"The system will still help us out," said he, evasively, to my question whether Russia would have to face a financial crisis after the war.
"What system?" said I.
The bank director adjusted his eye-glasses and, with round eyes, gazed at me for a while. Then, with that burst of candor4 which so often surprises us in the Russians, he began:
"We are not children, after all, and neither you nor I is dancing to the government music to which others are keeping time. We may, therefore, talk it over calmly. Well, we have a great drum, with which there can be no marching out of line. It drums. We have never as yet stopped our payments, like France, Austria, or Turkey. We are,[Pg 124] therefore, punctual payers, hence we shall again secure money."
"Is this a serious argument?" I asked.
"God forbid!" was the answer. "We have paid to secure future credit. But it seems that this policy of honest debtor5 is wiser than the occasional discontinuance of payment, which allows some advance but involves the loss of credit. We can always repeat to the public that wishes to buy our bonds, 'Russia is honest; Russia pays; you need have no fear here of shrinkage.' And so the public buys."
"But the banker must know that the liberality is not real," I rejoined.
"And if he does know it? Is it the banker's business to initiate6 the public into the secret sciences? Do not forget that no government pays to the world such commissions for loans as we do. Prussia pays one-half per cent., Austria one and a half per cent., we pay three per cent.; and, confidentially7, it does not end with that, but the issuing banks also get their six per cent., especially when they appear reluctant at first. For what reason should a commission of three to six per cent. be paid where the business is as bad as it is? It was Offenheim who said, 'You don't build railroads by moral maxims8.' And high finance says that dividends9 and bonuses are not paid with moral maxims."
"According to my perhaps unbusiness-like opinion, this is not much better than stealing."
[Pg 125]
"Very unbusiness-like, indeed, my friend. The banking10 world needs no Nietzsche to stand on the other side of good and evil. Ethics11, like religion, is only for the masses. Just calculate what a commission of three to six per cent. means on a loan of five hundred to a thousand million rubles that we shall surely need in this war. Let us say only three per cent., officially. That means thirty millions—more than sixty million marks. Do you then think that the banks belong to the Salvation12 Army, to imagine that they should renounce13 such a transaction?"
"Slowly, slowly. You said at first that Russia will need in this war about a milliard rubles. That would be contrary to what I have heard from other very reliable sources—namely, that the cash reserve is supposedly equal to about a milliard rubles."
"I will bet you that in three months we shall not have left a single kopek of this milliard, assuming that it exists. In agreement with military experts, who, between ourselves, are not at all optimistic, I estimate the duration of this war at twelve to eighteen months at least. With our management, every month costs us at least a hundred million rubles. Thus you see that a milliard will not be sufficient."
"Well, let us say that the banks cannot reject the business, still they must, in the first place, dispose of the securities, which will not be so easy, since the French are thoroughly14 satiated with the bonds,[Pg 126] and, as the fall in the rate of exchange has recently shown, confidence in these bonds is no longer any too great."
"They may drop still further," said the banker, smiling. "The fall in the rate of exchange would have been still worse had not our banks received a strict order not to turn over the deposited bonds to their owners during these days of convulsion."
"How? I do not understand this. The issue of the deposited securities to their owners is delayed?"
"Yes, my friend, that is being done. You again do me the honor to forget in my office that we are in Russia. Even worse things are done here. At the order of the minister of finance, the owners of the bonds who wish to withdraw their deposits are given only a few hundreds or thousands of rubles for the most pressing needs, but they do not get their bonds. This is in order to prevent, by all means, the bonds being thrown on the market and thus increasing the panic."
"But that can be done only here. You have no such power abroad."
"Well, the first alarm did cost a respectable sum. Then the foreign bondholders came to the rescue and intervened for their own interest. The price of the bonds was maintained, especially in Germany."
"Why particularly in Germany?"
"Because it fluctuates less in France. There it is in the hands of small investors16 who do not run to the treasury18 at the first opportunity. It is not as[Pg 127] strongly intrenched in Germany, and must be supported there."
"Very well, then, you support my reasoning, and you say that the bond values are maintained artificially alone. How can you say, then, that they may be augmented19 at will by new issues?"
"I say that, because the buyers are an amorphous20 mass that crystallizes just as little as a combination of producers is met by a combination of consumers. The masses may be frightened for a while, but in the long run they are irresistibly21 led to spoliation by the great combinations of capital, and the act of creating current opinion is well known in high financial circles."
"You forget the independent press."
The banker made a very peculiar22 grimace23. Then he said: "That is not nice of you. I am speaking to you as if to a member of the profession—like one augur25 to another. And when we come to speak of your own profession, you turn out to be a simpleton. How can you speak of an independent press, when under the pressure of the high finance of the Russian and German governments?"
"You will pardon me. I honor your uprightness equally with that of the greatest of my profession. But I must stop at that. Newspapers are still guided by morality. And I am willing to bet anything that among our German papers only a vanishing fraction is susceptible26 to the arguments of Witte and his associates."
[Pg 128]
"And what becomes, then, of the millions that our ministry27 of finance is spending to secure good will in the papers towards our finances?"
"I do not want to suspect any one; but the German papers that I know well are incorruptible."
"Well, let us say that the radical28 or socialistic press is inaccessible29, and cannot be bought either by our ministry of finance or by the German bank combinations. There still remains30 the influence of the German government, that has its reasons for not allowing the weakening of Russia to too great an extent. For this is still the keystone of the conservative system in Europe, and this influence suffices to keep the unfriendly critics of our financial conditions from all the leading German papers. That is not even an official favor. I consider it quite logical for serious papers not to play mean tricks on their foreign office. But as to the other, the extremely radical writings, they have no significance for the financial world; and you will not doubt, at this day, that Germany is doing her best to keep us in good humor."
"Yes, I see with shame and resentment31 how the German government has been transformed into something akin24 to a Russian police ally, with the blessing32 of Count Bülow."
"Who surely knows what he is doing."
"Perhaps I myself do not believe that Germany has reason to seek Russian security, even though there be certain limits even for friendly services;[Pg 129] which limits have long been passed, to the detriment33 of the dignity of the German empire."
"I am also willing to believe all that you have told me about the influence of the high finance, the Russian noble, and German diplomacy34. Yet I cannot conceive how the mass of investors—and after all it is they who are to be considered—will permanently35 pay a much higher price for securities than corresponds to their intrinsic value, as is the case with the Russian securities, according to the information given me by Russian statesmen."
"Permanently? Some day it will stop. But when? Even the autocracy36 or the social structure will not maintain itself permanently. But meanwhile there is no power on earth to prevent the great banking institutions from earning thirty million rubles or more, when there is a chance. There will be a great bargaining, especially since the French government will exert itself strenuously37 to prevent future issue of Russian bonds; for every new issue depresses the value of former issues, and in these a great portion of the French national wealth is invested. In the end, however, German influence will prevail. Germany will advance us the new funds, because Germany wishes to render us a service; for Germany feels itself from day to day more and more isolated38 in Europe, and we are still not to be despised, either as friends or enemies, in spite of Port Arthur. Hence the German investor17 must help out; and, after all, he is not making a bad [Pg 130]transaction when he buys a four-per-cent. bond at let us say ninety."
"How so?"
"Well, the bank interest is now three per cent. When four rubles are paid on an investment of ninety rubles having a par15 value of one hundred rubles, then the valuation of Russian government securities is not quite seventy. And that may continue for a long time."
"Do you consider that the real, intrinsic value?"
"The stock exchange knows no intrinsic value. It only knows tendencies. One hundred rubles' worth of Russian government securities can always be disposed of at seventy, if all the strings39 do not break."
"You are evading40 me. I asked for your personal opinion on the intrinsic value of the Russian bonds."
"I will give you an answer. As long as our Russian peasant is able to starve and to sell his grain, as long as there are gendarmes41 to aid the tax-collector, and people who are willing to make further loans to us, so long is the payment of coupons42 assured. Beyond that the foreign bondholder has no right to inquire."
"Please tell me whether in your opinion there is a hidden deficit43 in the Russian budget, or whether there is none."
"I am telling you that as long as there are people who are willing to make further loans to us we shall pay the interest. Were our budget a real one, we[Pg 131] should not need to contract new debts in order to pay the interest on the old ones."
"That is what I wanted to know. And do you consider Russia a really insolvent44 country, that cannot really pay its debts, and cannot bear the burdens of modern national life?"
"On the contrary, Russia is intrinsically so rich a land in uncovered treasures that it only needs another and a just régime to pay its debts and to assume still further burdens."
"And this other régime?"
The banker pointed45 to the east. "Our future is being decided46 there. If it goes hard with us there, it may become better here more quickly than is suspected."
"Hence, worse for the bankers," said I, jokingly.
"People accustom47 themselves to honesty when there is no other way," answered the banker, also jokingly. "And when universal honesty comes into vogue48, it will no longer be a shame to be honest."
With this I parted from the banker, whose pleasing cynicism always amused me, the more so since I recognized in him the essence of sterling49, honorable views. Later interviews with other members of the financial world showed me that my first informant conveyed the generally accepted opinion. Isolated Germany will, for political reasons, and as a favor to the Russian régime, support Russian credit; the great German banks will not renounce[Pg 132] the splendid loan-issuing business; and the German investor will permit the imposition upon him of the Russian bonds. "Sheep must be shorn," coolly said one of the brokers50 to me, when I expressed a doubt that the German imperial government would pay for its political business with the hard-earned pennies of its investors. Your Bismarck did not hesitate for a moment to throw Russian values into the street, and to destroy thereby51 milliards of German property, when it suited his political convenience. Your present government will not be at all embarrassed in sacrificing again milliards of German property to place us under obligation. And, finally, no one is compelled to it. Whoever is not able to figure sufficiently52 to see how Wishnegradski prepared the balances to deceive the eye had better keep his money in his stocking and not buy securities. If he does buy them, let him bleed. Another explained, however: "The Germans will buy our bonds. When no other bait is attractive there is still one left to us. When the landowner sells his crops, and is thinking of investing his proceeds, the banker will say to him, 'How about a little of the Russian securities?' 'But those are supposed to be insecure,' answers the good fellow. 'The idea! This is only a Jewish trick. Probably on account of Kishinef.' And the good fellow will hand over his shekels, for he cannot be fooled about Kishinef."
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1
naval
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| adj.海军的，军舰的，船的 | |
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catastrophe
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| n.大灾难，大祸 | |
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astonishment
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| n.惊奇，惊异 | |
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candor
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| n.坦白，率真 | |
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debtor
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| n.借方，债务人 | |
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initiate
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| vt.开始，创始，发动；启蒙，使入门；引入 | |
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confidentially
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| ad.秘密地，悄悄地 | |
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maxims
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| n.格言，座右铭( maxim的名词复数 ) | |
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dividends
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| 红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金 | |
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banking
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| n.银行业，银行学，金融业 | |
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ethics
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| n.伦理学；伦理观，道德标准 | |
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salvation
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| n.（尤指基督）救世，超度，拯救，解困 | |
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renounce
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| v.放弃；拒绝承认，宣布与…断绝关系 | |
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thoroughly
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| adv.完全地，彻底地，十足地 | |
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par
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| n.标准，票面价值，平均数量；adj.票面的，平常的，标准的 | |
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investors
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| n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 ) | |
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investor
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| n.投资者，投资人 | |
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treasury
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| n.宝库；国库，金库；文库 | |
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Augmented
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| adj.增音的 动词augment的过去式和过去分词形式 | |
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amorphous
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| adj.无定形的 | |
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irresistibly
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| adv.无法抵抗地，不能自持地；极为诱惑人地 | |
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peculiar
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| adj.古怪的，异常的；特殊的，特有的 | |
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grimace
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| v.做鬼脸，面部歪扭 | |
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akin
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| adj.同族的，类似的 | |
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augur
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| n.占卦师；v.占卦 | |
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susceptible
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| adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的 | |
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ministry
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| n.(政府的)部；牧师 | |
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radical
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| n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的 | |
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inaccessible
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| adj.达不到的，难接近的 | |
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remains
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| n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹 | |
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resentment
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| n.怨愤，忿恨 | |
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blessing
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| n.祈神赐福；祷告；祝福，祝愿 | |
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detriment
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| n.损害；损害物，造成损害的根源 | |
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diplomacy
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| n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕 | |
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permanently
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| adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地 | |
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autocracy
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| n.独裁政治，独裁政府 | |
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strenuously
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| adv.奋发地，费力地 | |
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isolated
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| adj.与世隔绝的 | |
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strings
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| n.弦 | |
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evading
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| 逃避( evade的现在分词 )； 避开； 回避； 想不出 | |
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gendarmes
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| n.宪兵，警官( gendarme的名词复数 ) | |
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coupons
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| n.礼券( coupon的名词复数 )；优惠券；订货单；参赛表 | |
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deficit
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| n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差 | |
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insolvent
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| adj.破产的，无偿还能力的 | |
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pointed
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| adj.尖的，直截了当的 | |
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decided
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| adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的 | |
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accustom
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| vt.使适应，使习惯 | |
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Vogue
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| n.时髦，时尚；adj.流行的 | |
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sterling
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| adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑) | |
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brokers
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| n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排… | |
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thereby
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| adv.因此，从而 | |
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sufficiently
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| adv.足够地，充分地 | |
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