The personal, rather than the communal2, advance is the main consideration, inasmuch as it is personal initiative of the most able which helps the rest of the community forward. The greatest improvements are the result of a single mind, animating3 perhaps a small group of similar minds. We all know how such great benefits as prison reform, the abolition4 of slavery, the restriction5 of child labour, and similar movements of which the public are now proud, were each originated by one mind, and worked by a small group in the teeth of the bitterest opposition6 to start with. It goes without saying that the same is the case in all inventions; it takes not only an inventor, but also a commercial organiser (seldom one and the same man), to help the public to any improvement.79 If ten thousand men could be picked out of any one country, so as to remove the most fruitful minds, that country would come to an entire standstill, and would continue in mechanical repetition until a fresh generation gave a chance of the rise of original minds. Probably not more than one in a thousand minds causes useful advance among the others. And the majority of men lead automatic lives, of which the reflexes have been trained by teaching and experience to do what is required, and the daily actions are performed without a single real thought, but only in response to external stimuli7 of sights and orders. It is therefore in the development of the able individuals, and in giving every chance to such whenever they arise, that the hopes of the great mass must lie.
It is perhaps not too much to say that all general popular advance of the community at large is based on the prevention of waste. Wherever waste exists improvement is possible; and we need not trouble ourselves much about the construction of the social organism, so long as we can lay our finger on the waste and check it. As with a machine we know the amount of force that is put into it, and can see what percentage is yielded up usefully in its output, so it is with a community. The design of the nature and quality of work done by the community or the machine is another matter; though that again comes under the head of waste if the quality is bad. We will now look more precisely9 at the gains by prevention of waste in health, life, energy, and renewal10.
The saving of health is one of the greatest steps that has been made, as it has been suddenly performed80 within a generation. Man had unconsciously conquered bacteria to a great extent by the invention of cooking, and by the experimental learning of cleanliness; but the scientific attack on bacteria and protozoa has given the prospect12 of preventing all epidemic13 disease, and largely increasing the efficiency of man in the most fertile countries. This advance means the economic exploitation of the whole tropical regions, which—with cheap transport—will provide an immense fresh basis for the advantage of other lands. The gain in antiseptic surgery, giving safety for operation on all internal organs, as it only affects the small proportion of sick and injured, is not of so much general importance as the conquest of the microorganisms, which have hitherto ruled the best part of the world. It is in the complete domination over all forms of life, however minute, that we shall find one of the greatest lines for future advance. Only a small band of workers, about one in a hundred million of the world's population, has made this advance possible.
The saving of life is another great step which will give man far higher power; not only in the mere14 hindrance15 of death, but far more in the increased power of work per day. The power of continuity of work is a growth of civilisation16; and it is obvious that a man who can do twelve hours' work per day, instead of six hours, not only lives virtually twice as long, but costs the community only half as much for what he does. This continuity of work, or industry, is seen in both high and low classes of work. Some races can do more than twice as much agricultural work in the day as others. The same is true of scientific or81 commercial work. And there have been some of the highest minds which could only work for two hours a day, while others could work up to fourteen or sixteen hours daily. This power of continuity of work is obviously then a matter improvable by cultivation17, both in the individual and in the race; and as it may easily double a man's effective life it is certainly a line of great promise for the future.
Another direction for saving a portion of life is in the rapidity of thought and action. It is easy to find a difference of two or three times the amount of work per hour between different men. All that we have just said about the continuity of work applies to its rapidity; and a large gain may be looked for in cultivating pace and vigour18. We need hardly note that trades-union ideals would destroy instead of promoting these most promising19 and fruitful lines of advance.
In transport from place to place the movement at fifty miles an hour instead of five means a gain of several years of life to most men. But here we have probably reached the useful limits, as any possible further saving would not yield much more time.
The saving of energy is another form of the question of continuity of work. The ideal of work—as varied20 as possible, and as interesting as possible—being the joy of life and the greatest good, is an aim hardly yet grasped by more than a very few persons. To the majority, work is a hateful thing, to be done solely21 in order to get means for enjoyment22 in some other way. This essentially23 savage24 and uncultivated ideal needs to be steadily25 rooted out by the better adaptation of work to the individual. An education which started by cultivating the natural interests,82 using them for mental development, and only superadding what further knowledge was really requisite26 for life, would greatly help to eradicate27 the false and low idea of work which prevails. There is a common feeling that business cannot be interesting in itself; but there are few, if any, businesses which if intelligently followed will not yield scope for some real interest of observation and study. The greater application of mind to the work of life will leave far less scope for fruitless amusement and—as a great painter remarked—"there is nothing of interest in life to be compared with work."
To minds which are incapable28 of continuity of work, or of relaxation29 by variation of work, mere amusements are needful. Darwin's health prevented more than two hours' work a day, and the flimsiest of novels was his needful relaxation. But the need of amusement for this purpose must be taken as the index of incapacity for continuity—as an unfortunate failure of mental and physical health—as a disastrous30 defect when it occurs along with great abilities which can only thus work at low speed. The same may be said of athletics31; the need of physical exercise outside of work is an index of incapacity for physical health adapted to the work, an unfortunate failure of those who are of defective32 condition. The idea that no one can be too strong and robust33 is a wild exaggeration; physical strength needs to be proportioned to the nature of work, and a slender wiry man will do far better for indoor life than a plethoric34 mass of brawn35 and muscle which needs much exercise to keep in health. Unlimited36 robustness37 is not an absolute good, to be pursued at all costs, or else we should83 make every schoolboy a Hun, living without shelter, and feeding on flaps of raw meat which form the only saddle of his horse. In brief, the need of athletics shows a weakness of body to be remedied, or a physical over-development unsuited to the person's work in life; it is the mark of unfitness, and the need ceases so soon as a man is adapted to his work. The need of spending any considerable time on amusement is the sign of an incapacity, which has to be removed by strengthening the mind in the individual or in the race. The passion for amusement is the sure evidence of a defective education, which has left the mind incapable of continuity, or bare of interests. An important advance therefore lies in better use of the time which is at present wasted in fruitless action of mind or body; better adaptation and education for the work of life will gradually raise the standard so that this form of waste will be avoided. We do not expect a uniform type of horse to be equally adapted to draught38 or hunting or racing39; and similarly we ought to specialise on different types of men fitted for agriculture, or mechanical work, or office work.
The great subject of the waste by renewal of the population in each generation has an immense variety of aspects; but the essential importance of it is seen when we reflect that about half the labour of the world is swallowed up in this renewal. The burden of production, of rearing, of education, and the waste and loss in the process, exceeds that of any other activity, such as supply of food or shelter, for the adult. Hence any possible saving in this great mass of labour, or reduction of waste, is of the first importance to the individual and the race.
84
Those who have proposed temporary marriage hardly seem to have considered that one of the most important economies adopted, perhaps dating from a pre-human period, was that of permanent marriage. This saved at a stroke the enormous loss of time and energy in the rivalries40 of repeated mating. The gain to the race by leaving the members free for continuous work is greater than the loss by reproducing inferior stocks. There is no need for the system to have been intentionally41 adopted for this purpose; but merely a race which economised the time of repeated mating would soon oust42 a race in which it was customary. For this reason any fancied reconstruction43 of society without permanent marriage is entirely44 futile45; even if it could be universal, yet the advantage given to the lazy and emotional type of man above the continuous worker would soon pull down the race. One frequent argument for a more revocable union is the number of divorces effected or desired. But nearly all such are among people whose judgment46 in any other line of life would certainly not be trusted, and who habitually47 get into trouble over other communal obligations. To abolish marriage for their benefit would be as reasonable as allowing all debts to be repudiated48 because such people cannot pay their I.O.U.'s. There is moreover a great gain in permanent marriage when judiciously49 effected, by the new mental pivot50 of a sense of permanent ensurance of various of the conditions of life, which liberates51 the attention of both parties from a large number of points, and leaves each free to concentrate attention on a partial phase of feelings and duties. It is a far higher and a spiritual counterpart85 of a successful business partnership52, where each member trusts the other to manage a different part of the affair. All this mental economy and help would be impossible without permanence.
Another wastage which has been greatly reduced in modern times is that of high birth rate and high death rate. The allusions53 in mediaeval times show a state much like that now described among the Slovenes, where incessant54 maternity55 is only balanced by the reduction of children due to filth56, neglect, and bad conditions. The modern ideal of a small family carefully tended is an immense advance, both for the individual life and for the saving of waste. But its benefits should be sought and not commanded. If the neglectful, dirty, and wasteful57 stocks of low type in our midst let their children die off, it is the only balance to their overgrowth, which would soon outnumber the better class of population. The right end to begin at is by insisting on hard work and tidy living, under penal58 enactments59; the saving of the children may then be left to take care of itself. To begin at the sentimental60 end, as is now the fashion, is to degrade the whole race by swamping it with the worst stocks.
The line of progress in invention is the remorseless "scrapping62" of poorer machines. The more serious the progress becomes, the more scrapping needs to be done. We must not be surprised then if a sign of human progress of mind and body should be the large number of inefficients who are thrown out of work on the scrap61 heap of society.
In another direction advance has been made by general lengthening64 of the stages of life. The early86 marriage and early deaths of past times brought the cost of renewal at every twenty years, which was a much severer tax on the community than renewal in thirty or forty years. There is probably also a great benefit in the higher development of parents before each generation. It is well recognised how the later children of a family are more able, and of a more finished quality than the earlier; great examples of such a view in older literature being Joseph and David, and in our own history, Alfred. The longer growth of mind before each generation appears to be a great gain of advance for the race. Among the lower races, by far the most advanced are those like the Zulu, which have a long period of hard training and active life before settling down to family duties.
The often debated problem dealing65 with the human refuse of bad stocks is one which presses most on an advanced civilisation. We will not do like the Christian66 Norseman, when he put the ne'er-do-weel family into a wide grave in the churchyard, and wiped his hands of them. We will not even leave them to exterminate67 themselves by their own follies68, vices69, and ignorance. But if the state takes up the burden of such wastrels70 it must have an entire control of them. Responsibility without rule is worse than rule without responsibility. The only safe course is a rigorous enforcement of parental71 duties; with the alternative of penal servitude in state workshops, the mother and children together, the father elsewhere. There is no middle course, of semi-maintenance by school meals, which will not injure the children by their being correspondingly neglected at home, injure87 the parents by lowering the spur of necessity to work, and injure the state by flooding it with the worst types.
Much more drastic treatment of the unfit has been advocated, as by Dr. Rentoul. In a future period of civilisation a logical course of treatment might have a chance of adoption72; but in our age any serious changes of the habits of thought and action will not be tolerated, unless brought about very gradually under small influences, such as we have noticed as acting73 through taxation74. What we need is to try to give effect to the gospel of giving to him that hath, and taking away from him that hath not. The most likely opening for such a line of advance would be giving partial state maintenance to the best stocks, so as to ensure large returns from them, and taxing down the worst stocks—exactly the opposite course to the present craze. Let us try to realise if there be a practical system for this advance.
We should need a Board of Health in each area of about 10,000 inhabitants, composed of three examining doctors. Every child on leaving school, or at about fifteen, should be examined, merely by a glance at the greater bulk of normal cases, but carefully in extreme cases. The finest 5 per cent. both mentally (shown by school-leaving certificates) and physically75 as well, should be premiated by assisted higher education of suitable type. The worst 10 per cent. should be remanded to a training school where physical and mental development would be scientifically carried out, and as much profit as possible made from their labour toward self-support. This would reclaim76 the hooligan class effectually before they run amuck77, and88 help on those who need care and assistance to get a good footing in life. No course could possibly be kinder for the weaklings. At the age of twenty a further examination of both the best and the worst classes should ensue. The best half of the most able should receive a certificate granting them practically free support for all children they may have after they have reached the age of twenty-five. The worst half of the most incapable, or 5 per cent. of all, should be required to report residence during their lives to the Board of Health of their district, and informed that if they had any children they must pay a heavy fine, or else go into servitude. This would practically mean the segregation78 of the lowest class of the unfits under compulsory79 work. It would be cheaper to the state to keep them thus at work, than to pay poor rates to maintain this submerged twentieth and their helpless families.
In all these proposals there would be no Socialistic constraint80 of the great majority, which is normal in mind and body. But such attention to the unfit would be merely adding a porch to the poorhouse, the hospital, and the asylum81, and there sorting over the material which can be possibly saved from a bad end. The nine-tenths of people who were ordinary would be thus left even more free for individual growth than they now are, when hampered82 by the inefficient63 residue83.
We might not exclude the thought of another favourite idea of some reformers which in a modified shape might be allowed to gradually take root. Since Spencer Wells familiarised the world with an operation for which he will always be remembered, hundreds89 of women have gladly improved their health by a safe treatment, which, if anything, threatened to become too fashionable. Every woman who was, as above, required to report her residence as being unfit, and being liable to heavy penalties on having children, should be offered the option of perfect freedom if she chose the operation. The marriage of such women, with men who were condemned84 as unfit, would entirely free both parties from reporting and inspection85 in future, and give the best prospect of happy lives to the weakest and less capable of the community, free from what would be only too truly "encumbrances86" to such people. This course might give a permanently87 safe line of improvement, without any consequent stigma88 or hardship in the world around; and so gentle a change—beneficial to the individual as well as the community—seems not outside of future possibilities. At least such a course would be the more practicable form of such a proposed change. Of course, no such legislation would be complete in its action, and evasions90 would often occur. But if it checked even one half of the growth of bad stock it would be an enormous gain.
We now turn to other lines of advance from the communal point of view. The old system of community, in which all the nations of northern Europe lived, was based on each man being his brother's keeper; every one was liable to fines if any relative committed a crime, in proportion to their closeness of relation. To this succeeded individual responsibility, both in property and in penalties. This raises the question whether it is possible to separate property and penalty in communism. At present the tendency90 is to a state communism, begun by heavy death duties and taxation (for a variety of purposes which the taxed do not use or require), amounting to a quarter of all property. If this system is extended, and property becomes more largely hypothecated to public purposes, then when a man is condemned in heavy damages or fines his neighbours will suffer by reduction of the rateable property. Will it not be thought more fair for his relatives to be responsible for the public loss? And if so, we indirectly91 revert92 to the payment by relatives of a share of all fines.
To anyone who has had experience of combined labour, it is obvious how two people working together do not perform twice as much as one alone. There is always a loss by one waiting on the action of another; and it appears as if the amount of work done only increased as the square root of the number of people working together. Hence the group-work of communistic taste is very wasteful. This is practically seen among the Slavs in Russia, where communal agriculture—which is extolled93 by its admirers—produces far less per acre on fine land, than is obtained by individual agriculture on poor land in England. Again it is notorious how the Irishman who goes to work apart among individualist people, then flourishes as he never does when held down by the communal claims socially enforced among his own countrymen. This is the root of the success of the Irish out of their own land. Thus we see how communal action is the more wasteful form of labour; and how it was a great advance for man when he made individual success entirely depend upon individual labour.
Another question is what form of government will91 most favour the strong breeds and the new strains of ability as they arise? Certainly any system which ties the actions of one person with those of others is detrimental94 to ability. The better man is held back by the co-operation with others, by their lower example, and by their direct disfavour. Any communistic tie is unfavourable to advance; and it was a great step in favour of new and improved variations when each individual stood entirely on his own resources, and was not bound by his inferior kin11. In every way, therefore, individualism was a line of advance for men in the past; and the principles which are involved promise that it will yet likewise be the main line of future advance. If we look practically at which class of government is associated with advance of ideas, of inventions, and new types of thought, let us put on one hand the more individualist countries, America, England, Germany, and perhaps France, and on the other hand the more communist countries, Switzerland, Norway, Ireland, Greece, Australia, and especially New Zealand. Can we question for a moment which type of country is most advancing the intellect and abilities of man?
But we must not forget that union is strength, the motto that Belgium strangely took on separating from Holland; and combined action has great advantages. In this view the beneficial combination is that to which all contribute without one being a hindrance to the other. How far can these benefits be gained without loss to the improved individual? The main principle is that all combinations must be entirely voluntary, and have no suspicion of coercion95 about them. Where even "peaceful persuasion96" comes in, ability92 is crushed, and the whole community is the loser by it. Coercive union of individuals is the unpardonable sin against human nature, because it kills the hopes of the future. The safe line of advance is combination by large clubs for every purpose, with healthy rivalry97 between similar institutions—benefit clubs, co-operative stores, co-operative works, holiday clubs, and insurance of all kinds. Every inducement should be held out to join in such combinations, giving them the assistance and security of official auditors98, as is provided for friendly societies at present Every line in which any class can profitably unite for economic action, on an entirely voluntary basis, and without any tie on the individual beyond his share in the enterprise, is a clear gain to society. In this way the taxation for these ends would fall on those who benefit by them, and not on those who do not want them. Thus the individual would be free to take, or leave alone, the benefits provided; and many purposes to which taxation is now applied99 would be far better effected by gigantic clubs of those classes who want such assistance. Taxation must be strictly100 limited to those purposes in which all persons must necessarily share, such as protection and justice.
Hence a future line of advance lies in a great development of purely101 voluntary co-operation in any one class, in order to obtain the advantages of combination. In one direction it is clear what immense savings102 might be thus effected. Co-operative purchase of supplies and cooking, with distribution of hot meals to subscribers, would save perhaps a third of the cost of living to the working classes. And if the prepaid weekly subscriptions103 might be deducted93 before wages were received, such a system would go far to solve the question of proper feeding of children. Again, the education of hand-workers in the subject of economics can be best furthered by the experience gained in co-operative works, and even on this ground alone every encouragement should be given to such combinations of workers.
Another line of advance now coming into practical view is the use of various nationalities, according to their abilities for different kinds of works in foreign countries. We have seen, in Europe, Italian miners taken to many lands for tunnelling and submarine work, we have Norwegians largely employed in our shipping104, and English engineers find many careers abroad. Of recent years the great mass of cheap skilled labour of China and Japan has been getting its due share of the world's work. The infamous105 manner in which the Chinese have been treated in America is apparently106 now nearly at an end; the Republic where all men are free and equal will be coerced107 into fairness by the reasonable refusal to take American goods as long as the Americans will not take Chinese labour. In British Columbia the Japanese are objected to because they are more industrious108, more economical, more sober and quiet than the white, who, as their inferior in these principal respects, cannot bear their competition. The Americans are likewise trying to prevent their industry, while at the same time wishing to make the Panama Canal with Chinese labour; in this they will probably be rebuffed, unless the whole national position is put on a fair basis. The objections to Chinese labour in South Africa have never been put94 on the real fact—tacitly felt, though unexpressed—that the white dreads109 the competition of an economical people. First they were said to be tortured in slavery, a lie which served its big political purpose until it was found that they would not leave; then the danger of public crime and burglary was put forward, until it was shown that there were fewer criminals in proportion than among other inhabitants; then a cry of immorality110 was raised, until the Colonial Secretary stated that the Kaffirs who would replace them had just the same habits. Now the Transvaal refuses to destroy its own welfare by the falseness of playing with any of these cries; but such hatred112 to free labour has all served the political ends which were intended by an unscrupulous party that revels113 in keeping a conscience. Meanwhile the Prussian Board of Agriculture desires to import Chinese agriculturists into Germany; and it will be strange if the great German coalfields in South Wales are not run by the cheapest labour that can be obtained. We have no laws to prevent Chinese working freely in England, and we cannot afford to wreck114 our great China trade by starting a gross injustice115 of exclusion116.
If objections are felt—by a people so immoral111 as ourselves—to the toleration of any habit of foreign residents, let it be legislated117 upon equally for all nationalities in England. In this way the Canadians expelled the rowdy negroes who had taken refuge with them in the days of slavery. A rigid118 and impartial119 punishment of rowdyism cleared out the undesirable120 negro, and left the inoffensive behind. The only possible course of safety is not by any laws directed against any one race; for when such95 laws break down in the growth of the future there will be a terrible economic—if not political—catastrophe. Rigid laws to check evils of all inhabitants of a country alike are sound and safe, and will prevent most of the objectionable results of immigration, Jewish, Italian, Chinese, or any other. With such laws a great advance can be made by the free use of that kind of labour which is most adapted to the work, whatever source it may come from. Such must inevitably122 be the course of the distant future; and those who play with holding what they please to call a "white man's land" will find that "mean whites" of hot countries are wholly inferior to other races which are fitted for such a position. Bret Harte has well stated "the conscious hate and fear with which inferiority always regards the possibility of even-handed justice, and which is the key-note to the vulgar clamour about servile and degraded races."
Another subject which has seemed to be a most promising line of advance is that of the reduction or abolition of warfare123. We must not limit our view in this to open and direct violence, there are other forms of warfare quite as effective, and causing as much, or more, misery124 in the total. The warfare of trade is always going on, each nation is pushing its neighbours as much as it can for its own benefit. Some gain benefit by closed markets and bleeding a monopoly, others benefit by open markets, and each fights for what it wants by trade methods backed with force. The free trader honestly believes that all this can and should be abolished by each country producing what it is best fitted for, and a tacit or96 legal understanding that there is to be no trade rivalry on the various lines thus assigned to different countries. Such would be the only system which could abolish trade warfare. Under such a system advance would be greatly checked, if not killed. Look at the history of quinine; only twenty years ago it was 10s. an ounce, and the growers (though competing among themselves) did not think they could improve the process or reduce the price. The chemist in Europe stepped into the market and smashed the old system by much cheaper artificial quinine. But the growers, sooner than be ruined, invented extraction by petroleum126, and brought down the price to 1s. 6d. an ounce. Now here were two acts of violent trade warfare between countries; the result being such an improvement that instead of one of the most life-saving medicines being a luxury, it can now be used six times more freely than before. Without trade war this would never have come about. Free trade implies free competition, and that is trade-warfare.
Another form of trade war is holding a country for the sake of a monopoly of trade, thus enabling a group of manufacturers—say of France—to tax all the inhabitants under their government, especially in colonies—as Algiers, Madagascar, Tahiti, &c. This is simply a form of tribute, like the taxation levied127 by Rome on various conquered countries; it holds back the taxed countries. If other countries wish to get a share of that trade they will have to fight, by trade or by violence, to conquer the right to join in it. And a trade war which shut, say, all English markets to France, until all French markets were open to97 England, would not violate any economic principle. It is meeting force by force, exclusion by exclusion; and no shudder128 at our using trade war ourselves will prevent for an instant the trade war which is used against us. Our principles will not weigh a feather in other nations' practice. But warfare is a temporary measure, and retaliation129 must only be temporary. The great danger would be in establishing a permanent system of taxation of foreign productions, which would be worked to the utmost by trades unions at home, in order to enable them to bleed the country to death by high prices. This terrible danger of ruin is the main reason against protective duties, though seldom, if ever, noticed in public discussion of the subject.
Another form of warfare is the relative burden of armaments. This may be called slow combustion130, in contrast to the open flame of war. Now if there is no joint131 limitation—as at present—the most long-sighted and powerful nation stands to win at this game; the result is the same as if actual war were in progress, but the terrors and destruction of war are avoided. But if there be a joint limitation of armament—as some hope may be established—it must be on such a basis that no one state is left in a condition of clear superiority to another, otherwise it would tie the inferior state to be in a permanently inferior condition. And the qualities which will win will be subterfuge132, evasion89, and bad faith; whichever state contrives133 to be better prepared than another behind the agreement will stand to win when the war does come. In the unlimited condition the qualities win which are those best for mankind in all other respects; in the limited98 condition the qualities will win which are worst for mankind otherwise. The real fact is that great armaments are like great states, a needful condition of the new speed of communication. When it took two or three months to move an army from central Europe to England, we had two or three months to prepare; when it takes only two or three days we must be always prepared. No one can put the clock back, and steam is the end of small armaments. Within a generation of quick transport being started, big armaments were found needful, and will never cease to be needful. Great permanent combinations of states are the only line of relief under the new conditions, which bind134 mankind for ever in the future.
Let us look now at direct war. What are the qualities which tell for success, looking to the wars of recent times with which we are familiar? In the brains of the army the main qualities have been (1) Foresight135; (2) Combining power; (3) Honesty; (4) Imagination; (5) Skill; and in the muscle of the army (6) Physique; (7) Industry; (8) Tenacity136. In short, success in war requires precisely the same qualities as success in peace. Even if the cause is bad, yet it is the best man all round that wins. In each case recently the winner has been the better power for future civilisation. War then may be defined as the concentration into a year of the same results which would take place by economic causes within perhaps a generation or a century. So far as violent changes are undesirable—as we have noticed before—so far war is undesirable. But on the purely humanitarian137 view it may be better to flee before one's99 enemies for three months than have three years' famine; it may be better to kill 100,000 in a brief campaign than starve a million during a whole generation by bad trade owing to slow economic changes. War strikes the imagination and impresses the thoughtless with its horror, but a starving peace may be a far more painful process.
It is difficult to see that any of the causes of trade war, armament war, or open war are at all likely to be less in the future than they have been in the past; and if the causes are the same we must expect like effects. Nor do we see that any result of these different kinds of war is injurious to that character of man which is requisite for his advance in better lines. Each of these forms of competition tends to give an advantage to the best qualified138 race, and to promote the most beneficial strains of character. On the general principle that slow evolution is preferable to violent changes we must look for advance by intensified139 trade war rather than by armaments, and by the strain of armament rather than by open war.
A direction in which great improvements of organisation140 may be attained141 would be in better adaptation of checks. So far as possible, checks should be abolished by establishing interests in the same direction between different parties. The profit-sharing movement is an excellent beginning of what needs to be fully8 and exactly carried out. The checks of inspection, which have been so greatly multiplied lately, are peculiarly liable to abuses; and a system of fewer and far superior inspectors142, much less inspection, and much heavier penalties to correspond, would in the long run prove the safer line. The great check100 by popular election is very wasteful, a general election costing the country over a million pounds in various ways. Precisely as fair a check would be gained by summoning one in a hundred of the electors by lot at the day of election; and the nursing of a constituency would be much diminished.
Lastly, let us look at the final type to which man will probably be led by natural survival. This enquiry is limited throughout to those qualities which are the product of external causes; and no attempt is made to estimate the more spiritual side of man or his higher mental development. For that we have not the same physical basis of research, and it would be a fruitless mixture to include such considerations—however important—in an enquiry which by its scope might be similarly applicable to lower organisms. We are therefore dealing here only with the physical basis of civilisation.
For the sake of safety from aggression143 and prevention of small quarrels, federations144 of great size must prevail; while those federations which allow for the greatest diversity between the states will prove more adaptable145 and vigorous. Similarly, states which allow of the greatest diversity of life to the individual will succeed best, by the promotion146 of the most vigorous strains. More systematic147 law will be needed between states. This may perhaps be on the line of all contracts being on the seller's law, and all marriage on the husband's law, regardless of change of residence; and all contracts being suable on their own law in any state.
The greatest empires have in the past allowed great diversity between states. Persia left each land to its101 own laws, and only required the control of a satrap, a small tribute, and unification of army and navy. Rome interfered148 very little with local law, and left the principal cities autonomous149 throughout the empire. Britain has carefully preserved local law where a system existed, as in India, the Cape150, and many varieties nearer home, even in England itself. The United States have kept local laws of states and local legislatures. Hence it is likely that groups of states with great variety of type will prevail, only unified151 by a common system of defence and compulsory taxation for that purpose. It is even conceivable that such a system might be established in England, if the Privy152 Council was supplemented by Colonial ex-ministers of long standing125, and was granted powers of assessment153 over all parliaments for the common defence.
The type of man which must prevail is that of the greatest industry and greatest individuality; each man belonging to many voluntary societies for various united benefits. Agriculture, the main industry of man, will be far more elaborate and economical; as much so as the present Chinese system, or even carried to further detail with machinery154. And the unlimited supply of atmospheric155 nitrates, now in sight, will also greatly increase production. Profit-sharing or the shareholding156 of all workers must gradually prevail in all industries. The growth of rapidity of thought and action, and the economy of organisation, will enable a living to be earned with perhaps half a day's labour, or less. The large balance of time, beyond that which will be needed for bare necessities, will be spent on a much greater102 development of natural resources and conveniences of life; each man will thus enjoy the result of an immense accumulated capital of improvements and benefits. In short, each one will be rich, either by the cheapness of articles or abundance of money, a merely relative question. The accumulated wealth of improvement will leave a smaller profit on labour, or in other words capital will command a very low interest. Therefore there will be less inducement to work for saving; and hence spare time will be more readily employed in the personal quest of knowledge, and enlargement of mental interests, in literature, in science, in history, and in the arts, or among the less capable in mere amusements. But the higher the social organisation and reward of ability, the more intense will be the weeding of the less capable, and the more highly sustained will be the general level of ability.
That fluctuation157 will occur is inevitable158; but it will be gradually understood that the utmost freedom of labour and communication is the only way to allow changes to be gradual, and so to avert159 the great and disgraceful catastrophes160 of forcible migration121 of hordes161. Hence there will tend to be an incessant flow of labour from country to country, assisted by international labour bureaus: thus the wage of any given ability will be equalised over the world, and hence prices of all produce will equalise also. The whole of this action will further enforce the power of ability, and tend to end or mend the less capable.
We must, then, look for a world with approximately equal civilisation and prices in all lands; but with each people developed in their own lines of ability, in103–104 accord with climate and conditions, to such a point that no other people can compete with them in their own conditions. The equatorial races tending to have less initiative and vigour than those of colder climates, the equatorial lands will therefore tend to be each attached to a temperate162 land which will supply more energy to their development; while a steady drift of population from colder to hotter lands will take place, as for a generation or two they will retain a greater vigour. Thus the tropics will be the seat of the keenest competition and extinction163 of races; while the borders of the arctic regions will always afford most room for human increase.
So far as peoples turn their backs on the inevitable goal, they will have to painfully retrace164 their course, or else disappear by extinction; while the peoples who move toward the lines of success will be the fathers of the future. Will they be found in East or West?
The End
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1
sketched
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| v.草拟（sketch的过去式与过去分词形式） | |
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communal
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| adj.公有的，公共的，公社的，公社制的 | |
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animating
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| v.使有生气( animate的现在分词 )；驱动；使栩栩如生地动作；赋予…以生命 | |
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abolition
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| n.废除，取消 | |
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restriction
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| n.限制，约束 | |
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opposition
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| n.反对，敌对 | |
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stimuli
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| n.刺激（物） | |
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fully
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| adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地 | |
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precisely
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| adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地 | |
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renewal
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| adj.(契约)延期，续订，更新，复活，重来 | |
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kin
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| n.家族，亲属，血缘关系；adj.亲属关系的，同类的 | |
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prospect
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| n.前景，前途；景色，视野 | |
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epidemic
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| n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的 | |
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mere
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| adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过 | |
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hindrance
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| n.妨碍，障碍 | |
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civilisation
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| n.文明，文化，开化，教化 | |
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cultivation
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| n.耕作，培养，栽培（法），养成 | |
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vigour
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| （=vigor）n.智力，体力，精力 | |
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19
promising
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| adj.有希望的，有前途的 | |
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varied
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| adj.多样的，多变化的 | |
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solely
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| adv.仅仅，唯一地 | |
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enjoyment
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| n.乐趣；享有；享用 | |
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essentially
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| adv.本质上，实质上，基本上 | |
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savage
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| adj.野蛮的；凶恶的，残暴的；n.未开化的人 | |
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steadily
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| adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地 | |
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requisite
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| adj.需要的，必不可少的；n.必需品 | |
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eradicate
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| v.根除，消灭，杜绝 | |
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incapable
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| adj.无能力的，不能做某事的 | |
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relaxation
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| n.松弛，放松；休息；消遣；娱乐 | |
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disastrous
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| adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的 | |
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athletics
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| n.运动，体育，田径运动 | |
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32
defective
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| adj.有毛病的，有问题的，有瑕疵的 | |
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33
robust
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| adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的 | |
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34
plethoric
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| adj.过多的，多血症的 | |
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brawn
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| n.体力 | |
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unlimited
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| adj.无限的，不受控制的，无条件的 | |
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robustness
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| 坚固性，健壮性；鲁棒性 | |
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38
draught
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| n.拉，牵引，拖；一网（饮，吸，阵)；顿服药量，通风；v.起草，设计 | |
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39
racing
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| n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的 | |
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40
rivalries
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| n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 ) | |
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41
intentionally
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| ad.故意地，有意地 | |
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42
oust
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| vt.剥夺，取代，驱逐 | |
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43
reconstruction
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| n.重建，再现，复原 | |
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44
entirely
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| ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地 | |
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45
futile
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| adj.无效的，无用的，无希望的 | |
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46
judgment
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| n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见 | |
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47
habitually
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| ad.习惯地，通常地 | |
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48
repudiated
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| v.（正式地）否认( repudiate的过去式和过去分词 )；拒绝接受；拒绝与…往来；拒不履行（法律义务） | |
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49
judiciously
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| adv.明断地，明智而审慎地 | |
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50
pivot
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| v.在枢轴上转动；装枢轴，枢轴；adj.枢轴的 | |
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51
liberates
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| 解放，释放( liberate的第三人称单数 ) | |
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52
partnership
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| n.合作关系，伙伴关系 | |
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53
allusions
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| 暗指，间接提到( allusion的名词复数 ) | |
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54
incessant
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| adj.不停的，连续的 | |
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55
maternity
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| n.母性，母道，妇产科病房；adj.孕妇的，母性的 | |
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56
filth
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| n.肮脏，污物，污秽；淫猥 | |
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57
wasteful
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| adj.（造成）浪费的，挥霍的 | |
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58
penal
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| adj.刑罚的；刑法上的 | |
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59
enactments
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| n.演出( enactment的名词复数 )；展现；规定；通过 | |
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60
sentimental
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| adj.多愁善感的，感伤的 | |
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61
scrap
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| n.碎片；废料；v.废弃，报废 | |
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62
scrapping
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| 刮，切除坯体余泥 | |
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63
inefficient
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| adj.效率低的，无效的 | |
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64
lengthening
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| （时间或空间）延长，伸长( lengthen的现在分词 )； 加长 | |
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65
dealing
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| n.经商方法，待人态度 | |
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66
Christian
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| adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒 | |
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67
exterminate
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| v.扑灭，消灭，根绝 | |
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68
follies
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| 罪恶，时事讽刺剧； 愚蠢，蠢笨，愚蠢的行为、思想或做法( folly的名词复数 ) | |
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69
vices
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| 缺陷( vice的名词复数 )； 恶习； 不道德行为； 台钳 | |
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70
wastrels
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| n.无用的人，废物( wastrel的名词复数 )；浪子 | |
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71
parental
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| adj.父母的；父的；母的 | |
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72
adoption
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| n.采用，采纳，通过；收养 | |
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73
acting
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| n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的 | |
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74
taxation
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| n.征税，税收，税金 | |
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75
physically
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| adj.物质上，体格上，身体上，按自然规律 | |
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76
reclaim
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| v.要求归还，收回；开垦 | |
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77
amuck
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| ad.狂乱地 | |
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78
segregation
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| n.隔离，种族隔离 | |
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79
compulsory
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| n.强制的，必修的；规定的，义务的 | |
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80
constraint
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| n.(on)约束，限制；限制(或约束)性的事物 | |
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81
asylum
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| n.避难所，庇护所，避难 | |
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82
hampered
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| 妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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83
residue
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| n.残余，剩余，残渣 | |
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84
condemned
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| adj. 被责难的, 被宣告有罪的 动词condemn的过去式和过去分词 | |
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85
inspection
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| n.检查，审查，检阅 | |
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86
encumbrances
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| n.负担( encumbrance的名词复数 )；累赘；妨碍；阻碍 | |
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permanently
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| adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地 | |
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stigma
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| n.耻辱，污名；(花的)柱头 | |
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evasion
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| n.逃避，偷漏(税) | |
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evasions
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| 逃避( evasion的名词复数 )； 回避； 遁辞； 借口 | |
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91
indirectly
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| adv.间接地，不直接了当地 | |
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92
revert
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| v.恢复，复归，回到 | |
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93
extolled
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| v.赞颂，赞扬，赞美( extol的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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94
detrimental
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| adj.损害的，造成伤害的 | |
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95
coercion
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| n.强制，高压统治 | |
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96
persuasion
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| n.劝说；说服；持有某种信仰的宗派 | |
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rivalry
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| n.竞争，竞赛，对抗 | |
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auditors
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| n.审计员，稽核员( auditor的名词复数 )；（大学课程的）旁听生 | |
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99
applied
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| adj.应用的；v.应用，适用 | |
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100
strictly
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| adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地 | |
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101
purely
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| adv.纯粹地，完全地 | |
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savings
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| n.存款，储蓄 | |
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103
subscriptions
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| n.（报刊等的）订阅费( subscription的名词复数 )；捐款；（俱乐部的）会员费；捐助 | |
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shipping
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| n.船运（发货，运输，乘船） | |
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infamous
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| adj.声名狼藉的，臭名昭著的，邪恶的 | |
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apparently
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| adv.显然地；表面上，似乎 | |
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107
coerced
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| v.迫使做( coerce的过去式和过去分词 )；强迫；（以武力、惩罚、威胁等手段）控制；支配 | |
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108
industrious
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| adj.勤劳的，刻苦的，奋发的 | |
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109
dreads
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| n.恐惧，畏惧( dread的名词复数 )；令人恐惧的事物v.害怕，恐惧，担心( dread的第三人称单数 ) | |
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110
immorality
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| n. 不道德, 无道义 | |
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111
immoral
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| adj.不道德的，淫荡的，荒淫的，有伤风化的 | |
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112
hatred
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| n.憎恶，憎恨，仇恨 | |
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113
revels
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| n.作乐( revel的名词复数 )；狂欢；着迷；陶醉v.作乐( revel的第三人称单数 )；狂欢；着迷；陶醉 | |
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114
wreck
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| n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难 | |
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115
injustice
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| n.非正义，不公正，不公平，侵犯（别人的）权利 | |
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116
exclusion
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| n.拒绝，排除，排斥，远足，远途旅行 | |
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117
legislated
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| v.立法，制定法律( legislate的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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118
rigid
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| adj.严格的，死板的；刚硬的，僵硬的 | |
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119
impartial
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| adj.(in,to)公正的，无偏见的 | |
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120
undesirable
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| adj.不受欢迎的，不良的，不合意的，讨厌的；n.不受欢迎的人，不良分子 | |
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121
migration
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| n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙 | |
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inevitably
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| adv.不可避免地；必然发生地 | |
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123
warfare
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| n.战争(状态)；斗争；冲突 | |
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misery
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| n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦 | |
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standing
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| n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的 | |
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petroleum
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| n.原油，石油 | |
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levied
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| 征（兵）( levy的过去式和过去分词 )； 索取； 发动（战争）； 征税 | |
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128
shudder
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| v.战粟，震动，剧烈地摇晃；n.战粟，抖动 | |
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retaliation
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| n.报复，反击 | |
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combustion
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| n.燃烧；氧化；骚动 | |
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131
joint
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| adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合 | |
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132
subterfuge
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| n.诡计；藉口 | |
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contrives
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| （不顾困难地）促成某事( contrive的第三人称单数 )； 巧妙地策划，精巧地制造（如机器）； 设法做到 | |
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134
bind
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| vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬 | |
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135
foresight
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| n.先见之明，深谋远虑 | |
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136
tenacity
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| n.坚韧 | |
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137
humanitarian
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| n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者 | |
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qualified
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| adj.合格的，有资格的，胜任的，有限制的 | |
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intensified
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| v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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organisation
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| n.组织，安排，团体，有机休 | |
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attained
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| （通常经过努力）实现( attain的过去式和过去分词 )； 达到； 获得； 达到（某年龄、水平、状况） | |
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142
inspectors
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| n.检查员( inspector的名词复数 )；（英国公共汽车或火车上的）查票员；（警察）巡官；检阅官 | |
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aggression
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| n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害 | |
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federations
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| n.联邦( federation的名词复数 )；同盟；联盟；联合会 | |
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adaptable
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| adj.能适应的，适应性强的，可改编的 | |
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promotion
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| n.提升，晋级；促销，宣传 | |
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systematic
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| adj.有系统的，有计划的，有方法的 | |
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interfered
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| v.干预( interfere的过去式和过去分词 )；调停；妨碍；干涉 | |
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autonomous
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| adj.自治的；独立的 | |
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150
cape
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| n.海角，岬；披肩，短披风 | |
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151
unified
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| (unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的 | |
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privy
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| adj.私用的；隐密的 | |
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153
assessment
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| n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额 | |
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machinery
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| n.(总称)机械，机器；机构 | |
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atmospheric
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| adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的 | |
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shareholding
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| n.股权 | |
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157
fluctuation
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| n.(物价的)波动，涨落；周期性变动；脉动 | |
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inevitable
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| adj.不可避免的，必然发生的 | |
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159
avert
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| v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等) | |
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catastrophes
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| n.灾祸( catastrophe的名词复数 )；灾难；不幸事件；困难 | |
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hordes
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| n.移动着的一大群( horde的名词复数 )；部落 | |
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162
temperate
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| adj.温和的，温带的，自我克制的，不过分的 | |
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163
extinction
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| n.熄灭，消亡，消灭，灭绝，绝种 | |
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retrace
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| v.折回；追溯，探源 | |
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