THE UNDERLYING ESSENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE of the European events at the beginning of the present century is the military movement of masses of European peoples from west to east, and again from east to west. The original movement was that from west to east. That the peoples of the west might be able to accomplish the military march upon Moscow, which they did accomplish, it was essential (1) that they should be combined in a military group of such a magnitude as to be able to withstand the resistance of the military group of the east; (2) that they should have renounced all their established traditions and habits; and (3) that they should have at their head a man able to justify in his own name and theirs the perpetration of all the deception, robbery, and murder that accompany that movement.

And to start from the French Revolution, that old group of insufficient magnitude is broken up; the old habits and traditions are destroyed; step by step a group is elaborated of new dimensions, new habits, and new traditions; and the man is prepared, who is to stand at the head of the coming movement, and to take upon himself the whole responsibility of what has to be done.

A man of no convictions, no habits, no traditions, no name, not even a Frenchman, by the strangest freaks of chance, as it seems, rises above the seething parties of France, and without attaching himself to any one of them, advances to a prominent position.

The incompetence of his colleagues, the weakness and insignificance of his opponents, the frankness of the deception, and the dazzling and self-confident limitation of the man raise him to the head of the army. The brilliant personal qualities of the soldiers of the Italian army, the disinclination to fight of his opponents, and his childish insolence and conceit gain him military glory. Innumerable so-called chance circumstances attend him everywhere. The disfavour into which he falls with the French Directorate turns to his advantage. His efforts to avoid the path ordained for him are unsuccessful; he is not received into the Russia army, and his projects in Turkey come to nothing.

During the wars in Italy he was several times on the verge of destruction, and was every time saved in an unexpected fashion. The Russian troops—the very troops which were able to demolish his glory—owing to various diplomatic considerations, do not enter Europe until he is there.

On his return from Italy, he finds the government in Paris in that process of dissolution in which all men who are in the government are inevitably effaced and nullified. And an escape for him from that perilous position offers itself in the shape of an aimless, groundless expedition to Africa. Again the same so-called chance circumstances accompany him. Malta, the impregnable, surrenders without a shot being fired; the most ill-considered measures are crowned with success. The enemy's fleet, which later on does not let one boat escape it, now lets a whole army elude it. In Africa a whole series of outrages is perpetrated on the almost unarmed inhabitants. And the men perpetrating these atrocities, and their leader most of all, persuade themselves that it is noble, it is glory, that it is like C?sar and Alexander of Macedon, and that it is fine.

That ideal of glory and of greatness, consisting in esteeming nothing one does wrong, and glorying in every crime, and ascribing to it an incomprehensible, supernatural value—that ideal, destined to guide this man and those connected with him, is elaborated on a grand scale in Africa. Whatever he does succeeds. The plague does not touch him. The cruelty of murdering his prisoners is not remembered against him. His childishly imprudent, groundless, and ignoble departure from Africa, abandoning his comrades in misfortune, does him good service; and again the enemy's fleet lets him twice slip through their hands. At the moment when, completely intoxicated by the success of his crimes and ready for the part he has to play, he arrives in Paris entirely without any plan, the disintegration of the Republican government, which might have involved him in its ruin a year before, has now reached its utmost limit, and his presence, a man independent of parties, can now only aid his elevation.

He has no sort of plan; he is afraid of everything; but all parties clutch at him and insist on his support.

He alone—with the ideal of glory and greatness he has acquired in Italy and Egypt, with his frenzy of self-adoration, with his insolence in crime, and his frankness in mendacity—he alone can justify what has to be accomplished.

He is needed for the place that awaits him, and so, almost apart from his own volition, and in spite of his uncertainty, the lack of plan, and the blunders he commits, he is drawn into a conspiracy that aims at seizing power; and that conspiracy is crowned with success.

He is dragged into the assembly of the rulers. In alarm he tries to flee, believing himself in danger; pretends to faint, says the most senseless things that should have been his ruin. But the rulers of France, once proud and discerning, now feeling their part is over, are even more panic-stricken than he, and fail to utter the words they should have pronounced to preserve their power and crush him.

Chance, millions of chances, give him power; and all men, as though in league together, combine to confirm that power. Chance circumstances create the characters of the rulers of France, who cringe before him; chance creates the character of Paul I., who acknowledges his authority; chance causes the plot against him to strengthen his power instead of shaking it. Chance throws the Duc d'Enghien into his hands and accidentally impels him to kill him, thereby convincing the crowd by the strongest of all arguments that he has the right on his side since he has the might. Chance brings it to pass that though he strains every nerve to fit out an expedition against England, which would unmistakably have led to his ruin, he never puts this project into execution, and happens to fall upon Mack with the Austrians, who surrender without a battle. Chance and genius give him the victory at Austerlitz; and by chance it comes to pass that all men, not only the French, but all the countries of Europe except England, which takes no part in the events that are to be accomplished, forget their old horror and aversion for his crimes, and now recognise the power he has gained by them, acknowledge the title he has bestowed upon himself, and accept his ideal of greatness and glory, which seems to every one something fine and rational.

As though practising and preparing themselves for the great movement before them, the forces of the west made several dashes—in 1805, 1806, 1807 and 1809—into the east, growing stronger and more numerous. In 1811 a group of men formed in France is joined by an enormous group from the peoples of Central Europe. As the numbers of the great mass increase, the power of justification of the man at the head of the movement gathers more and more force. During the ten years of the preparatory period preceding the great movement, this man forms relations with all the crowned heads of Europe. The sovereigns of the world, stripped bare by him, can oppose no rational ideal to the senseless Napoleonic ideal of glory and greatness. They vie with one another in demonstrating to him their insignificance. The King of Prussia sends his wife to sue for the good graces of the great man; the Emperor of Austria considers it a favour for this man to take the daughter of the Kaisers to his bed. The Pope, the guardian of the faith of the peoples, uses religion to aid the great man's elevation. Napoleon does not so much prepare himself for the part he is to play as all around him lead him on to take upon himself the responsibility of what is being done and is to be done. There is no act, no crime, no petty deceit which he would not commit, and which would not be at once represented on the lips of those about him as a great deed. The most suitable fête the Germans could think of in his honour was the celebration of Jena and Auerstadt. Not only is he great; his forefathers, his brothers, his step-children, and his brothers-in-law are great too. Everything is done to deprive him of the last glimmering of reason, and to prepare him for his terrible part. And when he is ready, his forces too are in readiness.

The invading army flows towards the east and reaches its final goal: Moscow. The ancient city is taken; the Russian army suffers greater losses than were ever suffered by the opposing armies in the previous wars from Austerlitz to Wagram. But all at once, instead of that chance and genius, which had so consistently led him hitherto by an uninterrupted series of successes to his destined goal, an immense number of chance circumstances occur of an opposite kind from the cold caught at Borodino to the spark that fired Moscow; and instead of genius there was shown a folly and baseness unexampled in history.

The invading army flees away, turns back and flees again; and all the chances now are consistently not for but against him.

Then there follows the opposing movement from east to west, with a remarkable similarity to the eastward movement from the west that had preceded it. There were similar tentative movements westward as had in 1805, 1807 and 1809 preceded the great eastward movement. There was the same cohesion together of all into one group of immense numbers; the same adherence of the peoples of Central Europe to the movement; the same hesitation midway, and the same increased velocity as the goal was approached.

Paris, the furthest goal, was reached. Napoleon's government and armies are shattered. Napoleon himself is of no further consequence; all his actions are obviously paltry and mean; but again inexplicable chance comes in. The allies detest Napoleon, in whom they see the cause of all their troubles. Stripped of his power and his might, convicted of frauds and villainies, he should have been seen by them as he had been ten years before, and was a year later—a brigand outside the pale of the law. But by some strange freak of chance no one sees it. His part is not yet played out. The man who ten years back, and one year later, was looked on as a miscreant outside the law, was sent by them to an island two days' journey from France, given to him as his domain, with guards and millions of money, as though to pay him for some service he had done.

本世纪（十九世纪）初叶，许多欧洲事件中的一个重大事实，那就是欧洲各国的民众自西向东、后来又自东向西的黩武活动。这种活动是从自西向东的进军开始的。

西方各国为了能够完成直捣莫斯科的好战行动，必须做到：一、组成一支足以对付东方军队的庞大军事集团；第二、摈弃一切旧有的传统和习惯；第三，要有一个首领，在进行其军事活动时，他既能为他们，也能为他自己的欺诈、抢劫和屠杀等行为进行辩护。

随着法国革命的爆发，旧的不够强大的集团逐渐崩溃，旧习惯和旧传统逐渐消亡，具有新规模的集团、新习惯和新传统逐步形成，一个领导未来运动并对即将发生的一切承担全部责任的人物应运而生。

一个没有信仰、没有习惯、没有传统、没有名望，甚至祖籍不是法国的人似乎凭借极其奇特的偶然机会，在使法国波动的各党派之间，不依附其中的任何党派，竟然出人头地，爬上了显赫的地位。

同僚的浅薄无知、对手的软弱而渺小、本人的撒谎本领、华而不实和刚愎自用使他成为军队的首脑。意大利士兵的优良素质、敌人的丧失斗志、孩子般的冲动鲁莽和盲目自信，使他获得了军事声望。他到处碰到的都是所谓的机会。他在法国执政者面前失宠反而造成他的有利形势。他企图改变自己的命运，但未成功；他投奔俄国军队，未被录用；要求去土耳其参军，也没有去成。在意大利战争期间，他几次处于死亡边缘，但每次都意外地得救。俄国军队，就是那后来使他身败名裂的俄国军队，由于外交方面的种种考虑，直到他离开欧洲时才进军欧洲①。

①此处指一七九九年俄将苏沃洛夫率兵远征意大利，而当时拿破仑正在埃及。

他从意大利回国，发现巴黎政府分崩离析，凡是参与这个政府的人，无不遭到清洗和毁灭。

正在此时，又竟无理智地莫明其妙地让他远征非洲，很自然地使他摆脱了危险的处境。这时，他又碰上了偶然的情形。无法攻破的马耳他岛竟不战而降，最轻率的军事命令却取得了胜利。事后连一条船也不准通过的敌方海军，当时却让拿破仑全军通过。在非洲，他对几乎手无寸铁的老百姓犯下一系列罪行。而犯下这些罪行的人，特别是他们的首领，竟使自己相信，认为这么干很好，很光荣，这才像古罗马的皇帝凯撒和马其顿君王亚历山大。

那种光荣与伟大的理想是：拿破仑及其手下之辈不仅不认为自己的行为恶劣，而且还为自己犯下的罪行自豪，并赋予它莫明其妙的超自然意义——正是这种必能指导这个人及其随行者的理想在非洲获得充分的发挥。他不论做什么都是马到成功。连瘟疫也没有传染给他。屠杀俘虏的暴行没有归咎于他。他像孩子般地毫无道理地也不光彩地撒下患难中的伙伴，若无其事地又从非洲溜走，并且连这种举动也算成他的功绩，而敌人的海军又两次放他通行。他陶醉于自己侥幸取得成功的罪行，并准备继续演出自己的闹剧，他又茫无目的地闯到巴黎。这时一年前可能置他于死地的共和国政府更加腐朽透顶，于是他这个超然于各党派之外的新人自然就身价百倍。

他没有任何计划，他什么都怕，但各党派都拉拢他，要求他参加。

他在意大利和埃及培植了光荣和伟大的理想，他疯狂地自我崇拜，他大胆地犯下罪行，他毫无顾忌地撒谎，只有他这样的人才能为所发生的事辩护。

那个需要他的位置在等待他，因此，几乎不是出于他本人的意愿，尽管他犹豫不决，缺乏计划，屡犯错误，但他还是被拉去参与以攫取权力为目的的阴谋活动，而且取得了成功。

他被拉去出席政府会议。他惊慌失措想要逃走，认为自己末日已到；他假装晕倒，胡言乱语，这些毫无意味的话本来可能送掉他的性命。但是，原来那么精明老练、骄傲自大的法国统治者，这时觉得他们的戏现在已经演完，显得比他更加狼狈，他们说起话来，颠三倒四，语无伦次，结果既不能保住政权，也不能将拿破仑置之于死地。

机遇，成千上万个机遇，赐给他权力，而所有的人像是商量好了似的，都协助他确立这个权力。机遇使当时的法国统治者情愿服从他；机遇使保罗一世情愿承认他的权力；机遇使反对他的阴谋不仅对他无害，反而巩固了他的权力。机遇使昂季安公爵落入他的手中，并且出乎意外地迫使他杀害公爵。所有这一切比任何其他手段都更有力地使群众信服他有权有势。机遇使他把全力远征英国的意图（远征英国肯定会使他毁灭，而且这个意图永远无法实现）突然改为进攻马克和他率领的不战而降的奥地利军队。机遇和天才给了他在奥斯特利茨的胜利。由于偶然所有的人，不仅法国人，而且全体欧洲人（仅未参与当时事件的英国人除外），尽管原先对他的罪行怀有恐惧和厌恶，现在也承认了他的权力，承认了他自封的称号，承认了他那伟大与光荣的理想，并认为这种理想是美好和合理的。

西方列强在一八○五、一八○六、一八○七、一八○九年几次东进，不断地增强和壮大，好像是在估量一下自己的实力，以便对行将到来的运动作好准备。一八一一年法国组成的联队同中欧各国的人丁汇合成一个庞大的集团。随着队伍的不断壮大，替军事领袖制造舆论、进行辩护的势力也不断增强。在准备大规模运动前的十年中，这位领袖人物纠集了欧洲所有头戴王冠的人。世界各国的统治者原形毕露，无力对抗拿破仑的光荣与伟大的理想。他们一个接着一个在他面前卑躬屈膝。普鲁士国王派他的妻子向这个伟人阿谀谄媚；奥地利皇帝认为，这位大人物把公主请进床帏是莫大的恩宠；教皇，各国人民的神圣保护者利用宗教来抬高这位伟人的身价。与其说拿破仑自己给自己准备好扮演的角色，不如说周围的人让他承担正在发生和将要发生事件的全部责任。他所干的每件事，每桩罪行和小小的诈骗行为，都立刻被他周围的人说成是伟大的楷模。日耳曼人为他想出的最好庆典是耶拿和奥尔施泰特的庆祝活动，不仅他是个伟人，连他的祖先、兄弟、养子和妹夫都很伟大。一切事情的发生都要为了使他丧失最后一点理性，准备让他去扮演最可怕的角色。等他准备好了，兵力也准备好了。

侵略军的矛头指向东方，并到达了最后的目的地—莫斯科。京城沦陷，俄军的损失比敌军先前从奥斯特利茨到瓦格拉木历次战争所受的损失还惨重。但是突然使他从一系列胜利走向既定目标的偶然和天才消失了，出现了无数相反的偶然——从他在波罗底诺着凉伤风到天气严寒以及焚烧莫斯科之火。同时，天才也不见了，代之以史无前例的愚蠢和卑劣。

侵略军逃跑了，不停地往回跑，一逃再逃，如今一切机会和偶然都不是帮助他而是同他作对了。

自东向西的一次逆向的军事行动现在发动了，它同原来自西向东的运动十分相似。在大规模行动发生之前，一八○五年、一八○七年、直到一八○九年也有自东向西的同样行动的尝试，也同样组成了庞大的军事集团；也有中欧各国的参与，也有中途动摇，也是越接近目的地行动的速度越快。

巴黎——最后的目的地达到了。拿破仑的政府和军队垮台了。拿破仑本人也就没有什么价值了，他的一切行动都显得可怜和可惜。但是，一个莫明其妙的偶然机会又出现了。盟国仇恨拿破仑，认为他是他们遭受灾难的祸根。拿破仑被剥夺了权力，他的罪恶和奸诈，受到无情的揭露，人们理应像十年前和一年后那样，看出他是个无法无天的强盗。然而，由于某种奇怪的偶然机会，谁也没有看出这一点。他的戏还没有演完。这个十年前和一年后被认为无法无天的强盗，被遣送到离法国两天航程的小岛上，并让他管辖小岛，又给了他卫队，不知为什么还送给他几百万金钱。