Although nothing less than results from actual experiments are acceptable to him as established facts, this view of Edison may also account for his peculiar7 and somewhat weird8 ability to "guess" correctly, a faculty9 which has frequently enabled him to take short cuts to lines of investigation10 whose outcome has verified in a most remarkable11 degree statements apparently12 made offhand13 and without calculation. Mr. Upton says: "One of the main impressions left upon me, after knowing Mr. Edison for many years, is the marvellous accuracy of his guesses. He will see the general nature of a result long before it can be reached by mathematical calculation." This was supplemented by one of his engineering staff, who remarked: "Mr. Edison can guess better than a good many men can figure, and so far as my experience goes, I have found that he is almost invariably correct. His guess is more than a mere14 starting-point, and often turns out to be the final solution of a problem. I can only account for it by his remarkable insight and wonderful natural sense of the proportion of things, in addition to which he seems to carry in his head determining factors of all kinds, and has the ability to apply them instantly in considering any mechanical problem."
While this mysterious intuitive power has been of the greatest advantage in connection with the vast number of technical problems that have entered into his life-work, there have been many remarkable instances in which it has seemed little less than prophecy, and it is deemed worth while to digress to the extent of relating two of them. One day in the summer of 1881, when the incandescent16 lamp-industry was still in swaddling clothes, Edison was seated in the room of Major Eaton, vice-president of the Edison Electric Light Company, talking over business matters, when Mr. Upton came in from the lamp factory at Menlo Park, and said: "Well, Mr. Edison, we completed a thousand lamps to-day." Edison looked up and said "Good," then relapsed into a thoughtful mood. In about two minutes he raised his head, and said: "Upton, in fifteen years you will be making forty thousand lamps a day." None of those present ventured to make any remark on this assertion, although all felt that it was merely a random guess, based on the sanguine17 dream of an inventor. The business had not then really made a start, and being entirely18 new was without precedent19 upon which to base any such statement, but, as a matter of fact, the records of the lamp factory show that in 1896 its daily output of lamps was actually about forty thousand.
The other instance referred to occurred shortly after the Edison Machine Works was moved up to Schenectady, in 1886. One day, when he was at the works, Edison sat down and wrote on a sheet of paper fifteen separate predictions of the growth and future of the electrical business. Notwithstanding the fact that the industry was then in an immature20 state, and that the great boom did not set in until a few years afterward21, twelve of these predictions have been fully22 verified by the enormous growth and development in all branches of the art.
What the explanation of this gift, power, or intuition may be, is perhaps better left to the psychologist to speculate upon. If one were to ask Edison, he would probably say, "Hard work, not too much sleep, and free use of the imagination." Whether or not it would be possible for the average mortal to arrive at such perfection of "guessing" by faithfully following this formula, even reinforced by the Edison recipe for stimulating23 a slow imagination with pastry24, is open for demonstration25.
Somewhat allied26 to this curious faculty is another no less remarkable, and that is, the ability to point out instantly an error in a mass of reported experimental results. While many instances could be definitely named, a typical one, related by Mr. J. D. Flack, formerly27 master mechanic at the lamp factory, may be quoted: "During the many years of lamp experimentation28, batches29 of lamps were sent to the photometer department for test, and Edison would examine the tabulated30 test sheets. He ran over every item of the tabulations rapidly, and, apparently without any calculation whatever, would check off errors as fast as he came to them, saying: 'You have made a mistake; try this one over.' In every case the second test proved that he was right. This wonderful aptitude31 for infallibly locating an error without an instant's hesitation32 for mental calculation, has always appealed to me very forcibly."
The ability to detect errors quickly in a series of experiments is one of the things that has enabled Edison to accomplish such a vast amount of work as the records show. Examples of the minuteness of detail into which his researches extend have already been mentioned, and as there are always a number of such investigations33 in progress at the laboratory, this ability stands Edison in good stead, for he is thus enabled to follow, and, if necessary, correct each one step by step. In this he is aided by the great powers of a mind that is able to free itself from absorbed concentration on the details of one problem, and instantly to shift over and become deeply and intelligently concentrated in another and entirely different one. For instance, he may have been busy for hours on chemical experiments, and be called upon suddenly to determine some mechanical questions. The complete and easy transition is the constant wonder of his associates, for there is no confusion of ideas resulting from these quick changes, no hesitation or apparent effort, but a plunge into the midst of the new subject, and an instant acquaintance with all its details, as if he had been studying it for hours.
A good stiff difficulty—one which may, perhaps, appear to be an unsurmountable obstacle—only serves to make Edison cheerful, and brings out variations of his methods in experimenting. Such an occurrence will start him thinking, which soon gives rise to a line of suggestions for approaching the trouble from various sides; or he will sit down and write out a series of eliminations34, additions, or changes to be worked out and reported upon, with such variations as may suggest themselves during their progress. It is at such times as these that his unfailing patience and tremendous resourcefulness are in evidence. Ideas and expedients35 are poured forth36 in a torrent37, and although some of them have temporarily appeared to the staff to be ridiculous or irrelevant38, they have frequently turned out to be the ones leading to a correct solution of the trouble.
Edison's inexhaustible resourcefulness and fertility of ideas have contributed largely to his great success, and have ever been a cause of amazement39 to those around him. Frequently, when it would seem to others that the extreme end of an apparently blind alley40 had been reached, and that it was impossible to proceed further, he has shown that there were several ways out of it. Examples without number could be quoted, but one must suffice by way of illustration. During the progress of the ore-milling work at Edison, it became desirable to carry on a certain operation by some special machinery41. He requested the proper person on his engineering staff to think this matter up and submit a few sketches42 of what he would propose to do. He brought three drawings to Edison, who examined them and said none of them would answer. The engineer remarked that it was too bad, for there was no other way to do it. Mr. Edison turned to him quickly, and said: "Do you mean to say that these drawings represent the only way to do this work?" To which he received the reply: "I certainly do." Edison said nothing. This happened on a Saturday. He followed his usual custom of spending Sunday at home in Orange. When he returned to the works on Monday morning, he took with him sketches he had made, showing FORTY-EIGHT other ways of accomplishing the desired operation, and laid them on the engineer's desk without a word. Subsequently one of these ideas, with modifications43 suggested by some of the others, was put into successful practice.
Difficulties seem to have a peculiar charm for Edison, whether they relate to large or small things; and although the larger matters have contributed most to the history of the arts, the same carefulness of thought has often been the means of leading to improvements of permanent advantage even in minor44 details. For instance, in the very earliest days of electric lighting45, the safe insulation46 of two bare wires fastened together was a serious problem that was solved by him. An iron pot over a fire, some insulating material melted therein, and narrow strips of linen47 drawn48 through it by means of a wooden clamp, furnished a readily applied49 and adhesive50 insulation, which was just as perfect for the purpose as the regular and now well-known insulating tape, of which it was the forerunner51.
Dubious52 results are not tolerated for a moment in Edison's experimental work. Rather than pass upon an uncertainty, the experiment will be dissected53 and checked minutely in order to obtain absolute knowledge, pro2 and con15. This searching method is followed not only in chemical or other investigations, into which complexities54 might naturally enter, but also in more mechanical questions, where simplicity55 of construction might naturally seem to preclude56 possibilities of uncertainty. For instance, at the time when he was making strenuous57 endeavors to obtain copper58 wire of high conductivity, strict laboratory tests were made of samples sent by manufacturers. One of these samples tested out poorer than a previous lot furnished from the same factory. A report of this to Edison brought the following note: "Perhaps the —— wire had a bad spot in it. Please cut it up into lengths and test each one and send results to me immediately." Possibly the electrical fraternity does not realize that this earnest work of Edison, twenty-eight years ago, resulted in the establishment of the high quality of copper wire that has been the recognized standard since that time. Says Edison on this point: "I furnished the expert and apparatus59 to the Ansonia Brass60 and Copper Company in 1883, and he is there yet. It was this expert and this company who pioneered high-conductivity copper for the electrical trade."
Nor is it generally appreciated in the industry that the adoption61 of what is now regarded as a most obvious proposition—the high-economy incandescent lamp—was the result of that characteristic foresight62 which there has been occasion to mention frequently in the course of this narrative63, together with the courage and "horse-sense" which have always been displayed by the inventor in his persistent64 pushing out with far-reaching ideas, in the face of pessimistic opinions. As is well known, the lamps of the first ten or twelve years of incandescent lighting were of low economy, but had long life. Edison's study of the subject had led him to the conviction that the greatest growth of the electric-lighting industry would be favored by a lamp taking less current, but having shorter, though commercially economical life; and after gradually making improvements along this line he developed, finally, a type of high-economy lamp which would introduce a most radical65 change in existing conditions, and lead ultimately to highly advantageous66 results. His start on this lamp, and an expressed desire to have it manufactured for regular use, filled even some of his business associates with dismay, for they could see nothing but disaster ahead in forcing such a lamp on the market. His persistence67 and profound conviction of the ultimate results were so strong and his arguments so sound, however, that the campaign was entered upon. Although it took two or three years to convince the public of the correctness of his views, the idea gradually took strong root, and has now become an integral principle of the business.
In this connection it may be noted68 that with remarkable prescience Edison saw the coming of the modern lamps of to-day, which, by reason of their small consumption of energy to produce a given candle-power, have dismayed central-station managers. A few years ago a consumption of 3.1 watts69 per candle-power might safely be assumed as an excellent average, and many stations fixed70 their rates and business on such a basis. The results on income when the consumption, as in the new metallic-filament lamps, drops to 1.25 watts per candle can readily be imagined. Edison has insisted that central stations are selling light and not current; and he points to the predicament now confronting them as truth of his assertion that when selling light they share in all the benefits of improvement, but that when they sell current the consumer gets all those benefits without division. The dilemma71 is encountered by central stations in a bewildered way, as a novel and unexpected experience; but Edison foresaw the situation and warned against it long ago. It is one of the greatest gifts of statesmanship to see new social problems years before they arise and solve them in advance. It is one of the greatest attributes of invention to foresee and meet its own problems in exactly the same way.
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1
uncertainty
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| n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物 | |
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pro
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| n.赞成，赞成的意见，赞成者 | |
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plunge
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| v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲 | |
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random
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| adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动 | |
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analytical
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| adj.分析的；用分析法的 | |
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apprehension
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| n.理解，领悟；逮捕，拘捕；忧虑 | |
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peculiar
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| adj.古怪的，异常的；特殊的，特有的 | |
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weird
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| adj.古怪的，离奇的；怪诞的，神秘而可怕的 | |
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faculty
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| n.才能；学院，系；(学院或系的)全体教学人员 | |
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investigation
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| n.调查，调查研究 | |
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remarkable
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| adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的 | |
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12
apparently
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| adv.显然地；表面上，似乎 | |
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offhand
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| adj.临时，无准备的；随便，马虎的 | |
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14
mere
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| adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过 | |
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con
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| n.反对的观点，反对者，反对票，肺病；vt.精读，学习，默记；adv.反对地，从反面；adj.欺诈的 | |
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incandescent
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| adj.遇热发光的， 白炽的，感情强烈的 | |
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sanguine
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| adj.充满希望的，乐观的，血红色的 | |
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18
entirely
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| ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地 | |
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precedent
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| n.先例，前例；惯例；adj.在前的，在先的 | |
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immature
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| adj.未成熟的，发育未全的，未充分发展的 | |
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afterward
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| adv.后来；以后 | |
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fully
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| adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地 | |
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23
stimulating
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| adj.有启发性的，能激发人思考的 | |
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pastry
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| n.油酥面团，酥皮糕点 | |
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demonstration
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| n.表明，示范，论证，示威 | |
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allied
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| adj.协约国的；同盟国的 | |
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formerly
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| adv.从前，以前 | |
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experimentation
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| n.实验，试验，实验法 | |
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batches
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| 一批( batch的名词复数 )； 一炉； （食物、药物等的）一批生产的量； 成批作业 | |
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tabulated
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| 把（数字、事实）列成表( tabulate的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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aptitude
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| n.(学习方面的)才能，资质，天资 | |
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hesitation
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| n.犹豫，踌躇 | |
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investigations
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| （正式的）调查( investigation的名词复数 )； 侦查； 科学研究； 学术研究 | |
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34
eliminations
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| n.排除( elimination的名词复数 )；除去；根除；淘汰 | |
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expedients
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| n.应急有效的，权宜之计的( expedient的名词复数 ) | |
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forth
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| adv.向前；向外，往外 | |
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torrent
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| n.激流，洪流；爆发，(话语等的)连发 | |
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irrelevant
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| adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的 | |
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amazement
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| n.惊奇，惊讶 | |
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alley
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| n.小巷，胡同；小径，小路 | |
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41
machinery
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| n.(总称)机械，机器；机构 | |
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42
sketches
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| n.草图( sketch的名词复数 )；素描；速写；梗概 | |
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modifications
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| n.缓和( modification的名词复数 )；限制；更改；改变 | |
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minor
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| adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修 | |
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45
lighting
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| n.照明，光线的明暗，舞台灯光 | |
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46
insulation
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| n.隔离；绝缘；隔热 | |
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47
linen
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| n.亚麻布，亚麻线，亚麻制品；adj.亚麻布制的，亚麻的 | |
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48
drawn
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| v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的 | |
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49
applied
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| adj.应用的；v.应用，适用 | |
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50
adhesive
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| n.粘合剂；adj.可粘着的，粘性的 | |
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51
forerunner
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| n.前身，先驱（者），预兆，祖先 | |
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52
dubious
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| adj.怀疑的，无把握的；有问题的，靠不住的 | |
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53
dissected
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| adj.切开的，分割的，（叶子）多裂的v.解剖（动物等）( dissect的过去式和过去分词 )；仔细分析或研究 | |
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54
complexities
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| 复杂性(complexity的名词复数)； 复杂的事物 | |
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simplicity
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| n.简单，简易；朴素；直率，单纯 | |
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56
preclude
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| vt.阻止，排除，防止；妨碍 | |
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strenuous
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| adj.奋发的，使劲的；紧张的；热烈的，狂热的 | |
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58
copper
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| n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的 | |
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59
apparatus
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| n.装置，器械；器具，设备 | |
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60
brass
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| n.黄铜；黄铜器，铜管乐器 | |
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61
adoption
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| n.采用，采纳，通过；收养 | |
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62
foresight
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| n.先见之明，深谋远虑 | |
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narrative
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| n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的 | |
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64
persistent
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| adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的 | |
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65
radical
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| n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的 | |
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66
advantageous
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| adj.有利的；有帮助的 | |
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67
persistence
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| n.坚持，持续，存留 | |
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68
noted
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| adj.著名的，知名的 | |
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69
watts
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| （电力计量单位）瓦，瓦特( watt的名词复数 ) | |
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70
fixed
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| adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的 | |
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dilemma
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| n.困境，进退两难的局面 | |
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