INFLUENCE OF MARRIAGE ON THE DEATH-RATE.

The Royal Commission on the Law of Marriage has attracted attention to many singular and instructive results of modern statistical¹ inquiry². Not the least important of these is the apparent influence of marriage on the death-rate. For several years it has been noticed by statisticians that the death-rate of unmarried men is considerably³ higher than the death-rate of married men and widowers⁴. I believe that Dr. Stark⁵, Registrar-General for Scotland, was one of the first to call attention to this peculiarity⁶, as evidenced by the results of two years’ returns for Scotland. But the law has since been confirmed by a far wider range of statistical inquiry. The relative proportion between the death-rates of the married and of the unmarried is not absolutely uniform in different countries, but it is239 fairly enough represented by the following table, which exhibits the mortality per thousand of married and unmarried men in Scotland:—
Ages.    Husbands and Widowers.    Unmarried.
20 to 25       6·26      12·31
25 to 80       8·23      14·94
30 to 35       8·65      15·94
35 to 40      11·67      16·02
40 to 45      14·07      18·35
45 to 50      17·04      21·18
50 to 55      19·54      26·34
55 to 60      26·14      28·54
60 to 65      35·63      44·54
65 to 70      52·93      60·21
70 to 75      81·56    102·71
75 to 80    117·85    143·94
80 to 85    173·88    195·40

From this table we are to understand that out of one hundred thousand married persons (including widowers) from 20 to 25 years old, 626 die in the course of each year; while out of a similar number of unmarried persons, between the same ages, no less than 1,231 die in each year. And in like manner all the other lines of the table are to be interpreted.

Commenting on the evidence supplied by the above figures, Dr. Stark stated that ‘bachelorhood is more destructive to life than the most unwholesome trades, or than residence in an unwholesome house or district, where there has never been the most distant attempt at sanitary⁷ improvement of any kind.’ And this view has been very generally accepted, not only by the public, but by professed⁸ statisticians. Yet, as a matter of fact, I believe that no such inferences can legitimately⁹ be240 drawn¹⁰ from the above table. Dr. Stark appears to me to have fallen into the mistake, which M. Quetelet tells us is so common, of trying to make his statistics carry more weight than they are capable of bearing. It is important that the matter should be put in a just light, for the Royal Commission on the Law of Marriage has revealed no more striking fact than that of the prevalence of immature¹¹ marriages, and such reasoning as Dr. Stark’s certainly cannot tend to discourage these unwise alliances. If death strikes down in five years only half as many of those who are married as of those who are unmarried between the ages of 20 and 25 (as appears from the above table), and if the proportion of deaths between the two classes goes on continually diminishing in each successive lustre¹² (as is also shown by the above table), it seems reasonable to infer that the death-rate would be even more strikingly disproportionate for persons between the ages of fifteen and twenty than for persons between the ages of twenty and twenty-five. I believe, indeed, that if Dr. Stark had extended his table to include the former ages, the result would have been such as I have indicated. Yet few will suppose that very youthful marriages can exercise so singularly beneficial an effect.

To many Dr. Stark’s conclusion may appear to be a natural and obvious sequitur from the evidence upon which it is founded. Admitting the facts—and I see no reason for doubting them—it may appear at first sight that we are bound to accept the conclusion that241 matrimony is favourable¹³ to longevity¹⁴. Yet the consideration of a few parallel cases will suffice to show how small a foundation the figures I have quoted supply for such a conclusion. What would be thought, for example, of any of the following inferences?—Among hot-house plants there is observed a greater variety and brilliance¹⁵ of colour than among those which are kept in the open air; therefore the housing of plants conduces to the splendour of their colouring. Or again: The average height of Life Guardsmen is greater than that of the rest of the male population; therefore to be a Life Guardsman conduces to tallness of stature¹⁶. Or to take an example still more closely illustrative of Dr. Stark’s reasoning: The average longevity of noblemen exceeds that of untitled persons; therefore to have a title is conducive¹⁷ to longevity; or borrowing his words, to remain without a title ‘is more destructive to life than the most unwholesome trades, or than residence in an unwholesome house or district, where there has never been the most distant attempt at sanitary improvement of any kind.’

We know that the inference is absurd in each of the above instances, and we are able at once to show where the flaw in the reasoning lies. We know that splendid flowers are more commonly selected for housing, and that Life Guardsmen are chosen for their tallness, so that we are prevented from falling into the mistake of ascribing splendour of colour in the one instance, or tallness in the other, to the influence of causes which have nothing whatever to do with those attributes;242 nor is anyone likely to ascribe the longevity of our nobility to the possession of a title. Yet there is nothing in any one of the above inferences which is in reality more unsound than Dr. Stark’s inference from the mortality bills, when the latter are considered with due reference to the principles of interpretation¹⁸ which statisticians are bound to follow.

The fact is, that in dealing¹⁹ with statistics the utmost care is required in order that our inferences may not be pushed beyond the evidence afforded by our facts. In the present instance, we have simply to deal with the fact that the death-rate of unmarried men is higher than the death-rate of married men and widowers. From this fact we cannot reason as Dr. Stark has done to a simple conclusion. All that we can do is to show that one of three conclusions must be adopted:—Either matrimony is favourable (directly or indirectly) to longevity, in a degree sufficient wholly to account for the observed peculiarity; or a principle of selection—the effect of which is such as, on the whole, to fill the ranks of married men from among the healthier and stronger portion of the community—operates in a sufficient degree to account wholly for the observed death-rates; or lastly, the observed death-rates are due to the combination, in some unknown proportion, of the two causes just mentioned.

No reasonable doubt can exist, as it seems to me, that the third is the true conclusion to be drawn from the evidence supplied by the mortality bills. Unfortunately, the conclusion thus deduced is almost valueless,243 because we are left wholly in doubt as to the proportion which subsists²⁰ between the effects to be ascribed to the two causes thus shown to be in operation.

It scarcely required the evidence of statistics to prove that each cause must operate to some extent.

It is perfectly²¹ obvious, on the one hand, that although hundreds of men who would be held by insurance companies to be ‘bad lives’ may contract marriage, yet on the whole a principle of selection is in operation which must tend to bring the healthier portion of the male community into the ranks of the married, and to leave the unhealthier in the state of bachelorhood. A little consideration will show also that, on the whole, the members of the less healthy trades, very poor persons, habitual²² drunkards, and others whose prospects²³ of long life are unfavourable, must (on the average of a large number) be more likely to remain unmarried than those more favourably²⁴ situated²⁵. Another fact drawn from the Registrar-General’s return suffices to prove the influence of poverty on the marriage-rate. I refer to the fact that marriages are invariably more numerous in seasons of prosperity than at other times. Improvident²⁶ marriages are undoubtedly²⁷ numerous, but prosperity and adversity have their influence, and that influence not unimportant, on the marriage returns.

On the other hand, it is perfectly obvious that the life of a married man is likely to be more favourable to longevity than that of a bachelor. The mere²⁸ fact that a man has a wife and family depending upon244 him will suffice to render him more careful of his health, less ready to undertake dangerous employments, and so on; and there are other reasons which will occur to everyone for considering the life of a married man better (in the sense of the insurance companies) than that of a bachelor. In fact, while we are compelled to reject Dr. Stark’s statement that ‘bachelorhood is more destructive to life than the most unwholesome trades, or than residence in an unwholesome house or district, where there has never been the most distant attempt at sanitary improvement of any kind,’ we may safely accept his opinion that statistics ‘prove the truth of one of the first natural laws revealed to man—“It is not good that man should live alone.”’

(From the Daily News, October 17, 1868.)

1 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

2 inquiry   

n.打听，询问，调查，查问

参考例句：

• Many parents have been pressing for an inquiry into the problem.许多家长迫切要求调查这个问题。
• The field of inquiry has narrowed down to five persons.调查的范围已经缩小到只剩5个人了。

3 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

4 widowers   

n.鳏夫( widower的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even elderly widows and widowers choose to live on their own. 连年迈的寡妇和鳏夫都选择独自生活。 来自互联网
• His works contain Widowers' House, Mrs. Warren's Profession, a play about the economic oppression of women. 他的早期代表作品包括《鳏夫的房产》，《沃伦夫人的职业》的主题是对妇女们经济上的压迫。 来自互联网

5 stark   

adj.荒凉的；严酷的；完全的；adv.完全地

参考例句：

• The young man is faced with a stark choice.这位年轻人面临严峻的抉择。
• He gave a stark denial to the rumor.他对谣言加以完全的否认。

6 peculiarity   

n.独特性，特色；特殊的东西；怪癖

参考例句：

• Each country has its own peculiarity.每个国家都有自己的独特之处。
• The peculiarity of this shop is its day and nigth service.这家商店的特点是昼夜服务。

7 sanitary   

adj.卫生方面的，卫生的，清洁的，卫生的

参考例句：

• It's not sanitary to let flies come near food.让苍蝇接近食物是不卫生的。
• The sanitary conditions in this restaurant are abominable.这家饭馆的卫生状况糟透了。

8 professed   

公开声称的，伪称的，已立誓信教的

参考例句：

• These, at least, were their professed reasons for pulling out of the deal. 至少这些是他们自称退出这宗交易的理由。
• Her manner professed a gaiety that she did not feel. 她的神态显出一种她并未实际感受到的快乐。

9 legitimately   

ad.合法地；正当地，合理地

参考例句：

• The radio is legitimately owned by the company. 该电台为这家公司所合法拥有。
• She looked for nothing save what might come legitimately and without the appearance of special favour. 她要的并不是男人们的额外恩赐，而是合法正当地得到的工作。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

10 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

11 immature   

adj.未成熟的，发育未全的，未充分发展的

参考例句：

• Tony seemed very shallow and immature.托尼看起来好像很肤浅，不夠成熟。
• The birds were in immature plumage.这些鸟儿羽翅未全。

12 lustre   

n.光亮，光泽；荣誉

参考例句：

• The sun was shining with uncommon lustre.太阳放射出异常的光彩。
• A good name keeps its lustre in the dark.一个好的名誉在黑暗中也保持它的光辉。

13 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

14 longevity   

n.长命；长寿

参考例句：

• Good habits promote longevity.良好的习惯能增长寿命。
• Human longevity runs in families.人类的长寿具有家族遗传性。

15 brilliance   

n.光辉，辉煌，壮丽，（卓越的）才华，才智

参考例句：

• I was totally amazed by the brilliance of her paintings.她的绘画才能令我惊歎不已。
• The gorgeous costume added to the brilliance of the dance.华丽的服装使舞蹈更加光彩夺目。

16 stature   

n.（高度）水平，（高度）境界，身高，身材

参考例句：

• He is five feet five inches in stature.他身高5英尺5英寸。
• The dress models are tall of stature.时装模特儿的身材都较高。

17 conducive   

adj.有益的，有助的

参考例句：

• This is a more conducive atmosphere for studying.这样的氛围更有利于学习。
• Exercise is conducive to good health.体育锻炼有助于增强体质。

18 interpretation   

n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理

参考例句：

• His statement admits of one interpretation only.他的话只有一种解释。
• Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing.分析与说明是个很主观的事情。

19 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

20 subsists   

v.（靠很少的钱或食物）维持生活，生存下去( subsist的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• This plant subsists in water holes only during the rainy season. 这种植物只有雨季在水坑里出现。 来自辞典例句
• The hinge is that the enterprise subsists on suiting the development of data communication. 适应数据通信的发展是通信企业生存的关键。 来自互联网

21 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。

22 habitual   

adj.习惯性的；通常的，惯常的

参考例句：

• He is a habitual criminal.他是一个惯犯。
• They are habitual visitors to our house.他们是我家的常客。

23 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

24 favourably   

adv. 善意地，赞成地 =favorably

参考例句：

• The play has been favourably commented by the audience. 本剧得到了观众的好评。
• The open approach contrasts favourably with the exclusivity of some universities. 这种开放式的方法与一些大学的封闭排外形成了有利的对比。

25 situated   

adj.坐落在...的，处于某种境地的

参考例句：

• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。
• She is awkwardly situated.她的处境困难。

26 improvident   

adj.不顾将来的，不节俭的，无远见的

参考例句：

• Her improvident speech at the meeting has set a stone rolling.她在会上的发言缺乏远见，已产生严重后果。
• He must bear the consequences of his improvident action.他必须对自己挥霍浪费所造成的后果负责。

27 undoubtedly   

adv.确实地，无疑地

参考例句：

• It is undoubtedly she who has said that.这话明明是她说的。
• He is undoubtedly the pride of China.毫无疑问他是中国的骄傲。

28 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。