In old times it was the Fates, superior even to Zeus, who decreed wars. In later days wars were regarded as the will of God. And to-day professional interpreters of events are as ready as ever with explanations why this war was, in the nature of things, unavoidable. Whether the prevailing9 priesthood wears white robes and fillets, or rich vestments, or {37} cassocks and Geneva bands, or the severer modern garb10 of the professor or politician, it appears to be equally prone11 to dogmatic blasphemy12. There is no proof that this war was pre-ordained either by a Christian13 God or by the laws of Pagan Nature.
WAS WAR INEVITABLE?
One may doubt if any war is inevitable. If statesmen can gain time the chances are that they will gain peace. This was the view of public opinion throughout the British Empire down to July 1914. It was in a special sense the view of the Liberal party; and their view was endorsed14, if not by the whole body of unionists, at any rate by their leader, in terms which admitted of no misunderstanding.[1] It is also the point of view from which this book is written.... This war was not inevitable; it could have been avoided, but on one condition—if England had been prepared.
England was not prepared either morally or materially. Her rulers had left her in the dark as to the dangers which surrounded her. They had neglected to make clear to her—probably even to themselves—the essential principles of British policy, and the sacrifices which it entailed15. They had failed to provide armaments to correspond with this policy. When the crisis arose their hands were tied. They had to sit down hurriedly, and decipher their policy, and find out what it meant. Still more hurriedly they had to get it approved, not merely by their fellow-countrymen, but by their own colleagues—a work, if rumour16[2] speaks truly, of {38} considerable difficulty. Then they found that one of the main supports was wanting; and they had to set to work frantically17 to make an army adequate to their needs.
But it was too late. By this time their policy had fallen about their ears in ruins. For their policy was the neutrality of Belgium, and that was already violated. Their policy was the defence of France, and invasion had begun. Their policy was peace, and peace was broken. The nation which would enjoy peace must be strong enough to enforce peace.
The moods of nations pass like clouds, only more slowly. They bank up filled with menace; we look again and are surprised to find that they have melted away as silently and swiftly as they came. One does not need to be very old to recall various wars, deemed at one time or another to be inevitable, which never occurred. In the 'sixties' war with the second Empire was judged to be inevitable; and along our coasts dismantled18 forts remain to this day as monuments of our fathers' firm belief in the imminence19 of an invasion. In the 'seventies,' and indeed until we had entered the present century, war with Russia was regarded as inevitable by a large number of well-informed people; and for a part of this period war with the French Republic was judged to be no less so. Fortune on the whole was favourable20. Circumstances changed. The sense of a common danger healed old antagonisms21. Causes of chronic22 irritation23 disappeared of themselves, or were removed by diplomatic surgery. And with the disappearance24 of these inflammatory centres, misunderstandings, prejudices, and suspicions began to vanish also. {39} Gradually it became clear, that what had been mistaken on both sides for destiny was nothing more inexorable than a fit of temper, or a conflict of business interests not incapable25 of adjustment. And in a sense the German menace was less formidable than any of these others, for the reason that it was a fit of temper on one side only—a fit of temper, or megalomania. We became fully26 conscious of the German mood only after the end of the South African War, when its persistence27 showed clearly that it arose, not from any sympathy with the Dutch, but from some internal cause. When this cause was explained to us it seemed so inadequate28, so absurd, so unreal, so contrary to the facts, that only a small fraction of our nation ever succeeded in believing that it actually existed. We had been taught by Carlyle, that while the verities29 draw immortal30 life from the facts to which they correspond, the falsities have but a phenomenal existence, and a brief influence over the minds of men. Consequently the greater part of the British people troubled their heads very little about this matter, never thought things would come to a crisis, or lead to serious mischief31; but trusted always that, in due time, the ridiculous illusions of our neighbours would vanish and die of their own inanity32.
GERMAN JEALOUSY33
We listened with an equal wonder and weariness to German complaints that we were jealous of her trade and bent34 on strangling it; that we grudged35 her colonial expansion, and were intriguing36 all the world over to prevent it; that we had isolated37 her and ringed her round with hostile alliances. We knew that these notions were all entirely38 false. We knew that, so far from hampering39 German commerce, {40} our Free Trade system in the United Kingdom, in the Dependencies, and in the Indian Empire had fostered it and helped its rapid and brilliant success more than any other external factor.
For fully thirty years from 1870—during which period what remained of the uncivilised portions of the world was divided up, during which period also Germany was the most powerful nation in Europe, and could have had anything she wanted of these new territories almost for the asking—Bismarck and the statesmen of his school, engrossed40 mainly in the European situation, set little store by colonies, thought of them rather as expensive and dangerous vanities, and abstained41 deliberately from taking an energetic part in the scramble42. We knew, that in Africa and the East, Germany had nevertheless obtained considerable possessions, and that it was, primarily her own fault that she had not obtained more. We assumed, no doubt very foolishly, that she must ultimately become aware of her absurdity43 in blaming us for her own neglect. We forgot human nature, and the apologue of the drunkard who cursed the lamp-post for its clumsiness in getting in his way.
The British people knew that Germany was talking nonsense; but unfortunately they never fully realised that she was sincere, and meant all the things she said. They thought she only half believed in her complaints, as a man is apt to do when ill-temper upsets his equanimity44. They were confident that in the end the falsities would perish and the verities remain, and that in the fulness of time the two nations would become friends.
As to this last the British people probably judged correctly; but they entirely overlooked the fact, {41} that if truth was to be given a chance of prevailing in the end, it was important to provide against mischief which might very easily occur in the meantime. Nor did their rulers, whose duty it was, ever warn them seriously of this necessity.
DANGERS OF ILL-TEMPER
When a man works himself up into a rage and proceeds to flourish a loaded revolver, something more is necessary for the security of the bystanders than the knowledge that his ill-temper does not rest upon a reasonable basis. War was not inevitable, certainly; but until the mood of Germany changed, it was exceedingly likely to occur unless the odds45 against the aggressor were made too formidable for him to face. None of the governments, however, which have controlled our national destinies since 1900, ever developed sufficient energy to realise the position of affairs, or ever mustered46 up courage to tell the people clearly what the risks were, to state the amount of the premium47 which was required to cover the risks, and to insist upon the immediate48 duty of the sacrifice which imperial security inexorably demanded.
[1] "I hear it also constantly said—there is no use shutting our eyes or ears to obvious facts—that owing to divergent interests, war some day or other between this country and Germany is inevitable. I never believe in these inevitable wars."—Mr. Bonar Law in England and Germany.
[2] Rumour finds confirmation49 in the White Paper; also in an interview with Mr. Lloyd George, reported in Pearson's Magazine, March 1915, p. 265, col. ii.
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1
drawn
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| v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的 | |
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conflagration
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| n.建筑物或森林大火 | |
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calamities
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| n.灾祸，灾难( calamity的名词复数 )；不幸之事 | |
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deliberately
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| adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地 | |
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averted
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| 防止，避免( avert的过去式和过去分词 )； 转移 | |
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judgment
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| n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见 | |
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inevitable
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| adj.不可避免的，必然发生的 | |
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pretensions
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| 自称( pretension的名词复数 )； 自命不凡； 要求； 权力 | |
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prevailing
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| adj.盛行的；占优势的；主要的 | |
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garb
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| n.服装，装束 | |
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prone
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| adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的 | |
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blasphemy
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| n.亵渎，渎神 | |
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Christian
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| adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒 | |
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endorsed
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| vt.& vi.endorse的过去式或过去分词形式v.赞同( endorse的过去式和过去分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品 | |
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entailed
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| 使…成为必要( entail的过去式和过去分词 )； 需要； 限定继承； 使必需 | |
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rumour
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| n.谣言，谣传，传闻 | |
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frantically
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| ad.发狂地, 发疯地 | |
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18
dismantled
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| 拆开( dismantle的过去式和过去分词 )； 拆卸； 废除； 取消 | |
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imminence
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| n.急迫，危急 | |
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favourable
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| adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的 | |
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antagonisms
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| 对抗，敌对( antagonism的名词复数 ) | |
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chronic
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| adj.(疾病)长期未愈的，慢性的；极坏的 | |
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irritation
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| n.激怒，恼怒，生气 | |
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disappearance
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| n.消失，消散，失踪 | |
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incapable
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| adj.无能力的，不能做某事的 | |
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fully
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| adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地 | |
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persistence
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| n.坚持，持续，存留 | |
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inadequate
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| adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的 | |
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verities
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| n.真实( verity的名词复数 )；事实；真理；真实的陈述 | |
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immortal
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| adj.不朽的；永生的，不死的；神的 | |
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mischief
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| n.损害，伤害，危害；恶作剧，捣蛋，胡闹 | |
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32
inanity
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| n.无意义，无聊 | |
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33
jealousy
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| n.妒忌，嫉妒，猜忌 | |
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34
bent
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| n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的 | |
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35
grudged
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| 怀恨（grudge的过去式与过去分词形式） | |
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intriguing
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| adj.有趣的；迷人的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的现在分词)；激起…的好奇心 | |
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isolated
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| adj.与世隔绝的 | |
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entirely
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| ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地 | |
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hampering
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| 妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的现在分词 ) | |
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40
engrossed
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| adj.全神贯注的 | |
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41
abstained
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| v.戒（尤指酒），戒除( abstain的过去式和过去分词 )；弃权（不投票） | |
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42
scramble
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| v.爬行，攀爬，杂乱蔓延，碎片，片段，废料 | |
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43
absurdity
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| n.荒谬，愚蠢；谬论 | |
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44
equanimity
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| n.沉着，镇定 | |
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45
odds
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| n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别 | |
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46
mustered
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| v.集合，召集，集结（尤指部队）( muster的过去式和过去分词 )；（自他人处）搜集某事物；聚集；激发 | |
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47
premium
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| n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的 | |
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48
immediate
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| adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的 | |
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49
confirmation
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| n.证实，确认，批准 | |
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