Shepherds of people, had need know the calendars of tempests in state; which are commonly greatest, when things grow to equality; as natural tempests are greatest about the Equinoctia. And as there are certain hollow blasts of wind, and secret swellings of seas before a tempest, so are there in states:
— Ille etiam caecos instare tumultus
Saepe monet, fraudesque et operta tunescere bella.
Libels and licentious1 discourses2 against the state, when they are frequent and open; and in like sort, false news often running up and down, to the disadvantage of the state, and hastily embraced; are amongst the signs of troubles. Virgil, giving the pedigree of Fame, saith, she was sister to the Giants:
Illam Terra parens, ira irritata deorum,
Extremam (ut perhibent) Coeo Enceladoque sororem
Progenuit.–
As if fames were the relics3 of seditions past; but they are no less, indeed, the preludes5 of seditions to come. Howsoever he noteth it right, that seditious tumults6, and seditious fames, differ no more but as brother and sister, masculine and feminine; especially if it come to that, that the best actions of a state, and the most plausible7, and which ought to give greatest contentment, are taken in ill sense, and traduced8: for that shows the envy great, as Tacitus saith; conflata magna invidia, seu bene seu male gesta premunt. Neither doth it follow, that because these fames are a sign of troubles, that the suppressing of them with too much severity, should be a remedy of troubles. For the despising of them, many times checks them best; and the going about to stop them, doth but make a wonder long-lived. Also that kind of obedience9, which Tacitus speaketh of, is to be held suspected: Erant in officio, sed tamen qui mallent mandata imperantium interpretari quam exequi disputing, excusing, cavilling10 upon mandates11 and directions, is a kind of shaking off the yoke12, and assay13 of disobedience; especially if in those disputings, they which are for the direction, speak fearfully and tenderly, and those that are against it, audaciously.
Also, as Machiavel noteth well, when princes, that ought to be common parents, make themselves as a party, and lean to a side, it is as a boat, that is overthrown14 by uneven15 weight on the one side; as was well seen, in the time of Henry the Third of France; for first, himself entered league for the extirpation16 of the Protestants; and presently after, the same league was turned upon himself. For when the authority of princes, is made but an accessory to a cause, and that there be other bands, that tie faster than the band of sovereignty, kings begin to be put almost out of possession.
Also, when discords17, and quarrels, and factions19 are carried openly and audaciously, it is a sign the reverence21 of government is lost. For the motions of the greatest persons in a government, ought to be as the motions of the planets under primum mobile; according to the old opinion: which is, that every of them, is carried swiftly by the highest motion, and softly in their own motion. And therefore, when great ones in their own particular motion, move violently, and, as Tacitus expresseth it well, liberius quam ut imperantium meminissent; it is a sign the orbs22 are out of frame. For reverence is that? wherewith princes are girt from God; who threateneth the dissolving thereof; Solvam cingula regum.
So when any of the four pillars of government, are mainly shaken, or weakened (which are religion, justice, counsel, and treasure), men had need to pray for fair weather. But let us pass from this part of predictions (concerning which, nevertheless, more light may be taken from that which followeth); and let us speak first, of the materials of seditions; then of the motives23 of them; and thirdly of the remedies.
Concerning the materials of seditions. It is a thing well to be considered; for the surest way to prevent seditions (if the times do bear it) is to take away the matter of them. For if there be fuel prepared, it is hard to tell, whence the spark shall come, that shall set it on fire. The matter of seditions is of two kinds: much poverty, and much discontentment. It is certain, so many overthrown estates, so many votes for troubles. Lucan noteth well the state of Rome before the Civil War,
Hinc usura vorax, rapidumque in tempore foenus,
Hinc concussa fides, et multis utile bellum.
This same multis utile bellum, is an assured and infallible sign, of a state disposed to seditions and troubles. And if this poverty and broken estate in the better sort, be joined with a want and necessity in the mean people, the danger is imminent24 and great. For the rebellions of the belly25 are the worst. As for discontentments, they are, in the politic26 body, like to humors in the natural, which are apt to gather a preternatural heat, and to inflame27. And let no prince measure the danger of them by this, whether they be just or unjust: for that were to imagine people, to be too reasonable; who do often spurn28 at their own good: nor yet by this, whether the griefs whereupon they rise, be in fact great or small: for they are the most dangerous discontentments, where the fear is greater than the feeling. Dolendi modus, timendi non item. Besides, in great oppressions, the same things that provoke the patience, do withal mate the courage; but in fears it is not so. Neither let any prince, or state, be secure concerning discontentments, because they have been often, or have been long, and yet no peril29 hath ensued: for as it is true, that every vapor30 or fume31 doth not turn into a storm; so it is nevertheless true, that storms, though they blow over divers32 times, yet may fall at last; and, as the Spanish proverb noteth well, The cord breaketh at the last by the weakest pull.
The causes and motives of seditions are, innovation in religion; taxes; alteration33 of laws and customs; breaking of privileges; general oppression; advancement34 of unworthy persons; strangers; dearths; disbanded soldiers; factions grown desperate; and what soever, in offending people, joineth and knitteth them in a common cause.
For the remedies; there may be some general preservatives35, whereof we will speak: as for the just cure, it must answer to the particular disease; and so be left to counsel, rather than rule.
The first remedy or prevention is to remove, by all means possible, that material cause of sedition4 whereof we spake; which is, want and poverty in the estate. To which purpose serveth the opening, and well-balancing of trade; the cherishing of manufactures; the banishing36 of idleness; the repressing of waste, and excess, by sumptuary laws; the improvement and husbanding of the soil; the regulating of prices of things vendible37; the moderating of taxes and tributes; and the like. Generally, it is to be foreseen that the population of a kingdom (especially if it be not mown down by wars) do not exceed the stock of the kingdom, which should maintain them. Neither is the population to be reckoned only by number; for a smaller number, that spend more and earn less, do wear out an estate sooner, than a greater number that live lower, and gather more. Therefore the multiplying of nobility, and other degrees of quality, in an over proportion to the common people, doth speedily bring a state to necessity; and so doth likewise an overgrown clergy38; for they bring nothing to the stock; and in like manner, when more are bred scholars, than preferments can take off.
It is likewise to be remembered, that forasmuch as the increase of any estate must be upon the foreigner (for whatsoever39 is somewhere gotten, is somewhere lost), there be but three things, which one nation selleth unto another; the commodity as nature yieldeth it; the manufacture; and the vecture, or carriage. So that if these three wheels go, wealth will flow as in a spring tide. And it cometh many times to pass, that materiam superabit opus; that the work and carriage is more worth than the material, and enricheth a state more; as is notably40 seen in the Low–Countrymen, who have the best mines above ground, in the world.
Above all things, good policy is to be used, that the treasure and moneys, in a state, be not gathered into few hands. For otherwise a state may have a great stock, and yet starve. And money is like muck, not good except it be spread. This is done, chiefly by suppressing, or at least keeping a strait hand, upon the devouring41 trades of usury42, ingrossing great pasturages, and the like.
For removing discontentments, or at least the danger of them; there is in every state (as we know) two portions of subjects; the noblesse and the commonalty. When one of these is discontent, the danger is not great; for common people are of slow motion, if they be not excited by the greater sort; and the greater sort are of small strength, except the multitude be apt, and ready to move of themselves. Then is the danger, when the greater sort, do but wait for the troubling of the waters amongst the meaner, that then they may declare themselves. The poets feign43, that the rest of the gods would have bound Jupiter; which he hearing of, by the counsel of Pallas, sent for Briareus, with his hundred hands, to come in to his aid. An emblem44, no doubt, to show how safe it is for monarchs45, to make sure of the good will of common people. To give moderate liberty for griefs and discontentments to evaporate (so it be without too great insolency or bravery), is a safe way. For he that turneth the humors back, and maketh the wound bleed inwards, endangereth malign46 ulcers47, and pernicious imposthumations.
The part of Epimetheus mought well become Prometheus, in the case of discontentments: for there is not a better provision against them. Epimetheus, when griefs and evils flew abroad, at last shut the lid, and kept hope in the bottom of the vessel48. Certainly, the politic and artificial nourishing, and entertaining of hopes, and carrying men from hopes to hopes, is one of the best antidotes49 against the poison of discontentments. And it is a certain sign of a wise government and proceeding50, when it can hold men’s hearts by hopes, when it cannot by satisfaction; and when it can handle things, in such manner, as no evil shall appear so peremptory51, but that it hath some outlet52 of hope; which is the less hard to do, because both particular persons and factions, are apt enough to flatter themselves, or at least to brave that, which they believe not.
Also the foresight53 and prevention, that there be no likely or fit head, whereunto discontented persons may resort, and under whom they may join, is a known, but an excellent point of caution. I understand a fit head, to be one that hath greatness and reputation; that hath confidence with the discontented party, and upon whom they turn their eyes; and that is thought discontented, in his own particular: which kind of persons, are either to be won, and reconciled to the state, and that in a fast and true manner; or to be fronted with some other, of the same party, that may oppose them, and so divide the reputation. Generally, the dividing and breaking, of all factions and combinations that are adverse54 to the state, and setting them at distance, or at least distrust, amongst themselves, is not one of the worst remedies. For it is a desperate case, if those that hold with the proceeding of the state, be full of discord18 and faction20, and those that are against it, be entire and united.
I have noted55, that some witty56 and sharp speeches, which have fallen from princes, have given fire to seditions. Caesar did himself infinite hurt in that speech, Sylla nescivit literas, non potuit dictare; for it did utterly57 cut off that hope, which men had entertained, that he would at one time or other give over his dictatorship. Galba undid58 himself by that speech, legi a se militem, non emi; for it put the soldiers out of hope of the donative. Probus likewise, by that speech, Si vixero, non opus erit amplius Romano imperio militibus; a speech of great despair for the soldiers. And many the like. Surely princes had need, in tender matters and ticklish59 times, to beware what they say; especially in these short speeches, which fly abroad like darts60, and are thought to be shot out of their secret intentions. For as for large discourses, they are flat things, and not so much noted.
Lastly, let princes, against all events, not be without some great person, one or rather more, of military valor61, near unto them, for the repressing of seditions in their beginnings. For without that, there useth to be more trepidation62 in court upon the first breaking out of troubles, than were fit. And the state runneth the danger of that which Tacitus saith; Atque is habitus animorum fuit, ut pessimum facinus auderent pauci, plures vellent, omnes paterentur. But let such military persons be assured, and well reputed of, rather than factious63 and popular; holding also good correspondence with the other great men in the state; or else the remedy, is worse than the disease.
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1
licentious
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| adj.放纵的，淫乱的 | |
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2
discourses
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| 论文( discourse的名词复数 )； 演说； 讲道； 话语 | |
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relics
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| [pl.］n.遗物，遗迹，遗产；遗体，尸骸 | |
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sedition
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| n.煽动叛乱 | |
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preludes
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| n.开端( prelude的名词复数 )；序幕；序曲；短篇作品 | |
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tumults
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| 吵闹( tumult的名词复数 )； 喧哗； 激动的吵闹声； 心烦意乱 | |
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plausible
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| adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的 | |
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traduced
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| v.诋毁( traduce的过去式和过去分词 )；诽谤；违反；背叛 | |
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obedience
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| n.服从，顺从 | |
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cavilling
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| n.（矿工的）工作地点抽签法v.挑剔，吹毛求疵( cavil的现在分词 ) | |
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mandates
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| 托管（mandate的第三人称单数形式） | |
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yoke
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| n.轭；支配；v.给...上轭，连接，使成配偶 | |
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assay
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| n.试验，测定 | |
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overthrown
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| adj. 打翻的，推倒的，倾覆的 动词overthrow的过去分词 | |
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uneven
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| adj.不平坦的，不规则的，不均匀的 | |
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extirpation
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| n.消灭，根除，毁灭；摘除 | |
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discords
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| 不和（discord的复数形式） | |
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discord
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| n.不和，意见不合，争论，（音乐）不和谐 | |
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factions
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| 组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 ) | |
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faction
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| n.宗派，小集团；派别；派系斗争 | |
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reverence
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| n.敬畏，尊敬，尊严；Reverence:对某些基督教神职人员的尊称；v.尊敬，敬畏，崇敬 | |
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orbs
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| abbr.off-reservation boarding school 在校寄宿学校n.球，天体，圆形物( orb的名词复数 ) | |
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motives
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| n.动机，目的( motive的名词复数 ) | |
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imminent
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| adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的 | |
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belly
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| n.肚子，腹部；(像肚子一样)鼓起的部分，膛 | |
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politic
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| adj.有智虑的；精明的；v.从政 | |
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inflame
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| v.使燃烧；使极度激动；使发炎 | |
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spurn
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| v.拒绝，摈弃；n.轻视的拒绝；踢开 | |
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peril
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| n.(严重的)危险；危险的事物 | |
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30
vapor
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| n.蒸汽，雾气 | |
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31
fume
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| n.(usu pl.)(浓烈或难闻的)烟，气，汽 | |
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32
divers
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| adj.不同的；种种的 | |
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33
alteration
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| n.变更，改变；蚀变 | |
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34
advancement
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| n.前进，促进，提升 | |
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35
preservatives
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| n.防腐剂( preservative的名词复数 ) | |
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banishing
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| v.放逐，驱逐( banish的现在分词 ) | |
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vendible
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| adj.可销售的，可被普遍接受的n.可销售物 | |
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clergy
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| n.[总称]牧师，神职人员 | |
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whatsoever
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| adv.（用于否定句中以加强语气）任何；pron.无论什么 | |
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notably
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| adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地 | |
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devouring
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| 吞没( devour的现在分词 )； 耗尽； 津津有味地看； 狼吞虎咽地吃光 | |
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usury
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| n.高利贷 | |
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feign
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| vt.假装，佯作 | |
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emblem
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| n.象征，标志；徽章 | |
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monarchs
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| 君主，帝王( monarch的名词复数 ) | |
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malign
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| adj.有害的；恶性的；恶意的；v.诽谤，诬蔑 | |
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ulcers
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| n.溃疡( ulcer的名词复数 )；腐烂物；道德败坏；腐败 | |
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vessel
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| n.船舶；容器，器皿；管，导管，血管 | |
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antidotes
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| 解药( antidote的名词复数 )； 解毒剂； 对抗手段； 除害物 | |
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proceeding
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| n.行动，进行，(pl.)会议录，学报 | |
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peremptory
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| adj.紧急的，专横的，断然的 | |
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52
outlet
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| n.出口/路；销路；批发商店；通风口；发泄 | |
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53
foresight
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| n.先见之明，深谋远虑 | |
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adverse
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| adj.不利的；有害的；敌对的，不友好的 | |
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noted
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| adj.著名的，知名的 | |
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witty
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| adj.机智的，风趣的 | |
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utterly
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| adv.完全地，绝对地 | |
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Undid
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| v. 解开, 复原 | |
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ticklish
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| adj.怕痒的；问题棘手的；adv.怕痒地；n.怕痒，小心处理 | |
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60
darts
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| n.掷飞镖游戏；飞镖( dart的名词复数 )；急驰，飞奔v.投掷，投射( dart的第三人称单数 )；向前冲，飞奔 | |
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valor
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| n.勇气，英勇 | |
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trepidation
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| n.惊恐，惶恐 | |
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factious
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| adj.好搞宗派活动的，派系的，好争论的 | |
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