He himself had been but little pecked at. The heavy guns were trained onDr. Seldon himself. Hari Seldon, however, sat there unperturbed. To Gaal,he was the only spot of stability remaining in the world.
The audience was small and drawn1 exclusively from among the Barons2 of theEmpire. Press and public were excluded and it was doubtful that anysignificant number of outsiders even knew that a trial of Seldon was beingconducted. The atmosphere was one of unrelieved hostility3 toward thedefendants.
Five of the Commission of Public Safety sat behind the raised desk. Theywore scarlet4 and gold uniforms and the shining, close-fitting plastic capsthat were the sign of their judicial5 function. In the center was the ChiefCommissioner Linge Chen. Gaal had never before seen so great a Lord and hewatched him with fascination7. Chen, throughout the trial, rarely said aword. He made it quite clear that much speech was beneath his dignity.
The Commission's Advocate consulted his notes and the examinationcontinued, with Seldon still on the stand:
Q. Let us see, Dr. Seldon. How many men are now engaged in the project ofwhich you are head?
A. Fifty mathematicians9.
Q. Including Dr. Gaal Dornick?
A. Dr. Dornick is the fifty-first,Q. Oh, we have fifty-one then? Search your memory, Dr. Seldon. Perhapsthere are fifty-two or fifty-three? Or perhaps even more?
A. Dr. Dornick has not yet formally joined my organization. When he does,the membership will be fifty-one. It is now fifty, as I have said.
Q. Not perhaps nearly a hundred thousand?
A. Mathematicians? No.
Q. I did not say mathematicians. Are there a hundred thousand in allcapacities?
A. In all capacities, your figure may be correct.
Q. May be? I say it is. I say that the men in your project numberninety-eight thousand, five hundred and seventy-two.
A. I believe you are counting women and children.
Q. (raising his voice) Ninety eight thousand five hundred and seventy-twoindividuals is the intent of my statement. There is no need to quibble.
A. I accept the figures.
Q. (referring to his notes) Let us drop that for the moment, then, and takeup another matter which we have already discussed at some length. Would yourepeat, Dr. Seldon, your thoughts concerning the future of Trantor?
A. I have said, and I say again, that Trantor will lie in ruins within thenext three centuries.
Q. You do not consider your statement a disloyal one?
A. No, sir. Scientific truth is beyond loyalty and disloyalty.
Q. You are sure that your statement represents scientific truth?
A. I am.
Q. On what basis?
A. On the basis of the mathematics of psychohistory.
Q. Can you prove that this mathematics is valid'?
A. Only to another mathematician8.
Q. (with a smile) Your claim then is that your truth is of so esoteric anature that it is beyond the understanding of a plain man. It seems to methat truth should be clearer than that, less mysterious, more open to themind.
A. It presents no difficulties to some minds. The physics of energytransfer, which we know as thermodynamics, has been clear and true throughall the history of man since the mythical10 ages, yet there may be peoplepresent who would find it impossible to design a power engine. People ofhigh intelligence, too. I doubt if the learned Commissioners11?
At this point, one of the Commissioners leaned toward the Advocate. Hiswords were not heard but the hissing of the voice carried a certainasperity. The Advocate flushed and interrupted Seldon.
Q. We are not here to listen to speeches, Dr. Seldon. Let us assume thatyou have made your point. Let me suggest to you that your predictions ofdisaster might be intended to destroy public confidence in the ImperialGovernment for purposes of your own.
A. That is not so.
Q. Let me suggest that you intend to claim that a period of time precedingthe so-called ruin of Trantor will be filled with unrest of various types.
A. That is correct.
Q. And that by the mere12 prediction thereof, you hope to bring it about, andto have then an army of a hundred thousand available.
A. In the first place, that is not so. And if it were, investigation13 willshow you that barely ten thousand are men of military age, and none ofthese has training in arms.
Q. Are you acting14 as an agent for another?
A. I am not in the pay of any man, Mr. Advocate.
Q. You are entirely disinterested15? You are serving science?
A. I am.
Q. Then let us see how. Can the future be changed, Dr. Seldon?
A. Obviously. This courtroom may explode in the next few hours, or it maynot. If it did, the future would undoubtedly16 be changed in some minorrespects.
Q. You quibble, Dr. Seldon. Can the overall history of the human race bechanged?
A. Yes.
Q. Easily?
A. No. With great difficulty.
Q. Why?
A. The psychohistoric trend of a planet-full of people contains a hugeinertia. To be changed it must be met with something possessing a similarinertia. Either as many people must be concerned, or if the number ofpeople be relatively17 small, enormous time for change must be allowed. Doyou understand?
Q. I think I do. Trantor need not be ruined, if a great many people decideto act so that it will not.
A. That is right.
Q. As many as a hundred thousand people?
A. No, sir. That is far too few.
Q. You are sure?
A. Consider that Trantor has a population of over forty billions. Considerfurther that the trend leading to ruin does not belong to Trantor alone butto the Empire as a whole and the Empire contains nearly a quintillion humanbeings.
Q. I see. Then perhaps a hundred thousand people can change the trend, ifthey and their descendants labor for three hundred years.
A. I'm afraid not. Three hundred years is too short a time.
Q. Ah! In that case, Dr. Seldon, we are left with this deduction18 to be madefrom your statements. You have gathered one hundred thousand people withinthe confines of your project. These are insufficient19 to change the historyof Trantor within three hundred years. In other words, they cannot preventthe destruction of Trantor no matter what they do.
A. You are unfortunately correct.
Q. And on the other hand, your hundred thousand are intended for no illegalpurpose.
A. Exactly.
Q. (slowly and with satisfaction) In that case, Dr. Seldon? Now attend,sir, most carefully, for we want a considered answer. What is the purposeof your hundred thousand?
The Advocate's voice had grown strident. He had sprung his trap; backedSeldon into a comer; driven him astutely20 from any possibility of answering.
There was a rising buzz of conversation at that which swept the ranks ofthe peers in the audience and invaded even the row of Commissioners. Theyswayed toward one another in their scarlet and gold, only the Chiefremaining uncorrupted.
Hari Seldon remained unmoved. He waited for the babble21 to evaporate.
A. To minimize the effects of that destruction.
Q. And exactly what do you mean by that?
A. The explanation is simple. The coming destruction of Trantor is not anevent in itself, isolated22 in the scheme of human development. It will bethe climax23 to an intricate drama which was begun centuries ago and which isaccelerating in pace continuously. I refer, gentlemen, to the developingdecline and fall of the Galactic Empire.
The buzz now became a dull roar. The Advocate, unheeded, was yelling, "Youare openly declaring that? and stopped because the cries of "Treason" fromthe audience showed that the point had been made without any hammering.
Slowly, the Chief Commissioner6 raised his gavel once and let it drop. Thesound was that of a mellow24 gong. When the reverberations ceased, the gabbleof the audience also did. The Advocate took a deep breath.
Q. (theatrically) Do you realize, Dr. Seldon, that you are speaking of anEmpire that has stood for twelve thousand years, through all thevicissitudes of the generations, and which has behind it the good wishesand love of a quadrillion human beings?
A. I am aware both of the present status and the past history of theEmpire. Without disrespect, I must claim a far better knowledge of it thanany in this room.
Q. And you predict its ruin?
A. It is a prediction which is made by mathematics. I pass no moraljudgements. Personally, I regret the prospect25. Even if the Empire wereadmitted to be a bad thing (an admission I do not make), the state ofanarchy which would follow its fall would be worse. It is that state ofanarchy which my project is pledged to fight. The fall of Empire,gentlemen, is a massive thing, however, and not easily fought. It isdictated by a rising bureaucracy, a receding initiative, a freezing ofcaste, a damming of curiosity ?a hundred other factors. It has been goingon, as I have said, for centuries, and it is too majestic and massive amovement to stop.
Q. Is it not obvious to anyone that the Empire is as strong as it ever was?
A. The appearance of strength is all about you. It would seem to lastforever. However, Mr. Advocate, the rotten tree-trunk, until the verymoment when the storm-blast breaks it in two, has all the appearance ofmight it ever had. The storm-blast whistles through the branches of theEmpire even now. Listen with the ears of psychohistory, and you will hearthe creaking.
Q. (uncertainly) We are not here, Dr. Seldon, to lis?
A. (firmly) The Empire will vanish and all its good with it. Itsaccumulated knowledge will decay and the order it has imposed will vanish.
Interstellar wars will be endless; interstellar trade will decay;population will decline; worlds will lose touch with the main body of theGalaxy. 朅nd so matters will remain.
Q. (a small voice in the middle of a vast silence) Forever?
A. Psychohistory, which can predict the fall, can make statementsconcerning the succeeding dark ages. The Empire, gentlemen, as has justbeen said, has stood twelve thousand years. The dark ages to come willendure not twelve, but thirty thousand years. A Second Empire will rise,but between it and our civilization will be one thousand generations ofsuffering humanity. We must fight that.
Q. (recovering somewhat) You contradict yourself. You said earlier that youcould not prevent the destruction of Trantor; hence, presumably, the fall;杢he so-called fall of the Empire.
A. I do not say now that we can prevent the fall. But it is not yet toolate to shorten the interregnum which will follow. It is possible,gentlemen, to reduce the duration of anarchy26 to a single millennium28, if mygroup is allowed to act now. We are at a delicate moment in history. Thehuge, onrushing mass of events must be deflected29 just a little, ?just alittle ?It cannot be much, but it may be enough to remove twenty-ninethousand years of misery30 from human history.
Q. How do you propose to do this?
A. By saving the knowledge of the race. The sum of human knowing is beyondany one man; any thousand men. With the destruction of our social fabric,science will be broken into a million pieces. Individuals will know much ofexceedingly tiny facets31 of what there is to know. They will be helpless anduseless by themselves. The bits of lore32, meaningless, will not be passedon. They will be lost through the generations. But, if we now prepare agiant summary of all knowledge, it will never be lost. Coming generationswill build on it, and will not have to rediscover it for themselves. Onemillennium will do the work of thirty thousand.
Q. All thisA. All my project; my thirty thousand men with their wives and children,are devoting themselves to the preparation of an "Encyclopedia33 Galactica."They will not complete it in their lifetimes. I will not even live to seeit fairly begun. But by the time Trantor falls, it will be complete andcopies will exist in every major library in the Galaxy27.
The Chief Commissioner's gavel rose and fell. Hari Seldon left the standand quietly took his seat next to Gaal.
He smiled and said, "How did you like the show?"Gaal said, "You stole it. But what will happen now?""They'll adjourn34 the trial and try to come to a private agreement with me.""How do you know?"Seldon said, "I'll be honest. I don't know. It depends on the ChiefCommissioner. I have studied him for years. I have tried to analyze35 hisworkings, but you know how risky36 it is to introduce the vagaries of anindividual in the psychohistoric equations. Yet I have hopes."
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1
drawn
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| v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的 | |
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barons
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| 男爵( baron的名词复数 )； 巨头； 大王； 大亨 | |
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hostility
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| n.敌对，敌意；抵制［pl.］交战，战争 | |
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scarlet
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| n.深红色，绯红色，红衣；adj.绯红色的 | |
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judicial
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| adj.司法的，法庭的，审判的，明断的，公正的 | |
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commissioner
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| n.（政府厅、局、处等部门）专员，长官，委员 | |
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fascination
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| n.令人着迷的事物，魅力，迷恋 | |
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mathematician
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| n.数学家 | |
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mathematicians
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| 数学家( mathematician的名词复数 ) | |
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mythical
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| adj.神话的；虚构的；想像的 | |
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commissioners
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| n.专员( commissioner的名词复数 )；长官；委员；政府部门的长官 | |
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mere
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| adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过 | |
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investigation
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| n.调查，调查研究 | |
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acting
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| n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的 | |
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disinterested
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| adj.不关心的，不感兴趣的 | |
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undoubtedly
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| adv.确实地，无疑地 | |
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relatively
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| adv.比较...地，相对地 | |
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deduction
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| n.减除，扣除，减除额；推论，推理，演绎 | |
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insufficient
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| adj.(for，of)不足的，不够的 | |
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astutely
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| adv.敏锐地；精明地；敏捷地；伶俐地 | |
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babble
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| v.含糊不清地说，胡言乱语地说，儿语 | |
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isolated
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| adj.与世隔绝的 | |
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climax
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| n.顶点；高潮；v.(使)达到顶点 | |
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mellow
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| adj.柔和的；熟透的；v.变柔和；(使)成熟 | |
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prospect
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| n.前景，前途；景色，视野 | |
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anarchy
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| n.无政府状态；社会秩序混乱，无秩序 | |
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galaxy
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| n.星系；银河系；一群(杰出或著名的人物) | |
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millennium
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| n.一千年，千禧年；太平盛世 | |
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deflected
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| 偏离的 | |
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misery
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| n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦 | |
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facets
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| n.（宝石或首饰的）小平面( facet的名词复数 )；（事物的）面；方面 | |
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lore
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| n.传说；学问，经验，知识 | |
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encyclopedia
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| n.百科全书 | |
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adjourn
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| v.（使）休会，（使）休庭 | |
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analyze
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| vt.分析，解析 (=analyse) | |
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risky
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| adj.有风险的，冒险的 | |
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