What will Mr. Stanley Baldwin and Lord Curzon do next? Much depends for Europe on that next step, and something for them also hangs upon their action or inaction. One is reminded of[Pg 226] the answer given by émile Ollivier to the question addressed to him as to his opinion of one of Napoleon the Third's experiments in constitutional government: "Si c'est une fin11, vous êtes perdu; si c'est un commencement, vous êtes fondé." That sage12 comment is equally applicable to the Curzon note.
We can only "wait and see," first for the French official reply, and second for the decision of the British Government upon that note. The only new factor in the situation that may have a determining influence on events is the accession of Herr Stresemann to the German Chancellorship13.[6] I know nothing of him beyond newspaper report, but he is generally supposed to be a man of energy, courage and resource. If that be true, his appointment to the official leadership of the German people may be an event of the first magnitude. We shall soon know what he is made of. Germany has suffered more from weak or misguided leadership in recent years than any great country in the world. It blundered her into the War, it blundered through the War, it blundered into the armistice14, it [Pg 227]blundered during the peace negotiations, and it has blundered her affairs badly after the peace. But no one can predict what Germany is capable of with a wise and strong leadership. Herr Stresemann has a responsibility cast upon him and an opportunity afforded him such as have not been given to any statesman since the days of Stein and his coadjutors for regenerating15 his country and lifting her out of the slough16 of despond in which she has been sinking deeper and deeper. Those who ignore the effect which powerful and magnetic personalities17 may have upon the fortunes of nations in despair must have forgotten their history books. The fall of Dr. Cuno and the rise of Herr Stresemann may well turn out to be a more decisive event than the despatch or the publication of the Curzon note. But if he lacks those rare qualities which alone can inspire a people in an emergency to heroic action and endurance, then there is nothing but chaos18 ahead of Germany. For the moment it is more important to keep a discerning eye on Herr Stresemann than to watch this endless fencing between Downing Street and the Quai d'Orsay.
It is not often I find myself in agreement with[Pg 228] M. Poincaré, but when he states that British unemployment is not attributable to the occupation of the Ruhr I am substantially in accord with him. In July last[7] I called the attention of the House of Commons to world conditions which injuriously affected19 our export trade and made unemployment on a large scale inevitable20 in the British labour market for some time to come. We are more dependent on our overseas trade, export, entrep?t, shipping21 and incidental business than any country in the world. Almost half our industrial and commercial activities are associated with outside trade in all its forms. That is not a full statement of the case, for if this important section of our business were to languish22, the home trade would also necessarily suffer by the consequential23 diminution24 in the purchasing capacity of our people. Before the French ever entered the Ruhr our overseas trade was down to 75 per cent. of its pre-war level. Our population has increased by two millions since 1913; our taxation25 has increased fourfold; our national debt tenfold; but our business is down 25 per cent. To what is this fall in our outside sales and services attributable? It is the direct consequence[Pg 229] of the War. Our customers throughout Europe are impoverished26. What is just as bad, our customers' customers are impoverished. So that neither can buy at our stalls the quantities or the qualities which they could be relied upon to purchase before the War. Until Europe can buy, Australia, Canada, India and China cannot pay, as the Prime Minister pointed27 out in his last speech in the House of Commons. Germany, before the War, bought Australian wool, Canadian grain, Indian jute and tea, and the proceeds as often as not went to pay for goods bought by those countries in British markets. The same observation applies to Russia, Austria, and the Levantine countries. The purchasing capacity of Europe must, therefore, be replenished28, a process which will, at best, take years of patient industry. The mischief29 of the Ruhr lies not in the creation of bad trade, but in retarding30 the process of recovery. It has undoubtedly31 had that effect.
Before the French entered the Ruhr trade was gradually if slowly improving all round. The prices of 1922 were lower than those of 1921; therefore, the contrast in sterling32 was not as apparent as it became on the examination of weights and[Pg 230] measures. The export figures, notably33 in manufactured goods, show a decided34 increase on those of the preceding year. This advance is reflected in the statistics of unemployment. During the first ten months of 1922 there was a reduction of over 500,000 in the numbers of the registered unemployed35. The succeeding ten months give only a slight improvement. Something has happened to arrest the rate of progress towards better times. This is where the Ruhr comes in. Even if it is not, to quote the Prime Minister, a penknife stuck in the watch and stopping the works, it is certainly more than a grain of dust which has perceptibly slowed the action of the sensitive machinery36 of trade.
The effect of the Ruhr disturbance37 would continue for some time if the penknife were removed now. For the moment M. Poincaré is wedging it in more deeply and firmly. Even if he withdrew it now, the works would not recover their normal steadiness for a long while. During these last disturbing months Germany has become appreciably38 poorer. Her wealth production has been depressed39 throughout most of her industrial areas. To a certain extent Lorraine and Belgium have also been[Pg 231] affected adversely40. The reservoir of wealth upon which industry draws has not been filling up as it ought if the world is ever to recover.
These things are hidden from France. She is a more self-contained country than Britain—perhaps also a more self-centred country. Even after the Napoleonic wars, which drained her best manhood and exhausted41 her fine nervous virility42, she suffered from no interval43 of economic depression. Her great and victorious44 rival across the Channel lumbered45 painfully through fifteen years of misery46, poverty and distress47. Her own population, basking48 in the sunshine of prosperity, regarded across the narrow waters, with a natural contentment, the dark fogs that enveloped49 and drenched50 their old enemies. Commiseration51 or sympathy from them at that time was not to be expected. We had fought them for twenty years with an inveterate52 pertinacity53 and at last beaten them to the ground and occupied their capital. To-day we suffer because we helped to save their capital from foreign occupation and their country from being humbled54 to the dust by a foreign foe55. Neither in French speeches, notes, nor articles is there any appreciation56 shown of that cardinal57 fact in the situation.
[Pg 232]
All that is clear at the moment is the stubbornness of the French attitude. M. Poincaré has not so far receded58 one millimetre from his original position. Threats and cajoleries alike are answered by a repetition of the same formul?, with the slight variations in word or phrase which one would expect from a practised writer. But the theme is always the same and the application is identical to the point of monotony. He is not winning much coal out of his discourses59 and literary exercises, but to do him justice he is getting something for his country. Last year Lord Balfour, in the note he sent to the Allies on behalf of the British Government, offered to forego all claims for debts and reparations if Britain were secured against payment of the American debt. That meant a surrender of claims aggregating60 over ￡3,000,000,000 in return for an assured ￡1,000,000,000. A very handsome and generous offer. The Curzon note proposes to surrender all our claims for a precarious61 return of ￡710,000,000. The Ruhr occupation has already brought down the British claim against the Allies by ￡290,000,000. M. Poincaré may not be able to extract reparations out of Germany, but in seven months he has succeeded in forcing ￡290,000,000[Pg 233] out of Great Britain. He will certainly ask for more—and probably receive it.
Mr. Bonar Law was right when he said that under certain conditions Great Britain would be the only country to pay a war indemnity62. Those conditions have arisen under his successors.
Criccieth, August 20th, 1923.
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1
despatch
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| n./v.(dispatch)派遣；发送；n.急件；新闻报道 | |
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rumour
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| n.谣言，谣传，传闻 | |
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bolstered
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| v.支持( bolster的过去式和过去分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助 | |
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destined
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| adj.命中注定的；(for)以…为目的地的 | |
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prominence
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| n.突出；显著；杰出；重要 | |
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rigid
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| adj.严格的，死板的；刚硬的，僵硬的 | |
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courteous
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| adj.彬彬有礼的，客气的 | |
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entente
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| n.协定；有协定关系的各国 | |
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maladroit
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| adj.笨拙的 | |
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negotiations
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| 协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过 | |
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fin
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| n.鳍；(飞机的)安定翼 | |
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sage
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| n.圣人，哲人；adj.贤明的，明智的 | |
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chancellorship
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| 长官的职位或任期 | |
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armistice
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| n.休战，停战协定 | |
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regenerating
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| v.新生，再生( regenerate的现在分词 )；正反馈 | |
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slough
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| v.蜕皮，脱落，抛弃 | |
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personalities
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| n. 诽谤，（对某人容貌、性格等所进行的）人身攻击； 人身攻击；人格, 个性, 名人( personality的名词复数 ) | |
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chaos
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| n.混乱，无秩序 | |
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affected
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| adj.不自然的，假装的 | |
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inevitable
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| adj.不可避免的，必然发生的 | |
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shipping
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| n.船运（发货，运输，乘船） | |
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languish
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| vi.变得衰弱无力，失去活力，（植物等）凋萎 | |
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consequential
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| adj.作为结果的，间接的；重要的 | |
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diminution
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| n.减少；变小 | |
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taxation
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| n.征税，税收，税金 | |
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impoverished
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| adj.穷困的，无力的，用尽了的v.使（某人）贫穷( impoverish的过去式和过去分词 )；使（某物）贫瘠或恶化 | |
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pointed
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| adj.尖的，直截了当的 | |
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replenished
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| 补充( replenish的过去式和过去分词 )； 重新装满 | |
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mischief
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| n.损害，伤害，危害；恶作剧，捣蛋，胡闹 | |
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retarding
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| 使减速( retard的现在分词 )； 妨碍； 阻止； 推迟 | |
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undoubtedly
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| adv.确实地，无疑地 | |
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sterling
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| adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑) | |
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notably
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| adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地 | |
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decided
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| adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的 | |
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unemployed
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| adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的 | |
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machinery
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| n.(总称)机械，机器；机构 | |
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disturbance
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| n.动乱，骚动；打扰，干扰；(身心)失调 | |
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appreciably
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| adv.相当大地 | |
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depressed
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| adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的 | |
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adversely
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| ad.有害地 | |
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exhausted
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| adj.极其疲惫的，精疲力尽的 | |
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42
virility
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| n.雄劲，丈夫气 | |
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43
interval
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| n.间隔，间距；幕间休息，中场休息 | |
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victorious
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| adj.胜利的，得胜的 | |
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lumbered
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| 砍伐（lumber的过去式与过去分词形式） | |
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misery
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| n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦 | |
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47
distress
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| n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛 | |
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48
basking
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| v.晒太阳，取暖( bask的现在分词 )；对…感到乐趣；因他人的功绩而出名；仰仗…的余泽 | |
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49
enveloped
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| v.包围，笼罩，包住( envelop的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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50
drenched
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| adj.湿透的；充满的v.使湿透( drench的过去式和过去分词 )；在某人（某物）上大量使用（某液体） | |
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51
commiseration
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| n.怜悯，同情 | |
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52
inveterate
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| adj.积习已深的，根深蒂固的 | |
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53
pertinacity
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| n.执拗，顽固 | |
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54
humbled
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| adj. 卑下的，谦逊的，粗陋的 vt. 使 ... 卑下，贬低 | |
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55
foe
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| n.敌人，仇敌 | |
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56
appreciation
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| n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨 | |
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57
cardinal
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| n.(天主教的)红衣主教；adj.首要的，基本的 | |
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58
receded
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| v.逐渐远离( recede的过去式和过去分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题 | |
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59
discourses
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| 论文( discourse的名词复数 )； 演说； 讲道； 话语 | |
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60
aggregating
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| 总计达…( aggregate的现在分词 )； 聚集，集合； （使）聚集 | |
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61
precarious
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| adj.不安定的，靠不住的；根据不足的 | |
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indemnity
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| n.赔偿，赔款，补偿金 | |
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