Germany having been overthrown2 and disarmed3 after a prodigious4 effort, involving a strain upon the combined strength of America, Italy, and the whole British Empire, as well as France, and her arms bound with the thongs5 of a stern treaty, the process of dancing upon her while she is down can at any time now be performed with complete impunity6 by any one of these powers alone.
The spectacle every time it is repeated, provides much satisfaction to those who indulge in the barren delights of revenging the memory of past wrongs. There is no doubt some joy for the [Pg 157]unsportsmanlike mind in kicking a helpless giant who once maltreated you and who, but for the assistance of powerful neighbours, would have done so a second time.
But what good will it bring devastated7 France or her overtaxed Allies? The additional coal and timber that will be wrung8 out of Germany will barely cover the direct cost of collection. Although Germany bears the extra cost, the expense of these punitive9 measures must all in the end diminish the means of reparation, and therefore fall on the victor.
How many students of the problem of reparations have ever taken the trouble to ascertain10 the extent to which the maintenance of Allied11 armies of occupation has already drained the resources of Germany? Between direct cash payments, the cost of supplies, and outlay12 in labour and material for building huge barracks, these armies have already cost Germany 6,000,000,000 gold marks—roughly 1,200,000,000 dollars, or over ￡300,000,000.
How much better it would have been if most of this money had gone towards rebuilding the devastated area!
It is not without significance, now that war is[Pg 158] being waged against Germany for what the American representative in Paris termed her technical default, to recollect13 that, between the expense of the army of occupation and contributions already made towards reparations, Germany has already paid to the Allies over three times the amount of the total indemnity14 exacted by Bismarck in 1871.
This is without making any allowance for the vast and highly developed colonies which she surrendered. Let, therefore, no one approach this problem as if he were dealing15 with a recalcitrant16 country that is deliberately17 refusing to acknowledge any of her obligations under a treaty which she has signed.
The costs of the last war are acknowledged to be irrecoverable. It is difficult enough to find the means for payment of damages. Who will pay the growing cost of this new war?
So far I have referred only to the direct outlay upon these aggressive measures. The indirect cost to victor and vanquished18 alike will be crushing.
It is already accumulating. The mere19 threat has depreciated20 the value of the franc, and thus reduced its purchasing capacity abroad. This loss must be borne by the French consumer. There may be a[Pg 159] rally; but I shall be surprised if the improvement is more than temporary.
All that is obvious for the moment to the untrained eye is the way in which the mark is dragging the French and Belgian franc slowly along its own downward course.
As the distance between them lengthens21 and the invisible cord which ties them together becomes more and more attenuated22, it may ultimately snap and the franc be released from this dangerous association. That I doubt, for a bankrupt Germany means a country to which even the most hopeful cannot look as a means of redeeming23 French deficits24.
Once that is clear to the French peasant he will not so readily part with his savings25, and the real difficulties of French finance will begin at that stage. A policy, therefore, which demoralises the German currency is one which is also fatal to the solvency26 of French finance.
Let us follow the probable sequence of events. The terrified German mark is rushing headlong to the bottom of the pit where the Austrian krone is already lost beyond rescue.
As long as reparation coal is dug out by bayonets,[Pg 160] and reparation timber is cut down by swords, it is idle to talk of restoring the mark by putting German finance in order.
No tariff27, however nimble, can keep pace with the runaway28 mark. It would baffle the most resourceful finance minister to adapt his budget to a currency which disappears beyond the horizon while he is sitting at his desk to pen his proposals.
If the mere threat of force has produced such a panic, what will be the effect of the actual measures? It is safe to predict that the advance of French troops into Germany will not restore the composure of the frightened mark and arrest its flight.
What, then, becomes of the hope of renewed payments of the annuity29? At best Germany could only be expected to pay when her foreign trade was so improved that she could provide a margin30 out of her exports with which to pay her annuities31. Her foreign trade is largely dependent upon her foreign exchanges. These are now destroyed beyond prospect32 of recovery for years.
Britain proposed a voluntary moratorium33 for a short term of years in order to place Germany in a position where she could at the end of that term pay a reasonable annuity. The French [Pg 161]government have in effect substituted a compulsory34 moratorium for an indefinite period with no prospect of payment in sight.
The only chance of securing an early instalment of reparation payments was by pressing Germany to put her finances in order and giving her fair time in which to do so. The only chance of negotiating a loan on German security to assist France to pay for the repair of her devastated provinces, and to enable her to put her own finances in order, was by restoring the stability of German currency.
French statesmen have deliberately thrown both these chances away. The effect on the value of their own currency must be grave, and Frenchmen will have to pay in increased cost of living for a venture dictated35 by short-sighted and short-tempered statesmanship.
When one thinks of the consequences one is driven to ask whether French politicians are really seeking reparations or are pursuing another purpose quite incompatible36 with the recovery of money payments under the treaty.
This is the wrong road to reparations. It leads in exactly the opposite direction.
Whither, then, does it lead? There is no doubt[Pg 162] that its effect will be ruinous as far as German industry is concerned. I have already dealt with its disastrous37 influence upon German currency, and with the indirect effect of a rapidly depreciating38 currency upon German foreign trade. The seizure39 of the Ruhr mines will have another serious effect.
Even now the result of the compulsory alienation40 of so much of Germany's coal supply in the Ruhr, in Silesia, and the Saar, from German industry, has diminished German productiveness. The fuel deficiency thereby41 created inside Germany has been partially42 supplied by purchases of coal from outside sources. The necessity for providing gold to pay for foreign coal has added considerably43 to Germany's financial difficulties.
A still larger foreign purchase will be the inevitable44 result of the forcible diversion of large quantities of Ruhr coal to France and Italy, with further financial embarrassments45 as a consequence.
That is bad enough. But I fear worse. Will the German miner work with the same regularity46 and efficiency for a foreign master as he does for a German employer? Is there the least possibility of the production being maintained at its present level?
The influence of this added muddle47 on world[Pg 163] trade is incalculable. Nobody gains; everybody is a loser by the move. How is a Germany whose embarrassed finances are made still more involved—how is a Germany whose industry becomes more and more difficult—how is a Germany reduced to despair to be of the slightest use to France, Belgium, Italy, or anybody else?
The feather-headed scribes who have advocated this rash policy assume that France will be helped because Germany will thus be reduced to impotence. For how long?
The disintegration48 of Germany is not an unlikely consequence of this move. I know that is the expectation. Frenchmen still hanker after the days when Saxons and Bavarians and Wurtembergers were allies, and almost vassals49, of France against Prussia. It was the lure50 that led the Third Napoleon to his ruin. It is the attraction which is now drawing France once more to a sure doom51. The policy will bring no security to France in the future. It deprives her of all hope of reparations in the immediate52 present. There will no longer be a Germany to pay. It would be too hopeless a task to attempt recovery from each of the severed53 states.
[Pg 164]
But what of increased security? Nothing can keep Germans permanently54 apart. They will, at the suitable moment reunite under more favourable55 conditions, freed from external as well as internal debt. France will have lost her reparations and only retained the hatred56 of an implacable foe57 become more redoubtable58 than ever.
How would Europe have fared in the interval59 whilst France was learning from events what every other country can see now? There is no knowing what will happen when a brave people of 60,000,000 find themselves faced with utter ruin. Whether they turn to the left or to the right will depend on questions of personal leadership, which are not yet determined60. All we can be sure of is that they can hardly go on as they are, maintaining an honest struggle for ordered freedom and democratic self-government. The French proclamation, with its threat of "severest measures in case of recalcitrancy," is ominous61 of much that may happen. No people accustomed to national independence have ever been able long to tolerate a foreign yoke62.
Chancellor63 Cuno's action is the first manifestation64 of the spirit of revolt. It will certainly grow in intensity65. The lash66 will then fall, sooner or[Pg 165] later, and Germany will be inevitably67 driven to desperate courses. A Communist Germany would infect Europe. European vitality68 is so lowered by exhaustion69 that it is in no condition to resist the plague. Would a reactionary70 Germany be much better—brooding and scheming vengeance71?
Russia, with her incalculable resources of men and material, is at hand, needing all that Germany can best give and best spare. The Bolshevik leaders only require what Germany is so well fitted to supply in order to reorganise their country and convert it into the most formidable state in Europe or Asia.
Nations hard pressed on the East have in the past moved forward irresistibly72 to the West. In obedience73 to the same law a people hard pressed on the West will look to the East.
When the French troops marched on Essen they began a movement the most far-reaching, and probably the most sinister74 in its consequences, that has been witnessed for many centuries in Europe. And these are the people who, after fifty years of patient and laborious75 waiting, have demonstrated to the world in 1918 the stupidity of abusing victory in 1871.
[Pg 166]
If the teacher so soon forgets his own special lesson the pupil is not likely to remember when fury overcomes terror.
Algeciras, January 15th, 1923.
点击
收听单词发音
收听单词发音 |
1
prostrate
|
|
| v.拜倒，平卧，衰竭；adj.拜倒的，平卧的，衰竭的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
2
overthrown
|
|
| adj. 打翻的，推倒的，倾覆的 动词overthrow的过去分词 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
3
disarmed
|
|
| v.裁军( disarm的过去式和过去分词 )；使息怒 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
4
prodigious
|
|
| adj.惊人的，奇妙的；异常的；巨大的；庞大的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
5
thongs
|
|
| 的东西 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
6
impunity
|
|
| n.(惩罚、损失、伤害等的)免除 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
7
devastated
|
|
| v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
8
wrung
|
|
| 绞( wring的过去式和过去分词 )； 握紧（尤指别人的手）； 把（湿衣服）拧干； 绞掉（水） | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
9
punitive
|
|
| adj.惩罚的，刑罚的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
10
ascertain
|
|
| vt.发现，确定，查明，弄清 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
11
allied
|
|
| adj.协约国的；同盟国的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
12
outlay
|
|
| n.费用，经费，支出；v.花费 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
13
recollect
|
|
| v.回忆，想起，记起，忆起，记得 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
14
indemnity
|
|
| n.赔偿，赔款，补偿金 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
15
dealing
|
|
| n.经商方法，待人态度 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
16
recalcitrant
|
|
| adj.倔强的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
17
deliberately
|
|
| adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
18
vanquished
|
|
| v.征服( vanquish的过去式和过去分词 )；战胜；克服；抑制 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
19
mere
|
|
| adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
20
depreciated
|
|
| v.贬值，跌价，减价( depreciate的过去式和过去分词 )；贬低，蔑视，轻视 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
21
lengthens
|
|
| （时间或空间）延长，伸长( lengthen的第三人称单数 ) | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
22
attenuated
|
|
| v.（使）变细( attenuate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）变薄；（使）变小；减弱 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
23
redeeming
|
|
| 补偿的，弥补的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
24
deficits
|
|
| n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
25
savings
|
|
| n.存款，储蓄 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
26
solvency
|
|
| n.偿付能力，溶解力 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
27
tariff
|
|
| n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
28
runaway
|
|
| n.逃走的人，逃亡，亡命者；adj.逃亡的，逃走的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
29
annuity
|
|
| n.年金；养老金 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
30
margin
|
|
| n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
31
annuities
|
|
| n.养老金；年金( annuity的名词复数 )；（每年的）养老金；年金保险；年金保险投资 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
32
prospect
|
|
| n.前景，前途；景色，视野 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
33
moratorium
|
|
| n.(行动、活动的)暂停(期)，延期偿付 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
34
compulsory
|
|
| n.强制的，必修的；规定的，义务的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
35
dictated
|
|
| v.大声讲或读( dictate的过去式和过去分词 )；口授；支配；摆布 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
36
incompatible
|
|
| adj.不相容的，不协调的，不相配的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
37
disastrous
|
|
| adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
38
depreciating
|
|
| v.贬值，跌价，减价( depreciate的现在分词 )；贬低，蔑视，轻视 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
39
seizure
|
|
| n.没收；占有；抵押 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
40
alienation
|
|
| n.疏远；离间；异化 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
41
thereby
|
|
| adv.因此，从而 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
42
partially
|
|
| adv.部分地，从某些方面讲 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
43
considerably
|
|
| adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
44
inevitable
|
|
| adj.不可避免的，必然发生的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
45
embarrassments
|
|
| n.尴尬( embarrassment的名词复数 )；难堪；局促不安；令人难堪或耻辱的事 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
46
regularity
|
|
| n.规律性，规则性；匀称，整齐 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
47
muddle
|
|
| n.困惑，混浊状态；vt.使混乱，使糊涂，使惊呆；vi.胡乱应付，混乱 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
48
disintegration
|
|
| n.分散，解体 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
49
vassals
|
|
| n.奴仆( vassal的名词复数 )；（封建时代）诸侯；从属者；下属 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
50
lure
|
|
| n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
51
doom
|
|
| n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
52
immediate
|
|
| adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
53
severed
|
|
| v.切断，断绝( sever的过去式和过去分词 )；断，裂 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
54
permanently
|
|
| adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
55
favourable
|
|
| adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
56
hatred
|
|
| n.憎恶，憎恨，仇恨 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
57
foe
|
|
| n.敌人，仇敌 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
58
redoubtable
|
|
| adj.可敬的；可怕的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
59
interval
|
|
| n.间隔，间距；幕间休息，中场休息 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
60
determined
|
|
| adj.坚定的；有决心的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
61
ominous
|
|
| adj.不祥的，不吉的，预兆的，预示的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
62
yoke
|
|
| n.轭；支配；v.给...上轭，连接，使成配偶 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
63
chancellor
|
|
| n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
64
manifestation
|
|
| n.表现形式；表明；现象 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
65
intensity
|
|
| n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
66
lash
|
|
| v.系牢；鞭打；猛烈抨击；n.鞭打；眼睫毛 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
67
inevitably
|
|
| adv.不可避免地；必然发生地 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
68
vitality
|
|
| n.活力，生命力，效力 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
69
exhaustion
|
|
| n.耗尽枯竭，疲惫，筋疲力尽，竭尽，详尽无遗的论述 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
70
reactionary
|
|
| n.反动者，反动主义者；adj.反动的，反动主义的，反对改革的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
71
vengeance
|
|
| n.报复，报仇，复仇 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
72
irresistibly
|
|
| adv.无法抵抗地，不能自持地；极为诱惑人地 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
73
obedience
|
|
| n.服从，顺从 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
74
sinister
|
|
| adj.不吉利的，凶恶的，左边的 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
|
75
laborious
|
|
| adj.吃力的，努力的，不流畅 | |
参考例句： |
|
|
|
| 欢迎访问英文小说网 |