The horror of the Great War seems to have unhinged the European mind. Nations do not think normally. The blood pressure is still very high. The excitement over the Ruhr does not tend to improve it. When some of the articles written and speeches delivered to-day come to be read by the diligent8 historian a generation hence, he will recognise there the ravings of a continent whose mental equilibrium9 has been upset by a great shock. The real issue involved in all this struggle is a comparatively simple one. How much can Germany pay and in what way can she pay? America, Britain, Italy and Germany are all agreed that the only way to settle that question is to appoint competent experts to investigate and report upon it. The Pope also has blessed this reasonable suggestion. France, on the contrary, says it is a question to be determined10 by guns and generals—both equally well fitted for that task. Germany must present her accounts to the mitrailleuse and argue her case before the soixante-quinze. It is a mad world.
Every one is interested in one question—or [Pg 215]perhaps two. How will it all end and how soon is that end coming? Although I have nothing to fear from recalling the predictions of my early articles on this subject, I hesitate to hazard a fresh forecast. But one may review the possibilities and note the drift of the whirling currents. In assessing the chances, you must begin with some knowledge of the man who will decide the event. M. Poincaré is possessed11 of undoubted ability and patriotism12, but he is also a man who lives in a world of prejudices so dense13 that they obscure facts. You have but to turn to one statement in his last note where he says the conferences and ultimatums14 of the past four years secured nothing from Germany. What are the facts? During the three and a half years that preceded the Ruhr invasion, Germany paid to the Allies in cash and in kind over ten milliards of gold marks,—￡500,000,000 in sterling15, 2,000,000,000 in dollars—a considerable effort for a country which had but lately emerged out of the most exhausting of wars and whose foreign trade was down sixty to seventy per cent. You might imagine that a man who had taken the grave step of ordering armies to invade a neighbour's territories would also have taken the trouble to ascertain16 the elementary facts[Pg 216] of his case. Part of this gigantic sum went to pay for Armies of Occupation; part for Reparations, but it all came out of German assets. Will the next three and a half years bring anything approximating that figure to the Allied17 coffers?
It is a safe statement to make that no one in charge of the French movements anticipated a resistance approaching in its stubbornness to that which they have encountered. The friendly Press, both in France and in England, foretold18 a speedy collapse19 of the German opposition20, and on this assumption all the French plans were based. During the first days of the occupation an Englishman asked a French officer how long he thought it would take. The answer is indicative of the spirit in which the venture started: "Optimists21 think it will take a fortnight," he said; "pessimists22 think it may take three weeks." A reference to the January telegrams from Paris and Düsseldorf will show that this officer accurately23 expressed the general sentiment of those who were responsible for the Ruhr invasion. Soldiers estimate the chances of resistance in terms of material and trained men, and statesmen too often build their hopes on the same shallow foundation. They never allow for the [Pg 217]indomitable reserves of the human heart, which do not figure in Army Lists or Statesmen's Annuals. The resistance of Paris in 1870 was as confounding to Bismarck as the stubbornness of the Ruhr miners is to Poincaré to-day. The last regular army had been destroyed, all docketed food stores exhausted24, and still the struggle of the devoted25 citizens went on for months. There were few men in England who thought the Boer peasants could continue their resistance for more than three months after our armies reached South Africa. The three months ran into three years and only then capitulated on honourable26 terms. The Northern States of America never contemplated27 the possibility of a five years' struggle with a blockaded, starved and overwhelmed Confederacy. The War of 1914-18 is littered with miscalculations attributable to the blind refusal of rulers and their advisers28 to recognise the moral element as a factor in the reckoning. The Ruhr tragedy is not the first, nor indeed may it be the last, to be initiated29 by facile memoranda30 framed by General Staffs and civilian31 functionaries32, drawing their inspiration from pigeonholes33.
Whatever may transpire34 in the Ruhr it is already clear that the estimates of military men, of [Pg 218]transport officials, of intelligence departments, and of presiding Ministers, have been hopelessly falsified. Many more soldiers have been sent into the Ruhr than had been thought necessary: a great deal less coal has come out of the Ruhr than had been confidently expected. There are already as many Frenchmen in the Ruhr as Napoleon commanded at Waterloo; and they have succeeded in sending across the frontier in six months only as much coal as the Germans delivered in one month during the period of "default" which provoked the invasion. Desperate efforts have been made at great cost to increase the yield with a view to satisfying French and foreign opinion that resistance is gradually breaking down. Rubbish is shovelled35 into wagons36 in order anyhow to swell37 the quota38. Coal is seized anywhere, even in the streets. And Monsieur Trocquer, the bluff39 and genial40 Breton in charge of the transport arrangements, breezily challenges all the critics to look at the mounting pyramids of his dustcart collection and rejoice with him in the triumph of French organisation41 under his control. Alas42, the Celtic fire of Monsieur Trocquer, even when fed by the sweepings43 of the Ruhr, cannot keep going the blast furnaces of Lorraine! So we find [Pg 219]disappointment and discontent amongst the forge-masters of France.
But there is a limit to human endurance. Either France or Germany must give way in the end. Which will it be, and when will it come—and how? In answering these questions one must remember that for France the honour of her flag is involved in success. Failure would irretrievably damage her prestige. Every Frenchman knows that. That is why French statesmen who disapprove44 of the invasion support the Government in all their proposals for bringing it to a successful end. And here France has a legitimate45 complaint against her Allies. It is useless for Italy now to counsel wisdom. Signor Mussolini was present at the "hush46 Conference" which sanctioned the invasion. He fixed47 the price of assent48 in coal tonnage. That price has been regularly paid. Belgium is now becoming scared at the swelling49 magnitude of the venture. But she committed her own honour as well as that of France to carrying it through. I regret to think that Britain is not free from responsibility in the matter. It is true that her representatives disapproved50 of the enterprise, but not on grounds of right or justice. On the contrary, whilst [Pg 220]expressing grave doubt as to the ultimate success of the invasion they wished the French Government well in the undertaking51 on which they were about to embark52. Not one of the Allies is in a position with a clean conscience to urge France to haul down her flag. There is only one course which could be urged on the French Government as being consistent with French honour, and that is the reference of the dispute to the League of Nations. Such a reference would be an enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles. That suggestion the British Government have refused to press on France. The struggle must, therefore, proceed to its destined53 end.
It may be assumed that the British Government will not intervene effectively. How about the ministerial declarations? Surely these strong words must be followed by strong action! Those who rely on that inference know nothing of the men who use the words or of the forces upon which they depend for their ministerial existence. It is true that some weeks ago Mr. Snodgrass took off his coat and proclaimed cryptically54, but fearlessly, that unless peace was restored on his terms something would happen. The French Government, unperturbed, replied that they meant to persist in their[Pg 221] course. So last week Mr. Snodgrass takes off his waistcoat. But do not be alarmed: there will be no blows: his friends will hold him back. Meanwhile, Mr. Winkle has left for Paris in order to lunch with one of the combatants. Next week he will be followed by Mr. Pickwick, who will call on another, and the week after Mr. Tupman proposes to pay another propitiatory55 visit. It will be an incalculable advantage to M. Poincaré that they each represent a different and conflicting point of view. The French have accurately taken the measure of the mind and muscle of those who indulge in these spectacular exhibitions of ball punching in Westminster with cakes and ale at Rambouillet. We may therefore assume that whatever conversations take place at these general gatherings56 or ensue from them, the French will not be talked out of the Ruhr.
From the emphatic57 declarations made by the head of the French Government it is gathered that France will insist at all costs on enforcing her will. She has put forward two demands. The first is that Germany shall abandon passive resistance as an essential preliminary to negotiation58. The second is that her forces should remain in the Ruhr until the last payment is made. Will the German [Pg 222]Government accept these conditions? A settlement on these terms is only possible on two assumptions. The first is that a German Government can be found strong enough to accept them and to survive their acceptance. The second is that there is a French Government wise enough to give a liberal interpretation59 to these demands. The first depends to a large extent on the second.
The events of the past few months have added immeasurably to the difficulties of negotiation. Incidents inseparable from a foreign occupation in any land have exasperated60 German opinion and reached depths of hatred61 which had never been stirred even by the Great War—the deportation62 of 75,000 Germans from their homes in the Ruhr area, the repression63, the shooting, the starving, the holding up of food trains until essential supplies rot. The myriad64 insolences of unchallengeable force, the passions which make French policy so intractable are entirely65 attributable to the German occupation of France. Frenchmen are now sowing the same seeds of anger in the German breast. Hatreds66 are bad negotiators. That is why I despair of a real settlement.
But Germany may collapse. She might even[Pg 223] break up, temporarily. The authority of the Central Government has already largely disappeared. There is practically no collection of taxes. The mark has gone down in a little over a week from 1,000,000 to the ￡ to 27,000,000.[3] How can any Government collect taxes in such a fugitive67 and attenuated68 currency? You might as well try to collect land taxes on the tail of a comet. The state of the currency is but a symptom of the general disintegration69. Berlin has ceased to wield70 any influence in Bavaria, and the Monarchy71 might be restored in that Province at no distant date. There is a movement in the Rhineland to set up a Republic freed from the dominion72 of Prussia. This movement is fostered by French agencies and financed by French subventions. If it is declared Prussia will not be allowed to suppress it. We may, therefore, soon witness a Rhineland Republic whose glorious freedom and independence will be jealously guarded against internal as well as external foes73 by the coloured warriors74 of Senegal and Cochin-China. Saxony might be captured by Communists and Prussia be torn between Monarchist and Communist. These are not unlikely [Pg 224]happenings. Is it too much to say they are not altogether out of the computation of French statesmanship? If Germany dissolves, then the Rhineland and the Ruhr would remain under the dominion of France. France would not secure reparations, but she would enjoy security, and she would, so it is conjectured75, enormously enhance her power in the world. An old French dream would be realised. The work of Bismarck would be undone76 and the achievement of Napoleon would be restored and perpetuated77. There is an old Welsh adage78 which says that it is easy to kindle79 a fire on an old hearthstone. This idea of a Rhineland under French domination is the old hearthstone of Charlemagne. Mazarin sought to relight its flames. Napoleon the First kindled80 on it a blaze that scorched81 Europe. Napoleon the Third had hopes of warming his chilling fortunes at the glow of its embers, and now the great victory of 1918 has set French ambitions once more reviving the fires on the old hearthstone of a Rhineland ruled by the Frank.
Altogether it is a bad look-out for Europe.
London, August 6th, 1923.
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1
muddle
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| n.困惑，混浊状态；vt.使混乱，使糊涂，使惊呆；vi.胡乱应付，混乱 | |
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detriment
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| n.损害；损害物，造成损害的根源 | |
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3
growling
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| n.吠声, 咆哮声 v.怒吠, 咆哮, 吼 | |
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4
futile
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| adj.无效的，无用的，无希望的 | |
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5
deafening
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| adj. 振耳欲聋的, 极喧闹的 动词deafen的现在分词形式 | |
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6
mischief
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| n.损害，伤害，危害；恶作剧，捣蛋，胡闹 | |
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7
deluge
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| n./vt.洪水，暴雨，使泛滥 | |
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8
diligent
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| adj.勤勉的，勤奋的 | |
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9
equilibrium
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| n.平衡，均衡，相称，均势，平静 | |
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10
determined
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| adj.坚定的；有决心的 | |
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11
possessed
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| adj.疯狂的；拥有的，占有的 | |
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12
patriotism
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| n.爱国精神，爱国心，爱国主义 | |
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13
dense
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| a.密集的，稠密的，浓密的；密度大的 | |
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14
ultimatums
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| 最后通牒( ultimatum的名词复数 ) | |
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15
sterling
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| adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑) | |
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16
ascertain
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| vt.发现，确定，查明，弄清 | |
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17
allied
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| adj.协约国的；同盟国的 | |
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18
foretold
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| v.预言，预示( foretell的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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19
collapse
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| vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷 | |
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20
opposition
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| n.反对，敌对 | |
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21
optimists
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| n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 ) | |
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22
pessimists
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| n.悲观主义者( pessimist的名词复数 ) | |
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23
accurately
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| adv.准确地，精确地 | |
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24
exhausted
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| adj.极其疲惫的，精疲力尽的 | |
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25
devoted
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| adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的 | |
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26
honourable
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| adj.可敬的；荣誉的，光荣的 | |
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27
contemplated
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| adj. 预期的 动词contemplate的过去分词形式 | |
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28
advisers
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| 顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授 | |
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initiated
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| n. 创始人 adj. 新加入的 vt. 开始，创始，启蒙，介绍加入 | |
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30
memoranda
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| n. 备忘录, 便条 名词memorandum的复数形式 | |
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31
civilian
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| adj.平民的，民用的，民众的 | |
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32
functionaries
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| n.公职人员，官员( functionary的名词复数 ) | |
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33
pigeonholes
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| n.鸽舍出入口( pigeonhole的名词复数 )；小房间；文件架上的小间隔v.把…搁在分类架上( pigeonhole的第三人称单数 )；把…留在记忆中；缓办；把…隔成小格 | |
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34
transpire
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| v.(使)蒸发，(使)排出 ；泄露，公开 | |
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35
shovelled
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| v.铲子( shovel的过去式和过去分词 )；锹；推土机、挖土机等的)铲；铲形部份 | |
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36
wagons
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| n.四轮的运货马车( wagon的名词复数 )；铁路货车；小手推车 | |
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37
swell
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| vi.膨胀，肿胀；增长，增强 | |
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38
quota
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| n.（生产、进出口等的）配额，（移民的）限额 | |
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39
bluff
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| v.虚张声势，用假象骗人；n.虚张声势，欺骗 | |
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40
genial
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| adj.亲切的，和蔼的，愉快的，脾气好的 | |
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41
organisation
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| n.组织，安排，团体，有机休 | |
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42
alas
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| int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等) | |
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43
sweepings
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| n.笼统的( sweeping的名词复数 )；（在投票等中的）大胜；影响广泛的；包罗万象的 | |
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44
disapprove
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| v.不赞成，不同意，不批准 | |
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45
legitimate
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| adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法 | |
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46
hush
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| int.嘘，别出声；n.沉默，静寂；v.使安静 | |
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47
fixed
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| adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的 | |
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48
assent
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| v.批准，认可；n.批准，认可 | |
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49
swelling
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| n.肿胀 | |
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50
disapproved
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| v.不赞成( disapprove的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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51
undertaking
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| n.保证，许诺，事业 | |
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52
embark
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| vi.乘船，着手，从事，上飞机 | |
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53
destined
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| adj.命中注定的；(for)以…为目的地的 | |
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54
cryptically
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55
propitiatory
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| adj.劝解的；抚慰的；谋求好感的；哄人息怒的 | |
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56
gatherings
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| 聚集( gathering的名词复数 )； 收集； 采集； 搜集 | |
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57
emphatic
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| adj.强调的，着重的；无可置疑的，明显的 | |
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58
negotiation
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| n.谈判，协商 | |
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59
interpretation
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| n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理 | |
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60
exasperated
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| adj.恼怒的 | |
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61
hatred
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| n.憎恶，憎恨，仇恨 | |
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62
deportation
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| n.驱逐，放逐 | |
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63
repression
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| n.镇压，抑制，抑压 | |
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64
myriad
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| adj.无数的；n.无数，极大数量 | |
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65
entirely
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| ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地 | |
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66
hatreds
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| n.仇恨，憎恶( hatred的名词复数 )；厌恶的事 | |
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67
fugitive
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| adj.逃亡的，易逝的；n.逃犯，逃亡者 | |
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68
attenuated
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| v.（使）变细( attenuate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）变薄；（使）变小；减弱 | |
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69
disintegration
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| n.分散，解体 | |
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70
wield
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| vt.行使，运用，支配；挥，使用(武器等) | |
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71
monarchy
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| n.君主，最高统治者；君主政体，君主国 | |
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72
dominion
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| n.统治，管辖，支配权；领土，版图 | |
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73
foes
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| 敌人，仇敌( foe的名词复数 ) | |
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74
warriors
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| 武士，勇士，战士( warrior的名词复数 ) | |
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75
conjectured
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| 推测，猜测，猜想( conjecture的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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76
undone
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| a.未做完的，未完成的 | |
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77
perpetuated
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| vt.使永存（perpetuate的过去式与过去分词形式） | |
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78
adage
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| n.格言，古训 | |
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79
kindle
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| v.点燃，着火 | |
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80
kindled
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| （使某物）燃烧，着火( kindle的过去式和过去分词 )； 激起（感情等）； 发亮，放光 | |
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81
scorched
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| 烧焦，烤焦( scorch的过去式和过去分词 )； 使（植物）枯萎，把…晒枯； 高速行驶； 枯焦 | |
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