... Implicit4 in all these definitions is the assumption that the humanconglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid5 statisticaltreatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate2 may be determined6 bySeldon's First Theorem which ... A further necessary assumption is that thehuman conglomerate be itself unaware7 of psychohistoric analysis in orderthat its reactions be truly random8 ...
The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon.
Functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social andeconomic forces as ...
ENCYCLOPEDIA9 GALACTICA"Good afternoon, sir," said Gaal. "I?I?
"You didn't think we were to meet before tomorrow? Ordinarily, we would nothave. It is just that if we are to use your services, we must work quickly.
It grows continually more difficult to obtain recruits.""I don't understand, sir.""You were talking to a man on the observation tower, were you not?""Yes. His first name is Jerril. I know no more about him. ""His name is nothing. He is an agent of the Commission of Public Safety. Hefollowed you from the space-port.""But why? I am afraid I am very confused.""Did the man on the tower say nothing about me?"Gaal hesitated, "He referred to you as Raven10 Seldon.""Did he say why?""He said you predict disaster.""I do. What does Trantor mean to you?"Everyone seemed to be asking his opinion of Trantor. Gaal felt incapable11 ofresponse beyond the bare word, "Glorious.""You say that without thinking. What of psychohistory?""I haven't thought of applying it to the problem.""Before you are done with me, young man, you will learn to applypsychohistory to all problems as a matter of course. 朞bserve." Seldonremoved his calculator pad from the pouch12 at his belt. Men said he kept onebeneath his pillow for use in moments of wakefulness. Its gray, glossyfinish was slightly worn by use. Seldon's nimble fingers, spotted13 now withage, played along the files and rows of buttons that filled its surface.
Red symbols glowed out from the upper tier.
He said, "That represents the condition of the Empire at present."He waited.
Gaal said finally, "Surely that is not a complete representation.""No, not complete," said Seldon. "I am glad you do not accept my wordblindly. However, this is an approximation which will serve to demonstratethe proposition. Will you accept that?""Subject to my later verification of the derivation of the function, yes."Gaal was carefully avoiding a possible trap.
"Good. Add to this the known probability of Imperial assassination,viceregal revolt, the contemporary recurrence14 of periods of economicdepression, the declining rate of planetary explorations, the. ...."He proceeded. As each item was mentioned, new symbols sprang to life at histouch, and melted into the basic function which expanded and changed.
Gaal stopped him only once. "I don't see the validity of thatset-transformation."Seldon repeated it more slowly.
Gaal said, "But that is done by way of a forbidden sociooperation.""Good. You are quick, but not yet quick enough. It is not forbidden in thisconnection. Let me do it by expansions."The procedure was much longer and at its end, Gaal said, humbly15, "Yes, Isee now."Finally, Seldon stopped. "This is Trantor three centuries from now. How doyou interpret that? Eh?" He put his head to one side and waited.
Gaal said, unbelievingly, "Total destruction! But ?but that is impossible.
Trantor has never been ?
Seldon was filled with the intense excitement of a man whose body only hadgrown old. "Come, come. You saw how the result was arrived at. Put it intowords. Forget the symbolism for a moment."Gaal said, "As Trantor becomes more specialized16, it be comes morevulnerable, less able to defend itself. Further, as it becomes more andmore the administrative17 center of Empire, it becomes a greater prize. Asthe Imperial succession becomes more and more uncertain, and the feudsamong the great families more rampant18, social responsibility disappears. ""Enough. And what of the numerical probability of total destruction withinthree centuries?""I couldn't tell.""Surely you can perform a field-differentiation?"Gaal felt himself under pressure. He was not offered the calculator pad. Itwas held a foot from his eyes. He calculated furiously and felt hisforehead grow slick with sweat.
He said, "About 85%?""Not bad," said Seldon, thrusting out a lower lip, "but not good. Theactual figure is 92.5%."Gaal said, "And so you are called Raven Seldon? I have seen none of this inthe journals.""But of course not. This is unprintable. Do you suppose the Imperium couldexpose its shakiness in this manner. That is a very simple demonstration19 inpsychohistory. But some of our results have leaked out among thearistocracy.""That's bad.""Not necessarily. All is taken into account.""But is that why I'm being investigated?""Yes. Everything about my project is being investigated.""Are you in danger, sir?""Oh, yes. There is probability of 1.7% that I will be executed, but ofcourse that will not stop the project. We have taken that into account aswell. Well, never mind. You will meet me, I suppose, at the Universitytomorrow?""I will," said Gaal.
点击
收听单词发音
收听单词发音 |
1
conglomerates
|
|
| n.（多种经营的）联合大企业( conglomerate的名词复数 )；砾岩；合成物；组合物 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
2
conglomerate
|
|
| n.综合商社，多元化集团公司 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
3
stimuli
|
|
| n.刺激（物） | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
4
implicit
|
|
| a.暗示的，含蓄的，不明晰的，绝对的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
5
valid
|
|
| adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
6
determined
|
|
| adj.坚定的；有决心的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
7
unaware
|
|
| a.不知道的，未意识到的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
8
random
|
|
| adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
9
encyclopedia
|
|
| n.百科全书 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
10
raven
|
|
| n.渡鸟，乌鸦；adj.乌亮的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
11
incapable
|
|
| adj.无能力的，不能做某事的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
12
pouch
|
|
| n.小袋，小包，囊状袋；vt.装...入袋中，用袋运输；vi.用袋送信件 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
13
spotted
|
|
| adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
14
recurrence
|
|
| n.复发，反复，重现 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
15
humbly
|
|
| adv. 恭顺地，谦卑地 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
16
specialized
|
|
| adj.专门的，专业化的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
17
administrative
|
|
| adj.行政的，管理的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
18
rampant
|
|
| adj.(植物)蔓生的；狂暴的，无约束的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
19
demonstration
|
|
| n.表明，示范，论证，示威 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
| 欢迎访问英文小说网 |