They were now racing1 rapidly through the tunnel once more. Seldon decided2 to give voice to the question that had been nagging3 at him for the last hour or so.
"Why do you say the Galactic Empire is dying?"
Hummin turned to look at Seldon again. "As a journalist, I have statistics poured into me from all sides till theyre squeezing out of my ears. And Im allowed to publish very little of it. Trantors population is decreasing. Twenty-five years ago, it stood at almost forty-five billion. "Partly, this decrease is because of a decline in the birthrate. To be sure, Trantor never has had a high birthrate. If youll look about you when youre traveling on Trantor, you wont4 encounter very many children, considering the enormous population. But just the same its declining. Then too there is emigration. People are leaving Trantor in greater numbers than are arriving."
"Considering its large population," said Seldon, "thats not surprising."
"But its unusual just the same because it hasnt happened before. Again, all over the Galaxy5 trade is stagnating6. People think that because there are no rebellions at the moment and because things are quiet that all is well and that the difficulties of the past few centuries are over. However, political infighting, rebellions, and unrest are all signs of a certain vitality7 too. But now theres a general weariness. Its quiet, not because people are satisfied and prosperous, but because theyre tired and have given up."
"Oh, I dont know," said Seldon dubiously8.
"I do. And the antigrav phenomenon weve talked about is another case in point. We have a few gravitic lifts in operation, but new ones arent being constructed. Its an unprofitable venture and there seems no interest in trying to make it profitable. The rate of technological9 advance has been slowing for centuries and is down to a crawl now. In some cases, it has stopped altogether. Isnt this something youve noticed? After all, youre a mathematician10."
"I cant11 say Ive given the matter any thought."
"No one does. Its accepted. Scientists are very good these days at saying that things are impossible, impractical12, useless. They condemn13 any speculation14 at once. You, for instance--What do you think of psychohistory? It is theoretically interesting, but it is useless in any practical sense. Am I right?"
"Yes and no," said Seldon, annoyed. "It is useless in any practical sense, but not because my sense of adventure has decayed, I assure you. It really it useless."
"That, at least," said Hummin with a trace of sarcasm15, "is your impression in this atmosphere of decay in which all the Empire lives."
"This atmosphere of decay," said Seldon angrily, "is your impression. Is it possible that you are wrong?"
Hummin stopped and for a moment appeared thoughtful. Then he said, "Yes, I might be wrong. I am speaking only from intuition, from guesses. What I need is a working technique of psychohistory."
Seldon shrugged16 and did not take the bait. He said, "I dont have such a technique to give you.--But suppose youre right. Suppose the Empire it running down and will eventually stop and fall apart. The human species will still exist."
"Under what conditions, man? For nearly twelve thousand years, Trantor, under strong rulers, has largely kept the peace. Thereve been interruptions to that--rebellions, localized civil wars, tragedy in plenty--but, on the whole and over large areas, there has been peace. Why is Helicon so pro-Imperium? Your world, I mean. Because it is small and would be devoured17 by its neighbors were it not that the Empire keeps it secure."
"Are you predicting universal war and anarchy18 if the Empire fails?"
"Of course. Im not fond of the Emperor oooof the Imperial institutions in general, but I dont have any substitute for it. I dont know what else will keep the peace and Im not ready to let go until I have something else in hand."
Seldon said, "You talk as though you are in control of the Galaxy. You are not ready to let go? You must have something else in hand? Who are you to talk so?"
"Im speaking generally, figuratively," said Hummin. "Im not worried about Chetter Hummin personally. It might be said that the Empire will last my time; it might even show signs of improvement in my time. Declines dont follow a straight-line path. It may be a thousand years before the final crash and you might well imagine I would be dead then and, certainly, I will leave no descendants. As far as women are concerned, I have nothing but the occasional casual attachment19 and I have no children and intend to have none. I have given no hostages to fortune.--I looked you up after your talk, Seldon. You have no children either."
"I have parents and two brothers, but no children." He smiled rather weakly. "I was very attached to a woman at one time, but it seemed to her that I was attached more to my mathematics."
"Were you?"
"It didnt seem so to me, but it seemed so to her. So she left."
"And you have had no one since?"
"No. I remember the pain too clearly as yet."
"Well then, it might seem we could both wait out the matter and leave it to other people, well after our time, to suffer. I might have been willing to accept that earlier, but no longer. For now I have a tool; I am in command."
"Whats your tool?" asked Seldon, already knowing the answer.
"You!" said Hummin.
And because Seldon had known what Hummin would say, he wasted no time in being shocked or astonished. He simply shook his head and said, "You are quite wrong. I am no tool fit for use."
"Why not?"
Seldon sighed. "How often must I repeat it? Psychohistory is not a practical study. The difficulty is fundamental. All the space and time of the Universe would not suffice to work out the necessary problems."
"Are you certain of that?"
"Unfortunately, yes."
"Theres no question of your working out the entire future of the Galactic Empire, you know. You neednt trace out in detail the workings of every human being or even of every world. There are merely terrain20 questions you must answer: Will the Galactic Empire crash and, if so, when? What will be the condition of humanity afterward21? Can anything be done to prevent the crash or to ameliorate conditions afterward? These are comparatively simple questions, it seems to me."
Seldon shook his head and smiled sadly. "The history of mathematics is full of simple questions that had only the most complicated of answers--or none at all."
"Is there nothing to be done? I can see that the Empire is falling, but I cant prove it. All my conclusions are subjective22 and I cannot show that I am not mistaken. Because the view is a seriously unsettling one, people would prefer not to believe my subjective conclusion and nothing will be done to prevent the Fall or even to cushion it. You could prove the coming Fall or, for that matter, disprove it."
"But that is exactly what I cannot do. I cant find you proof where none exists. I cant make a mathematical system practical when it isnt. I cant find you two even numbers that will yield an odd number as a sum, no matter how vitally your all the Galaxy--may need that odd number."
Hummin said, "Well then, youre part of the decay. Youre ready to accept failure."
"What choice have I?"
"Cant you try? However useless the effort may seem to you to be, have you anything better to do with your life? Have you some worthier23 goal? Have you a purpose that will justify24 you in your own eyes to some greater extent?" Seldons eyes blinked rapidly. "Millions of worlds. Billions of cultures. Quadrillions of people. Decillions of interrelationships.--And you want me to reduce it to order."
"No, I want you to try. For the sake of those millions of worlds, billions of cultures, and quadrillions of people. Not for the Emperor. Not for Demerzel. For humanity."
"I will fail," said Seldon.
"Then we will be no worse off. Will you try?"
And against his will and not knowing why, Seldon heard himself say, "I will try."
And the course of his life was set.
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1
racing
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| n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的 | |
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2
decided
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| adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的 | |
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3
nagging
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| adj.唠叨的，挑剔的；使人不得安宁的v.不断地挑剔或批评（某人）( nag的现在分词 )；不断地烦扰或伤害（某人）；无休止地抱怨；不断指责 | |
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wont
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| adj.习惯于；v.习惯；n.习惯 | |
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galaxy
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| n.星系；银河系；一群(杰出或著名的人物) | |
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6
stagnating
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| v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的现在分词 ) | |
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7
vitality
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| n.活力，生命力，效力 | |
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dubiously
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| adv.可疑地，怀疑地 | |
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9
technological
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| adj.技术的；工艺的 | |
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mathematician
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| n.数学家 | |
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11
cant
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| n.斜穿，黑话，猛扔 | |
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12
impractical
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| adj.不现实的，不实用的，不切实际的 | |
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13
condemn
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| vt.谴责，指责；宣判(罪犯)，判刑 | |
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14
speculation
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| n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机 | |
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15
sarcasm
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| n.讥讽，讽刺，嘲弄，反话 （adj.sarcastic） | |
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16
shrugged
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| vt.耸肩（shrug的过去式与过去分词形式） | |
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devoured
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| 吞没( devour的过去式和过去分词 )； 耗尽； 津津有味地看； 狼吞虎咽地吃光 | |
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18
anarchy
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| n.无政府状态；社会秩序混乱，无秩序 | |
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attachment
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| n.附属物，附件；依恋；依附 | |
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terrain
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| n.地面，地形，地图 | |
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afterward
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| adv.后来；以后 | |
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subjective
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| a.主观(上)的，个人的 | |
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23
worthier
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| 应得某事物( worthy的比较级 )； 值得做某事； 可尊敬的； 有（某人或事物）的典型特征 | |
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justify
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| vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护 | |
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