Seldon was not at all sure he would meet the Emperor. At best, he would meet some official in the fourth or fifth echelon1 who would claim to speak for the Emperor.
How many people ever did see the Emperor? In person, rather than on holovision? How many people saw the real, tangible2 Emperor, an Emperor who never left the Imperial grounds that he, Seldon, was now rolling over. The number was vanishingly small. Twenty-five million inhabited worlds, each with its cargo3 of a billion human beings or more--and among all those quadrillions of human beings, how many had, or would ever, lay eyes on the living Emperor. A thousand?
And did anyone care? The Emperor was no more than a symbol of Empire, like the Spaceship-and-Sun but far less pervasive4, far less real. It was his soldiers and his officials, crawling everywhere, that now represented an Empire that had become a dead weight upon its people--not the Emperor.
So it was that when Seldon was ushered5 into a moderately sized, lavishly6 furnished room and found a young-looking man sitting on the edge of a table in a windowed alcove7, one foot on the ground and one swinging over the edge, he found himself wondering that any official should be looking at him in so blandly8 good-natured a way. He had already experienced the fact, over and over, that government officials--and particularly those in the Imperial service--looked grave at all times, as though bearing the weight of the entire Galaxy9 on their shoulders. And it seemed the lower in importance they were, the graver and more threatening their expression.
This, then, might be an official so high in the scale, with the sun of power so bright upon him, that he felt no need of countering it with clouds of frowning. Seldon wasnt sure how impressed he ought to be, but he felt that it would be best to remain silent and let the other speak first. The official said, "You are Hari Seldon, I believe. The mathematician10."
Seldon responded with a minimal11 "Yes, sir," and waited again.
The young man waved an arm. "It should be Sire, but I hate ceremony. Its all I get and I weary of it. We are alone, so I will pamper13 myself and eschew14 ceremony. Sit down, professor."
Halfway15 through the speech, Seldon realized that he was speaking to the Emperor Cleon, First of that Name, and he felt the wind go out of him. There was a faint resemblance (now that he looked) to the official holograph that appeared constantly in the news, but in that holograph, Cleon was always dressed imposingly16, seemed taller, nobler, frozen-faced. And here he was, the original of the holograph, and somehow he appeared to be quite ordinary.
Seldon did not budge17.
The Emperor frowned slightly and, with the habit of command present even in the attempt to abolish it, at least temporarily, said peremptorily18, "I said, Sit down, man. That chair. Quickly."
Seldon sat down, quite speechless. He could not even bring himself to say, "Yes, Sire."
Cleon smiled. "Thats better. Now we can talk like two fellow human beings, which, after all, is what we are once ceremony is removed. Eh, my man?"
Seldon said cautiously, "If Your Imperial Majesty19 is content to say so, then it is so."
"Oh, come, why are you so cautious? I want to talk to you on equal terms. It is my pleasure to do so. Humor me."
"Yes, Sire."
"A simple Yes, man. Is there no way I can reach you?"
Cleon stared at Seldon and Seldon thought it was a lively and interested stare.
Finally the Emperor said, "You dont look like a mathematician."
At last, Seldon found himself able to smile. "I dont know what a mathematician is suppose to look like, Your Imp--"
Cleon raised a cautioning hand and Seldon choked off the honorific. Cleon said, "White-haired, I suppose. Bearded, perhaps. Old, certainly."
"Yet even mathematicians20 must be young to begin with."
"But they are then without reputation. By the time they obtrude21 themselves on the notice of the Galaxy, they are as I have described."
"I am without reputation, Im afraid."
"Yet you spoke22 at this convention they held here."
"A great many of us did. Some were younger than myself. Few of us were granted any attention whatever."
"Your talk apparently23 attracted the attention of some of my officials. I am given to understand that you believe it possible to predict the future."
Seldon suddenly felt weary. It seemed as though this misinterpretation of his theory was constantly going to occur. Perhaps he should not have presented his paper.
He said, "Not quite, actually. What I have done is much more limited than that. In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic24 events take place. That means that, given a particular starting point, it is impossible to predict outcomes. This is true even in some quite simple systems, but the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. It has always been assumed that anything as complicated as human society would quickly become chaotic and, therefore, unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumptions that will suppress the chaos25. That will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities."
The Emperor, who had listened carefully, said, "But doesnt that mean that you have shown how to predict the future?"
"Again, not quite. I have showed that it is theoretically possible, but no more. To do more, we would actually have to choose a correct starting point, make correct assumptions, and then find ways of carrying through calculations in a finite time. Nothing in my mathematical argument tells us how to do any of this. And even if we could do it all, we would, at best, only assess probabilities. That is not the same as predicting the future; it is merely a guess at what is likely to happen. Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful."
"They do it without mathematics."
"True. They do it by intuition."
"With the proper mathematics, anyone would be able to assess the probabilities. It wouldnt take the rare human being who is successful because of a remarkable26 intuitive sense."
"True again, but I have merely shown that mathematical analysis is possible; I have not shown it to be practical."
"How can something be possible, yet not practical?"
"It is theoretically possible for me to visit each world of the Galaxy and greet each person on each world. However, it would take far longer to do this than I have years to live and, even if I was immortal27, the rate at which new human beings are being born is greater than the rate at which I could interview the old and, even more to the point, old human beings would die in great numbers before I could ever get to them."
"And is this sort of thing true of your mathematics of the future?" Seldon hesitated, then went on. "It might be that the mathematics would take too long to work out, even if one had a computer the size of the Universe working at hyperspatial velocities28. By the time any answer had been received, enough years would have elapsed to alter the situation so grossly as to make the answer meaningless."
"Why cannot the process be simplified?" Cleon asked sharply.
"Your Imperial Majesty,"--Seldon felt the Emperor growing more formal as the answers grew less to his liking29 and responded with greater formality of his own, "consider the manner in which scientists have dealt with subatomic particles. There are enormous numbers of these, each moving or vibrating in random30 and unpredictable manner, but this chaos turns out to have an underlying31 order, so that we can work out a quantum mechanics that answers all the questions we know how to ask. In studying society, we place human beings in the place of subatomic particles, but now there is the added factor of the human mind. Particles move mindlessly; human beings do not. To take into account the various attitudes and impulses of mind adds so much complexity32 that there lacks time to take care of all of it."
"Could not mind, as well as mindless motion, have an underlying order?"
"Perhaps. My mathematical analysis implies that order must underlie33 everything, however disorderly it may appear to be, but it does not give any hint as to how this underlying order may be found. Consider--Twenty-five million worlds, each with its overall characteristics and culture, each being significantly different from all the rest, each containing a billion or more human beings who each have an individual mind, and all the worlds interacting in innumerable ways and combinations! However theoretically possible a psychohistorical analysis may be, it is not likely that it can be done in any practical sense."
"What do you mean psychohistorical?"
"I refer to the theoretical assessment35 of probabilities concerning the future as psychohistory. "
The Emperor rose to his feet suddenly, strode to the other end of the room, turned, strode back, and stopped before the still-sitting Seldon. "Stand up!" he commanded.
Seldon rose and looked up at the somewhat taller Emperor. He strove to keep his gaze steady.
Cleon finally said, "This psychohistory of yours ... if it could be made practical, it would be of great use, would it not?"
"Of enormous use, obviously. To know what the future holds, in even the most general and probabilistic way, would serve as a new and marvelous guide for our actions, one that humanity has never before had. But, of course--" He paused.
"Well?" said Cleon impatiently.
"Well, it would seem that, except for a few decision-makers, the results of psychohistorical analysis would have to remain unknown to the public."
"Unknown!" exclaimed Cleon with surprise.
"Its clear. Let me try to explain. If a psychohistorical analysis is made and the results are then given to the public, the various emotions and reactions of humanity would at once be distorted. The psychohistorical analysis, based on emotions and reactions that take place without knowledge of the future, become meaningless. Do you understand?"
The Emperors eyes brightened and he laughed aloud. "Wonderful!" He clapped his hand on Seldons shoulder and Seldon staggered slightly under the blow.
"Dont you see, man?" said Cleon. "Dont you see? Theres your use. You dont need to predict the future. Just choose a future--a good future, a useful future--and make the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions and reactions in such a way that the future you predicted will be brought about. Better to make a good future than predict a bad one."
Seldon frowned. "I see what you mean, Sire, but that is equally impossible."
"Impossible?"
"Well, at any rate, impractical36. Dont you see? If you cant34 start with human emotions and reactions and predict the future they will bring about, you cant do the reverse either. You cant start with a future and predict the human emotions and reactions that will bring it about."
Cleon looked frustrated37. His lips tightened38. "And your paper, then? ... Is that what you call it, a paper? ... Of what use is it?"
"It was merely a mathematical demonstration39. It made a point of interest to mathematicians, but there was no thought in my mind of its being useful in any way."
"I find that disgusting," said Cleon angrily.
Seldon shrugged40 slightly. More than ever, he knew he should never have given the paper. What would become of him if the Emperor took it into his head that he had been made to play the fool?
And indeed, Cleon did not look as though he was very far from believing that. "Nevertheless," he said, "what if you were to make predictions of the future, mathematically justified41 or not; predictions that government officials, human beings whose expertise42 it is to know what the public is likely to do, will judge to be the kind that will bring about useful reactions?"
"Why would you need me to do that? The government officials could make those predictions themselves and spare the middleman."
"The government officials could not do so as effectively. Government officials do make statements of the sort now and then. They are not necessarily believed."
"Why would I be?"
"You are a mathematician. You would have calculated the future, not ... not intuited it--if that is a word."
"But I would not have done so."
"Who would know that?" Cleon watched him out of narrowed eyes. There was a pause.
Seldon felt trapped. If given a direct order by the Emperor, would it be safe to refuse? If he refused, he might be imprisoned43 or executed. Not without trial, of course, but it is only with great difficulty that a trial can be made to go against the wishes of a heavy-handed officialdom, particularly one under the command of the Emperor of the vast Galactic Empire. He said finally, "It wouldnt work."
"Why not?"
"If I were asked to predict vague generalities that could not possibly come to pass until long after this generation and, perhaps, the next were dead, we might get away with it, but, on the other hand, the public would pay little attention. They would not care about a glowing eventuality a century or two in the future.
"To attain44 results," Seldon went on, "I would have to predict matters of sharper consequence, more immediate45 eventualities. Only to these would the public respond. Sooner or later, though--and probably sooner--one of the eventualities would not come to pass and my usefulness would be ended at once. With that, your popularity might be gone, too, and, worst of all, there would be no further support for the development of psychohistory so that there would be no chance for any good to come of it if future improvements in mathematical insights help to make it move closer to the realm of practicality."
Cleon threw himself into a chair and frowned at Seldon. "Is that all you mathematicians can do? Insist on impossibilities?"
Seldon said with desperate softness, "It is you, Sire, who insist on impossibilities."
"Let me test you, man. Suppose I asked you to use your mathematics to tell me whether I would some day be assassinated46? What would you say?"
"My mathematical system would not give an answer to so specific a question, even if psychohistory worked at its best. All the quantum mechanics in the world cannot make it possible to predict the behavior of one lone12 electron, only the average behavior of many."
"You know your mathematics better than I do. Make an educated guess based on it. Will I someday be assassinated?"
Seldon said softly, "You lay a trap for me, Sire. Either tell me what answer you wish and I will give it to you or else give me free right to make what answer I wish without punishment."
"Speak as you will."
"Your word of honor?"
"Do you want it an writing?" Cleon was sarcastic48.
"Your spoken word of honor will be sufficient," said Seldon, his heart sinking, for he was not certain it would be.
"You have my word of honor."
"Then I can tell you that in the past four centuries nearly half the Emperors have been assassinated, from which I conclude that the chances of your assassination49 are roughly one in two."
"Any fool can give that answer," said Cleon with contempt. "It takes no mathematician."
"Yet I have told you several times that my mathematics is useless for practical problems."
"Cant you even suppose that I learn the lessons that have been given me by my unfortunate predecessors50?"
Seldon took a deep breath and plunged51 in. "No, Sire. All history shows that we do not learn from the lessons of the past. For instance, you have allowed me here in a private audience. What if it were in my mind to assassinate47 you? Which it isnt, Sire," he added hastily.
Cleon smiled without humor. "My man, you dont take into account our thoroughness--or advances in technology. We have studied your history, your complete record. When you arrived, you were scanned. Your expression and voiceprints were analyzed52. We knew your emotional state in detail; we practically knew your thoughts. Had there been the slightest doubt of your harmlessness, you would not have been allowed near me. In fact, you would not now be alive."
A wave of nausea53 swept through Seldon, but he continued. "Outsiders have always found it difficult to get at Emperors, even with technology less advanced. However, almost every assassination has been a palace coup54. It is those nearest the Emperor who are the greatest danger to him. Against that danger, the careful screening of outsiders is irrelevant55. And as for your own officials, your own Guardsmen, your own intimates, you cannot treat them as you treat me."
Cleon said, "I know that, too, and at least as well as you do. The answer is that I treat those about me fairly and I give them no cause for resentment56."
"A foolish--" began Seldon, who then stopped in confusion.
"Go on," said Cleon angrily. "I have given you permission to speak freely. How am I foolish?"
"The word slipped out, Sire. I meant irrelevant. Your treatment of your intimates is irrelevant. You must be suspicious; it would be inhuman57 not to be. A careless word, such as the one I used, a careless gesture, a doubtful expression and you must withdraw a bit with narrowed eyes. And any touch of suspicion sets in motion a vicious cycle. The intimate will sense and resent the suspicion and will develop a changed behavior, try as he might to avoid it. You sense that and grow more suspicious and, in the end, either he is executed or you are assassinated. It is a process that has proved unavoidable for the Emperors of the past four centuries and it is but one sign of the increasing difficulty of conducting the affairs of the Empire."
"Then nothing I can do will avoid assassination."
"No, Sire," said Seldon, "but, on the other hand, you may prove fortunate."
Cleons fingers were drumming on the arm of his chair. He said harshly, "You are useless, man, and so is your psychohistory. Leave me." And with those words, the Emperor looked away, suddenly seeming much older than his thirty-two years.
"I have said my mathematics would be useless to you, Sire. My profound apologies." Seldon tried to bow but at some signal he did not see, two guards entered and took him away.
Cleons voice came after him from the royal chamber58. "Return that man to the place from which he was brought earlier."
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1
echelon
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| n.梯队；组织系统中的等级；v.排成梯队 | |
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tangible
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| adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的 | |
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cargo
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| n.(一只船或一架飞机运载的)货物 | |
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pervasive
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| adj.普遍的；遍布的，(到处)弥漫的；渗透性的 | |
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ushered
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| v.引，领，陪同( usher的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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lavishly
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| adv.慷慨地，大方地 | |
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alcove
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| n.凹室 | |
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blandly
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| adv.温和地，殷勤地 | |
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galaxy
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| n.星系；银河系；一群(杰出或著名的人物) | |
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mathematician
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| n.数学家 | |
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minimal
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| adj.尽可能少的，最小的 | |
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lone
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| adj.孤寂的，单独的；唯一的 | |
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pamper
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| v.纵容，过分关怀 | |
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eschew
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| v.避开，戒绝 | |
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15
halfway
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| adj.中途的，不彻底的，部分的；adv.半路地，在中途，在半途 | |
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imposingly
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budge
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| v.移动一点儿；改变立场 | |
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peremptorily
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| adv.紧急地，不容分说地，专横地 | |
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majesty
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| n.雄伟，壮丽，庄严，威严；最高权威，王权 | |
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20
mathematicians
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| 数学家( mathematician的名词复数 ) | |
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21
obtrude
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| v.闯入；侵入；打扰 | |
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22
spoke
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| n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说 | |
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23
apparently
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| adv.显然地；表面上，似乎 | |
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24
chaotic
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| adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的 | |
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chaos
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| n.混乱，无秩序 | |
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26
remarkable
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| adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的 | |
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immortal
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| adj.不朽的；永生的，不死的；神的 | |
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velocities
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| n.速度( velocity的名词复数 )；高速，快速 | |
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29
liking
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| n.爱好；嗜好；喜欢 | |
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30
random
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| adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动 | |
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underlying
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| adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的 | |
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complexity
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| n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物 | |
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33
underlie
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| v.位于...之下，成为...的基础 | |
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34
cant
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| n.斜穿，黑话，猛扔 | |
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35
assessment
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| n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额 | |
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impractical
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| adj.不现实的，不实用的，不切实际的 | |
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37
frustrated
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| adj.挫败的，失意的，泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的过去式和过去分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧 | |
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38
tightened
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| 收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧 | |
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39
demonstration
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| n.表明，示范，论证，示威 | |
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40
shrugged
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| vt.耸肩（shrug的过去式与过去分词形式） | |
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justified
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| a.正当的，有理的 | |
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42
expertise
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| n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长 | |
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43
imprisoned
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| 下狱，监禁( imprison的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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attain
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| vt.达到，获得，完成 | |
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45
immediate
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| adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的 | |
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46
assassinated
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| v.暗杀( assassinate的过去式和过去分词 )；中伤；诋毁；破坏 | |
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47
assassinate
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| vt.暗杀，行刺，中伤 | |
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48
sarcastic
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| adj.讥讽的，讽刺的，嘲弄的 | |
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49
assassination
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| n.暗杀；暗杀事件 | |
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50
predecessors
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| n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身 | |
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51
plunged
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| v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降 | |
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52
analyzed
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| v.分析( analyze的过去式和过去分词 )；分解；解释；对…进行心理分析 | |
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53
nausea
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| n.作呕，恶心；极端的憎恶(或厌恶) | |
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54
coup
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| n.政变；突然而成功的行动 | |
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55
irrelevant
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| adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的 | |
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56
resentment
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| n.怨愤，忿恨 | |
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57
inhuman
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| adj.残忍的，不人道的，无人性的 | |
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58
chamber
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| n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所 | |
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