基督徒简直是被逐出了自己的家族了。

16 aspirations   

强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 )； 志向； 发送气音； 发 h 音

参考例句：

• I didn't realize you had political aspirations. 我没有意识到你有政治上的抱负。
• The new treaty embodies the aspirations of most nonaligned countries. 新条约体现了大多数不结盟国家的愿望。

17 cohesion   

n.团结，凝结力

参考例句：

• I had to bring some cohesion into the company.我得使整个公司恢复凝聚力。
• The power of culture is deeply rooted in the vitality,creativity and cohesion of a nation. 文化的力量，深深熔铸在民族的生命力、创造力和凝聚力之中。

18 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

19 antagonistic   

adj.敌对的

参考例句：

• He is always antagonistic towards new ideas.他对新思想总是持反对态度。
• They merely stirred in a nervous and wholly antagonistic way.他们只是神经质地，带着完全敌对情绪地骚动了一下。

20 outstripped   

v.做得比…更好，（在赛跑等中）超过( outstrip的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• That manufacturer outstripped all his competitors in sales last year. 那个制造商家去年的销售量超过了所有竞争对手。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The imagination of her mother and herself had outstripped the truth. 母亲和她自己的想象力远远超过了事实。 来自辞典例句

21 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法

22 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

23 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

24 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

25 jealousies   

n.妒忌( jealousy的名词复数 )；妒羡

参考例句：

• They were divided by mutual suspicion and jealousies. 他们因为相互猜疑嫉妒而不和。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• I am tired of all these jealousies and quarrels. 我厌恶这些妒忌和吵架的语言。 来自辞典例句

26 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

27 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

28 averse   

adj.厌恶的；反对的，不乐意的

参考例句：

• I don't smoke cigarettes,but I'm not averse to the occasional cigar.我不吸烟，但我不反对偶尔抽一支雪茄。
• We are averse to such noisy surroundings.我们不喜欢这么吵闹的环境。

29 possessed   

adj.疯狂的；拥有的，占有的

参考例句：

• He flew out of the room like a man possessed.他像着了魔似地猛然冲出房门。
• He behaved like someone possessed.他行为举止像是魔怔了。

30 faculty   

n.才能；学院，系；(学院或系的)全体教学人员

参考例句：

• He has a great faculty for learning foreign languages.他有学习外语的天赋。
• He has the faculty of saying the right thing at the right time.他有在恰当的时候说恰当的话的才智。

31 thoroughly   

adv.完全地，彻底地，十足地

参考例句：

• The soil must be thoroughly turned over before planting.一定要先把土地深翻一遍再下种。
• The soldiers have been thoroughly instructed in the care of their weapons.士兵们都系统地接受过保护武器的训练。

32 feudal   

adj.封建的，封地的，领地的

参考例句：

• Feudal rulers ruled over the country several thousand years.封建统治者统治这个国家几千年。
• The feudal system lasted for two thousand years in China.封建制度在中国延续了两千年之久。

33 judiciously   

adv.明断地，明智而审慎地

参考例句：

• Let's use these intelligence tests judiciously. 让我们好好利用这些智力测试题吧。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His ideas were quaint and fantastic. She brought him judiciously to earth. 他的看法荒廖古怪，她颇有见识地劝他面对现实。 来自辞典例句

34 analytical   

adj.分析的；用分析法的

参考例句：

• I have an analytical approach to every survey.对每项调查我都采用分析方法。
• As a result,analytical data obtained by analysts were often in disagreement.结果各个分析家所得的分析数据常常不一致。

35 philosophical   

adj.哲学家的，哲学上的，达观的

参考例句：

• The teacher couldn't answer the philosophical problem.老师不能解答这个哲学问题。
• She is very philosophical about her bad luck.她对自己的不幸看得很开。

36 dissecting   

v.解剖（动物等）( dissect的现在分词 )；仔细分析或研究

参考例句：

• Another group was dissecting a new film showing locally. 另外一批人正在剖析城里上演的一部新电影。 来自辞典例句
• Probe into Dissecting Refraction Method Statics Processing under Complicated Surface Conditions. 不同地表条件下土壤侵蚀的坡度效应。 来自互联网

37 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

38 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

39 socialist   

n.社会主义者；adj.社会主义的

参考例句：

• China is a socialist country,and a developing country as well.中国是一个社会主义国家，也是一个发展中国家。
• His father was an ardent socialist.他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。

40 mercurial   

adj.善变的，活泼的

参考例句：

• He was of a mercurial temperament and therefore unpredictable.他是个反复无常的人，因此对他的行为无法预言。
• Our desires and aversions are mercurial rulers.我们的欲望与嫌恶是变化无常的统治者。

41 civilized   

a.有教养的，文雅的

参考例句：

• Racism is abhorrent to a civilized society. 文明社会憎恶种族主义。
• rising crime in our so-called civilized societies 在我们所谓文明社会中日益增多的犯罪行为

42 sane   

adj.心智健全的，神志清醒的，明智的，稳健的

参考例句：

• He was sane at the time of the murder.在凶杀案发生时他的神志是清醒的。
• He is a very sane person.他是一个很有头脑的人。

43 solvent   

n.溶剂；adj.有偿付能力的

参考例句：

• Gasoline is a solvent liquid which removes grease spots.汽油是一种能去掉油污的有溶解力的液体。
• A bankrupt company is not solvent.一个破产的公司是没有偿还债务的能力的。

44 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

45 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

46 geographical   

adj.地理的；地区(性)的

参考例句：

• The current survey will have a wider geographical spread.当前的调查将在更广泛的地域范围內进行。
• These birds have a wide geographical distribution.这些鸟的地理分布很广。

47 precipitate   

adj.突如其来的；vt.使突然发生；n.沉淀物

参考例句：

• I don't think we should make precipitate decisions.我认为我们不应该贸然作出决定。
• The king was too precipitate in declaring war.国王在宣战一事上过于轻率。

48 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

49 monarch   

n.帝王，君主，最高统治者

参考例句：

• The monarch's role is purely ceremonial.君主纯粹是个礼仪职位。
• I think myself happier now than the greatest monarch upon earth.我觉得这个时候比世界上什么帝王都快乐。

50 monarchy   

n.君主，最高统治者；君主政体，君主国

参考例句：

• The monarchy in England plays an important role in British culture.英格兰的君主政体在英国文化中起重要作用。
• The power of the monarchy in Britain today is more symbolical than real.今日英国君主的权力多为象徵性的，无甚实际意义。

51 persecution   

n. 迫害,烦扰

参考例句：

• He had fled from France at the time of the persecution. 他在大迫害时期逃离了法国。
• Their persecution only serves to arouse the opposition of the people. 他们的迫害只激起人民对他们的反抗。

52 perennial   

adj.终年的；长久的

参考例句：

• I wonder at her perennial youthfulness.我对她青春常驻感到惊讶。
• There's a perennial shortage of teachers with science qualifications.有理科教学资格的老师一直都很短缺。

53 eminent   

adj.显赫的，杰出的，有名的，优良的

参考例句：

• We are expecting the arrival of an eminent scientist.我们正期待一位著名科学家的来访。
• He is an eminent citizen of China.他是一个杰出的中国公民。

54 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

55 martial   

adj.战争的，军事的，尚武的，威武的

参考例句：

• The sound of martial music is always inspiring.军乐声总是鼓舞人心的。
• The officer was convicted of desertion at a court martial.这名军官在军事法庭上被判犯了擅离职守罪。

56 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

57 patriotic   

adj.爱国的，有爱国心的

参考例句：

• His speech was full of patriotic sentiments.他的演说充满了爱国之情。
• The old man is a patriotic overseas Chinese.这位老人是一位爱国华侨。

58 incorporation   

n.设立，合并，法人组织

参考例句：

• The incorporation of air bubbles in the glass spoiled it.玻璃含有气泡，使它质量降低。
• The company will be retooled after the incorporation.合并之后的公司要进行重组。

59 virtue   

n.德行，美德；贞操；优点；功效，效力

参考例句：

• He was considered to be a paragon of virtue.他被认为是品德尽善尽美的典范。
• You need to decorate your mind with virtue.你应该用德行美化心灵。

60 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。